NBC: 'Revolution' Ratings Keep Falling, But It's A Long Way From Danger

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

October 9th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 7, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice :cry: :cry: 0.67
Up All Night :cry: :cry: 0.68
30 Rock final season 0.70
Guys With Kids :| :| :| 0.80
Grimm (F) :) :) :) :) 0.80
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.86
Parenthood :) :) :) :) 0.86
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 0.98
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
The Office final season 1.06
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.77

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The adults 18-49 ratings for NBC scripted rookie darling Revolution keep falling week to week [4.2, 3.4, 3.2, 3.0] which causes some of our commenters to predict its demise. However, because NBC's scripted ratings are otherwise so completely woeful (only 2 other shows broke a 2.0 rating last week, and one is in its final season), Revolution ratings can still fall a very long way before it's in danger of becoming a meal for the Cancellation Bear.

How low? If the season stopped today, NBC would certainly be renewing scripted shows averaging a 1.7 rating, and maybe a 1.6. Will Revolution ratings fall that far? Never say never.

And for commenters who'll cry foul at Revolution's "retention", don't bring that Retentionista nonsense around here.

Up All Night and Animal Practice ratings aren't falling every week, but are already so low as to make them both likely to be canceled.

Where's the bear? He's not just in the NBC post this season, he's moving around!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Having a strong lead-in is great for a show, but eventually you’ve got to be able to keep viewers on your own merit or they won’t stick around.”

    Yep, and if Revolution changes timeslots next season we’ll have to see what happens, but for the purposes of predicting a renewal for a second season that’s irrelevant.

  • Other Than That Mrs. Lincoln How Was The Play?

    Revolutions real test will come after the winter hiatus – home of the Great Black Hole that swallows show ratings – if Revolution loses too much momentum it will do the dance of death with the Hole until its pulled inside and crushed. If it tracks like NBC The Event then its doomed.

    The key will be if Revolution can sustain acceptable ratings when it returns. If it finishes the season every tick below 2.5 reduces its chances. Once it fall below 2.0.

    A number of other shows will feed the Great Black Hole a diet of Mob Doctors and Animal Doctors and others. Will that satisfy The Hole?

  • THE OLD MAN

    Since we know that Chicago Fire (the dullest of all pilots I’ve seen so far), Whitney, Community & Smash are all a given, I think the bear will be munching on more shows here than in his roaming around. Why leave when he has such a feast!

  • Dean-W

    Glad to see SVU certain to be Renewed ! This show is doing very well for a 14th season. Wait to see how it will rate at 9.

  • Jiji Moran

    About “Revolution”… would also want to know why half of the characters, who are supposed to be from the Mid-West, have Brittish accents.

  • AppleStinx

    Other Than That Mrs. Lincoln How Was The Play? wrote: “…A number of other shows will feed the Great Black Hole a diet of Mob Doctors and Animal Doctors and others. Will that satisfy The Hole?”

    Those shows have a better chance at survival than The Hole has against The Bear. My money is on The Bear eating The Hole alive. :grin:

  • thecarelessmind

    This show could be promising, although it might of been a bit more gritty, darker, and feel more real on a AMC or FX network. There are a few likes and dislike I have so far.
    Likes –
    The idea, a world wide blackout. Man and woman starting from scratch. Im still on the fence about a device which controls the the power (hope its not like Pennywise becoming a spider in IT). There is a lot of questions still, which I do like. Giancarlo Esposito is always a great present. (Gus Fring in Breaking Bad)
    Dislike –
    The main character Tracy Spiridakos. Her acting could easily draw me away from the show. Its hard to watch when she delivers her lines. BLINK for crying out loud. Also the vibe feels like I have seen this before. The tempo drags and the score is bad.
    I will continue to watch this and see if I make it over the bridge. C-

  • MattM

    Actually no, people aren’t just leaving their TVs on when the Voice ends. If people didn’t want to watch Revolution, they’d change the channel as they did when Smash came on last season. The lead in certainly helps but pretending that Revolution isn’t the obvious hit it is for NBC is complete nonsense and just hating for the sake of hating.

  • Brandon

    I had high hopes for Revolution since they ran the ad campaigns, but the show is just not that interesting for the scenario they set up. It doesn’t have that Jericho serious feel to it. The back and forth, “I’m gonna leave the group, Charlie cries, something happens, I’m not gonna leave” every episode is just annoying and has no realistic value whatsoever to the show.

  • Dan

    Revolution will likely become another The Event or FlashForward but with The Voice lead in it could be here to stay especially on the “Desperate for Dramas NBC”

    My guess is that with The Voice lead in, Revolution will be renewed for another season but its too early to tell.

    My guess is with Community and Whitney postponed, those will take the place of Animal Practice and Guys with Kids which will likely be pulled after their October 10th airing. Those new shows may be moved to fridays.

    My hope is that when 30 Rock is done with its final season and Up All Night finishes its 13 episode order by December. In January Go on and The New Normal will take those slots Thursdays at and 8:30 so Biggest Loser or something else can air Tuesday 8-10 until The Voice returns.

  • The End

    I had this show down as hitting cancellation numbers before the end of its run. Looking likely my prediction could realistically come true.

  • The Black Knight

    Charlie is killing the show. She doesn’t even make a good Katniss Everdeen rip off. Our continued viewing of this show literally is week to week. Maybe if The Bear would just jump out of the woods and eat Charlie, the show would improve, The Bear could wait outside the door at 30 Rock for the execs and everyone would be happy. Otherwise all we have to look forward to is drivel from another Bear–Grylls.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “The key will be if Revolution can sustain acceptable ratings when it returns.”

    Who could disagree with that obvious point?

    “If it finishes the season every tick below 2.5 reduces its chances. Once it fall below 2.0.”

    Nonsense.

    There is zero chance the show gets canceled if it’s still at 2.0 or above in the Spring. At a 1.8 or 1.9, there is almost no chance it gets canceled. I’d even like its chances at a 1.7.

    If it’s averaging a 1.8 or 1.9 rating this spring, it could be the ONLY NBC scripted show averaging that high (except for maybe The Office, which is gone anyway).

  • tjw

    @Jim:

    Having a strong lead-in is great for a show, but eventually you’ve got to be able to keep viewers on your own merit or they won’t stick around.

    People have been saying that about Castle for years now, since Dancing With the Stars was pulling in 4s and 5s while they were getting 2s and 3s. Now, Castle is in its fifth year following DWTS and is actually getting better ratings. Sometimes two shows on the same network and the same night just don’t share that big of an audience.

  • Anthony

    Agnes – just postings facts and looking for answers

    and most posts are about NBC due to the fact that they are the major network in trouble, and have so many shows with low ratings that are dropping

    Does anyone have any solutions?
    Or is NBC current status acceptable?

    Except that you are ignoring the fact that NBC is up year over year, when all the other networks are down. NBC has done some things (and is continuing to do some things) to pull itself out of it’s nosedive (brought on by the previous owners/network heads). Looking at it objectively from the data from this year, the other three networks seem like they are in more trouble.

  • erwan from france

    Hey americans, what do you think about the X factor this year ? I think it’s great, and i’m sad because it dosen’t work and would be surely canceled ! In france, it have been canceled after 2 seasons too !

  • Barbie

    Grimm <3

  • Randy

    I think for the people that say since the Voice is doing good that because of that, than a scripted show like Revolution would do somewhat good to. You have some people that don’t like reality shows at all, so they would never watch the Voice, and there are some people that just love reality even more than scripted. So, having a reality show that is doing good doesn’t necessarily mean that the scripted show after is going to get all those people that liked the Voice.

    Personally, I think some syfy shows should come to nbc because they are doing so bad such as Warehouse 13, Hollywood Treasure (I think it’s really stupid how no regular tv network has a good auction type of show, yet a show like Pawn Stars is almost number one on cable all the time!), and Fact or Faked Paranomal Witness.

  • elizabeth

    If Revolution survives beyond the six eps it has in the can, or at most a “back six,” I’d be very surprised, it is SOOOO bad. It is a group of annoying characters in search of a plausible story. I liked Terra Nova better than this, at least it made sense, had some genuinely scary action, and the actors didn’t make me nuts with their molasses acting!* (Well, actually a couple of the kids in that show were a little annoying, but not like this.) Not that TN was high lit or anything, but good family fun. This thing is just a mess in every possible way. No, I take that back. The backstory of the dead character was actually pretty interesting. Too bad they didn’t make that the show, instead of this nonsense. I love the stuff done by both Kripke and Abrams in the past, but this is an example of how sometimes synergy kicks with two different creatives working together for the first time, and sometimes it fails completely. This is a fail, and in fact, it’s really hard to see their fingerprints at all. I predict the show will keep losing viewers, especially as they killed off the one likeable character last night. *(I do enjoy G. Esposito in everything he does, but I wish he were back in Storybrooke causing trouble there, rather than in this mess. As for my beloved E. Mitchell, she is being wasted in the worst possible way here. Hell, send her to Storybrooke too! She would make a great Oz or Wonderland character.)

  • Fakeem

    Chicago Fire looks like a poor retool of Third Watch. Why even bother?

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