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Monday Final Ratings: 'The Voice', 'DWTS' Adjusted Up; '90210', 'Revolution', 'Partners', '2 Broke Girls', 'Mike & Molly', 'Hawaii Five-0', and 'How I Met Your Mother' Adjusted Down

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October 9th, 2012

 

The Voice, and Dancing with the Stars, were each adjusted up a tenth among adults 18-49, while Partners, 2Broke Girls, Mike & Molly, and Hawaii Five-O were adjusted down three tenths, and How I Met Your Mother, 90210 and Revolution were adjusted down a single tenth versus Monday's preliminary ratings.

Final Monday broadcast primetime ratings for Monday, October 8, 2012

Time Net Show 18-49 rating 18-49 Share Viewers Live+SD (million)
8:00PM NBC The Voice (8-10PM) 4.8 9 12.89
CBS How I Met Your Mother 3.1 9 7.82
ABC Dancing with the Stars: All Stars (8-10PM) 2.2 6 13.55
FOX Bones 2.0 5 7.20
CW 90210 -P 0.4 1 0.94
tvbythenumbers.com
8:30 PM CBS Partners 1.9 5 5.71
9:00PM CBS 2 Broke Girls 3.4 8 9.42
FOX The Mob Doctor 0.9 2 3.36
CW Gossip Girl -P 0.4 1 0.78
tvbythenumbers.com
9:30PM CBS Mike & Molly 2.8 7 8.67
tvbythenumbers.com
10:00PM NBC Revolution 3.0 8 8.01
ABC Castle 2.2 6 10.61
CBS Hawaii Five-0 1.9 5 8.39

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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2012 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

 
  • Danny

    Can’t they move Castle to a different night? or how about a different network? i’m sure Fox would kill to have it or even NBC…..heck, wherever it goes it will be a fan favorite and probably have even more viewers coming.

    @Dawn
    you’re correct, Castle hasn’t been advertised at all. Not during the day time. Whenever The View is on in the morning, you dont know how many ads for Nashville I’ve seen, and that doesn’t even debut until tomorrow night. So they can advertise the heck out of that and Revenge but not the most successful show on ABC in Castle? I dont get that. The only reason it wasn’t good ratings wise last week was because of the leaked photo of the “bikini girl” straddling Castle, that’s it! Also, a 2.2 is a solid rating and its consistent week to week for Castle. Even with a bad lead-in. To only be down two tenths from season 4 finale til now is pretty incredible, especially since every network is hurting.

  • Patrick Gillease

    @ Ultima…The CW being dropped by Cablevision affects FAR MORE than 1 % of The CW’s total audience, you moron! New York City alone has over 8 million residents, and Cablevision serves all of New York City (yes, in conjunction with Time Warner, but still), its boroughs, much of upstate New York, most of New Jersey, and parts of New England. That’s much of the entire Northeast! Nielsen households also are heavily concentrated in Metropolitan areas, and since their sample size is so relatively small, a few dozen or more Nielsen households that can’t watch CW shows means multiple tenth drops in ratings for The CW, which is exactly what happened this week. Wanna bet ALL CW shows will be dismally rated and much lower than recent seasonal averages until the Cablevision conflict is resolved?! I guarantee it!

  • Ultima

    @Patrick Gillease
    The CW being dropped by Cablevision affects FAR MORE than 1 % of The CW’s total audience, you moron!

    I misread subscribers as viewers, when I should have read it as households.

    The Cablevision/Tribune spat is affecting 3% of The CW’s audience – still a small enough fraction of the audience that it’s far less than the rounding error in the reported ratings.

  • Cameron

    Not a single show on the CW has had a good start, I’m kinda worried for the Vampire Diaries. They’ll do better than everyone else, but I dont want to see them lower than normal.

  • Ultima

    Here’s maths for you…

    114.2 million households, 95% coverage by CW, Cablevision has ~3.3 to 3.6 million subscribers (per Deadline and Variety).

    That’s ~3% of their viewers.

    The rounding error for a show with a 0.4 rating is +/- 12.5%.

    Before calling someone a moron, you should at least have a clue what you’re talking about.

  • Ale

    I really want to watch Carry Diaries (don’t jugde me!) but this CW numbers are bad and I’m scared this would affect the show. If Arrow isn’t a hit the network is dead!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @Ultima, Cablevision had 3.3 million subscribers in June, 2011. Their current number is likely close to that.

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2011/06/09/despite-cord-cutting-chatter-tv-service-subscribers-grew-by-475000-in-q1-2011/95229/

    As you noted, they’re about 3% of CW’s potential viewers. CW ratings may be low, but blaming Cablevision is nonsense.

  • eridapo

    The most important number is not the demo or ratings. It is how much money a show makes for a television network versus the costs to produce.

    Ratings and demo come in to the equation because they help advertisers/ networks executives determine how much to pay/ to charge for a commercial spot on television.

    How much money those rates generate are by and large the main source of revenue for most television shows, but they are not the only one.

    When a show is sold into syndication, the money the producing studio (or network depending who owns it) becomes just as important and in some cases even more valuable than money generated through ads. It is for this reason that sometimes shows with even a low demo (and ratings) can be renewed over higher rated shows.

    No one here knows the actual costs to produce an hour of primetime. All we have are estimates which might be unreliable.

    The only thing that matters is that as long as the revenue from all sources exceeds the cost to produce the show has the potential to be renewed regardless of its ratings. If it is making money, it will be renewed. If it is losing money, it will be cancelled. If a new show can make more money than an existing one, the new show will be produced over the old. That is the bottom line.

    If you want to know what shows charge for ad rates, go to the source

    http://adage.com/article/media/chart-american-idol-nfl-duke-priciest-tv-spot/230547/#wed

    You will be surprised by the results… The link provides the ad rates for the 2011 Television season.

    Below are the rates for most 1 hour dramas:

    NCIS 154K
    NCISLA 133K
    Unforgettable 131K
    Body of Proof 122K
    Parenthood 96K
    Criminal Minds 137K
    CSI 135K
    Revenge 119K
    Law SVU 104K
    PP 139K
    Greys 203K
    POI 174K
    The Mentalist 154K
    Bones 145K
    OUAT 135K
    TAR 124K
    TGW 137K
    Castle 122K
    H50 130K

    What can those rates tell us? NCISLA and CM which in 2011 rated nearly a 5/10 higher than Bones or PP had ad rates that were in the same ball park as those two shows. Isn’t that interesting. NCSILA and CM had demo ratings of 3s while Bones and PP were around 2.6 or lower. So how much is a 1/10, 2/10, or even 3/10s of a demo really worth. Based on those rates, not much.

    A show that gets a 2.0 (The Good Wife) can command the same as those that generate a 3.0.

    The 18-49 demo doesn’t really tell us anything. The stuff the networks and advertisers do get is the key. That information goes into greater detail with demographic information such as Income and Education of the people that are watching. Unfortunately we don’t have that, so we don’t really know how valuable a show is to a network..

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @eridapo, those preseason adage lists are estimates only and are based on the previous years ratings. Advertisers end up paying for the ratings points they actually get.

  • eridapo

    @Bill,

    I found the estimated ad rates to be surprising, and I know they were based on the prior year ratings performance for the shows.

    That is why in my example I used shows like CM/NCISLA/Bones/PP. I’m familiar with their 2010-11 ratings performance. The difference in ratings between those shows was only about 5/10 of a point. Yet the difference in the money they commanded for the 2011-12 season (though estimated) is minimal.

    BTW Do you know when the 2012 estimated rates will be available?

  • Ashley

    @Kavyn B & TB might be a hit for The CW. It’s a supernatural love story. Plus it has Kristin Kreuk from Smallville.

  • Patty

    What does SD stand for?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    SD = same day DVR viewing up to 3AM the morning after the telecast.

  • Mate

    I’m from Australia, so its hard to understand your ratings and networks at times, but I’m so lost as to why the CW is only on at 8-10 and only MON-FRI…. Random. The whole network needs a revamp!

    MONDAYS (New Comedy Night)
    7:00 PM- New Show
    7:30 PM- New Show
    8:00 PM- New Show
    8:30 PM- New Show

    TUESDAYS (Teen Drama Night)
    7:30 PM- New Show
    8:30 PM- Hart of Dixie
    9:30 PM- 90210 (Half Final Season)
    9:30 PM- The Carrie Diaries (Mid Season)

    WEDNESDAYS (Reality Scripted Night)
    8:00 PM- New Show (Game)
    9:00 PM- New Show (Real Housewives of…. Style)

    THURSDAYS (Fantasy Night)
    7:00 PM- New Show
    8:00 PM- The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 PM- Supernatural (Half Final Season)
    9:00 PM- New Show (Mid Season)

    FRIDAYS (Action Night)
    7:30 PM- New Show
    8:30 PM- Nikita
    9:30 PM- Arrow

    SATURDAYS (Movie Night)
    6:00 PM- Kids Movie
    7:30 PM- Family Movie
    9:00 PM- Mature Adult Movie

    SUNDAYS (Drama Night)
    7:30 PM- New Show
    8:30 PM- New Show
    9:30 PM- New Show
    10:30 PM- The CW Vault Episodes

    Thats what i think they should invest in! Make it a weekly network!

  • Jeff

    @Bill & @Ultima,

    Quick question. Earlier in the thread, Houston’s potenial viewers (2% of US total) was stated as having a significant on CBS’s numbers, but later Cablevision’s 3% number was calculated to be totally insignficant to CW’s numbers.

    Can Houston’s 2% really have that much of an effect on CBS if NYC’s numbers are insignificant?

  • Lee Posner

    You are so right. “Partners” is terrible. I sat thru three episodes and hardly cracked a smile. I want my 90 minutes back.

  • Ultima

    @Jeff
    Quick question. Earlier in the thread, Houston’s potenial viewers (2% of US total) was stated as having a significant on CBS’s numbers, but later Cablevision’s 3% number was calculated to be totally insignficant to CW’s numbers.

    Can Houston’s 2% really have that much of an effect on CBS if NYC’s numbers are insignificant?

    In the CW’s case, your only missing out a 3% segment of the population which is probably viewing your shows around the national average (0.4). That’s only a loss of a hundreth of a ratings point (~0.01).

    In the CBS/MNF case, you have a 2% segment of the population viewing something else that’s pulling in gigantic numbers. The Texans probably pulled a 25.0+ local household rating for that game. Some of those viewers are watching on ESPN and I don’t know the breakdown, but as an example, let’s say the CBS affiliate gets a local 18-49 rating of 10.0 for the game.

    Now, 2% getting a 10.0 is a +0.2 bump to the ratings. And in the finals, that 2% reports a 0.0 (or whatever insignificant amount it pulled if it airs late night). There’s a loss of 0.2 in the finals. The actual loss was a bit higher, maybe the local rating was higher or it was unfriendly rounding (3.66 to 3.44 is a 0.3 drop) or there were other CBS factors outside of MNF.

  • eridapo

    @ Jeff

    The size of the affect is dependent on the ratings of the program in the local market. The Houston Texans are undefeated and have a huge fan following. Without knowing the actual numbers and simply comparing the ratings for NFL games when air in local markets, we can say that the game probably scored a 20+ demo share in the Houston area. That size share when spread out nationally could cause the shift of anywhere 2/10 to 4/10s.

    Example: 20 Share in Houston and 2.0 in the rest of the country. 100-2=98% (balance of the country not carrying Football)

    Math = 20*.02+2*.98=.4+1.96= 2.36

    Example: 10 Share in Houston and 2.0 in the rest of the country

    Math =10*.02+2*.98=.2+1.96= 2.16

    Thus the large demo share in a city like Houston can have huge impacts in the ratings.

    Since the ratings for the CW are small anyway, the impact on the ratings would be too small to measure. Instead of movement in the tenths, it might impact in the one hundreds.

    Example: CW scores a 2.0 in NY and .5 everywhere else. The Cablevision impact is 3% so 97% unaffected.

    Math = 2*.03+.5*.97= .06+.485=.545 round up to nearest tenth is .5 (No effect on the ratings).

    Example: CW scores a 1.0 in NY and .5 everywhere else

    Math = 1*.03+.5*.97= .03+.485=.515 round up to nearest tenth is .5 (No effect)

    Given the history of CW shows, it is unlikely that any of its shows would score anything above a 1.0 share in any area of the country (much less NY). The probability is had the CW shows aired in NY the ratings would be consistent with the rest of the country (around a .5).

  • Ultima

    @Mate
    I’m from Australia, so its hard to understand your ratings and networks at times, but I’m so lost as to why the CW is only on at 8-10 and only MON-FRI

    The CW is a national network that provides programming (primarily produced by the two production companies that have split ownership – CBS and Warner Bros).

    The CW has affiliation contracts with numerous local broadcast stations in most U.S. markets that involve the affilate paying a fee to The CW in order to air their programming during certain hours (weeknights 8-10pm being the relevant hours here).

    The affiliates control the rest of their hours, so The CW would need to negotiate an expansion with the affiliates if they wanted to add to their lineup (it actually used to be longer – they programmed Sundays up until a couple years ago).

    The issue here is that the affiliates like their 10pm local news (so it’s not airing against ABC/CBS/NBC and so they can run syndicated programming against those news programs – FOX affiliates also like this setup). Furthermore, the 7pm hour in some of the affiliates (at least the Tribune ones) is likely higher rated than primetime at this point with syndicated runs of shows like Friends.

    There’s simply no way the CW will ever convince the affiliates to give them more time; their issue is keeping the time they have (or staying around at all). CBS and Warner Bros are profitable because they have sold their shows to Netflix, Hulu, etc. The affiliates get nothing out of that and are the big losers with the current CW setup.

  • June

    I don’t know why people is so puzzled with h50 numbers . This show always has been the weakest link on Monday CBS nights, dropping as a rock after M&M and always getting lower numbers that the show it replaced CSI Miami. RIP. And all of with Castle as only competition.
    In the first season already got a 2.5 demo once and last season after February all 2.5/2.6. So now that NBC is a player too, the numbers of Hawaii are totally expected and deserved.
    I think this will make TNT and others reconsider buying again a show while still is in the first season. Although Hawaii was trending down since the start, this was expected. Guess CBS was hoping NBC to keep bombing on Mondays. . Bad choice by TNT. A total rip off. :)

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