NBC: 'Revolution' Ratings Keep Falling, But It's A Long Way From Danger

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

October 9th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 7, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice :cry: :cry: 0.67
Up All Night :cry: :cry: 0.68
30 Rock final season 0.70
Guys With Kids :| :| :| 0.80
Grimm (F) :) :) :) :) 0.80
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.86
Parenthood :) :) :) :) 0.86
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 0.98
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
The Office final season 1.06
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.77

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The adults 18-49 ratings for NBC scripted rookie darling Revolution keep falling week to week [4.2, 3.4, 3.2, 3.0] which causes some of our commenters to predict its demise. However, because NBC's scripted ratings are otherwise so completely woeful (only 2 other shows broke a 2.0 rating last week, and one is in its final season), Revolution ratings can still fall a very long way before it's in danger of becoming a meal for the Cancellation Bear.

How low? If the season stopped today, NBC would certainly be renewing scripted shows averaging a 1.7 rating, and maybe a 1.6. Will Revolution ratings fall that far? Never say never.

And for commenters who'll cry foul at Revolution's "retention", don't bring that Retentionista nonsense around here.

Up All Night and Animal Practice ratings aren't falling every week, but are already so low as to make them both likely to be canceled.

Where's the bear? He's not just in the NBC post this season, he's moving around!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Anthony

    If Revolution survives beyond the six eps it has in the can, or at most a “back six,” I’d be very surprised

    Prepare to be amazed then. Revolution has already been picked up for a Full season, so there will be 22 episodes made this year.

  • Rob

    Hey Elizabeth, Revolution has already been given a full season order so not sure what “back six” you are talking about. If it is so bad, why are you watching it?

  • mayorofsmpleton

    I don’t care for Revolution but can we quit acting like 15 years without power would cause everyone to have dreadful teeth?

    You realize people can have decent oral hygiene without electricity right?

  • mayorofsmpleton

    elizabeth,
    You’re joking right? The show would have to shed HALF the current audience of 3.2 18-49 year olds to even be in the cancellation territory.

    Like it or not (I don’t) — it’s around likely until Spring 2014. The trend looks like it’s going to probably keep dropping, settling at low 2′s by spring 2013, which means it will be looking at a definite renewal.

    Beyond that, it’s going to depend on NBC’s prospects.

  • Ricky

    Once again, let’s play…The Elimination Game:

    The rules (for those who need to know or maybe just forgot): Each show on the networks* (only the ones that have already series-premiered, or will be definitely returning later in the fall**) will be listed with 25 points each in the R/C Index threads.*** Give points to your favorite shows, take away from your un-favorites. Points will be given as follows: +3, +2, +1, -1, -2, and -3. (You must make each one or your vote is invalid.) When a show reaches 0 points, it is eliminated. If a show reaches 100 points, it will be “locked” and set aside in the Victor’s Village, until there is only one non-victor show left, and these will be reset to 10 points for the Winners’ Circle and final votes. Once you make a vote, wait at least 24 hours before making your next one.

    And, if cheating is detected(which is rare, but usually pretty obvious), the suspect “votes” will be disqualified and the totals reset to the most recent valid vote (even if the cheater(s) managed to eliminate a show.) No exceptions! Remember, this is just for fun, to show which shows are our favorites. Don’t ruin it!

    * Not the CW.
    ** Sorry, Community fans, you won’t get to vote for your show now. Same to Whiney fans and Smash fans. Chicago Fire will be included, though, since it premieres tomorrow.
    *** When each new thread is posted, at least one full page of comments should be already posted before the game is continued.

    Ready? Let’s go:

    ANIMAL PRACTICE – 25
    UP ALL NIGHT – 22 (-3)
    30 ROCK – 27 (+2)
    GUYS WITH KIDS – 25
    GRIMM – 26 (+1)
    PARKS & RECREATION – 25
    PARENTHOOD – 25
    THE NEW NORMAL – 23 (-2)
    LAW & ORDER: SVU – 25
    THE OFFICE – 24 (-1)
    GO ON – 25
    REVOLUTION – 28 (+3)

    From 30 Rock 7.01 “The Beginning of the End” –
    Kenneth: I need some advice.
    Tracy: I recommend you get it from Liz Lemon or an owl who wears glasses.

  • Bob

    Revolution should be given a test to see if it can stand on it’s own. Move it to Tuesday at 8 o’clock against NCIS and see how it does. The other thing is, PLEASE NBC SAVE GUYS WITH KIDS!!! Best show on that network since Friends.

  • a p garcia

    Revolution would have to encounter a major erosion of viewers just to make it a bubble show.

  • Other Than That Mrs. Lincoln How Was The Play?

    Yeah Bill, but people said the same thing about Terra Nova and The Event.

    Yes, the chances of renewal above 2.0 at seasons end are good unless it costs too much to make. Just because its the highest rated scripted show NBC has doesnt mean much. For a show to drop 50% from its premiere by the end of the season, that is alot. The 2.5 reference was mid season. But I would figure further declines after that. Under 2.0? Depends on cost factors to get a Season 2.

    Like odds for renewal at 1.7? Terra Nova finale did 2.1 for its finale and FOX axes it. Ok, NBC has lower standards so maybe.

    The Event finale of 1.9 is probably a closer measure as to what the chances are for Season 2 if it tracks the same from now until end of Season 1.

    Also JJ Abrahms has mysterious superpowers that keep shows on the air that would otherwise be cancelled. So who knows.

  • Other Than That Mrs. Lincoln How Was The Play?

    Moving Revolution? Moving shows usually results in a substantial drop in ratings. 10pm time slot means no FOX compettion. Tuesday at 8pm would increase competition against it. Fringe moved twice rating gapped down after each move. Not always true, but usually.

  • Erin

    @Bob

    That’s not a test. That’s an execution.

    When it comes to writing and story lines time slot matters. If you don’t believe me watch a show of any type (half hour comedy or drama)that airs at 8 pm them watch another show of the type that airs at 10 pm.

  • The End

    Personally I was under the impression lower than low/mid 2s(2.1 or lower) would mean trouble for this show.

    I don’t really care enough to write a long explaination for this reasoning but have been right about a lot of the stuff I’ve commented on here. Not saying this logic makes me in anyway correct, I just don’t see the show surviving with lower numbers than what I’ve said.

  • AppleStinx

    mayorofsmpleton wrote: “I don’t care for Revolution but can we quit acting like 15 years without power would cause everyone to have dreadful teeth?
    You realize people can have decent oral hygiene without electricity right?”

    <sarcasm>
    Yeah, surely all people will have a full set of sparkling white teeth after 15 years of no electricity. People will brush teeth with their fingers at least 3 times a day and make regular visits to dentists, now working with manual drill and pliers. It wiil be a good thing that people remember how to make sodium bicarbonate because that’s what they may be using to help clean teeth. Always carry some when going on the road to save one useless guy (the brother).
    </sarcasm>
    Don’t forget that distribution of water and drainage were also interrupted when power was lost.

  • tjw

    @Mrs. Lincoln,

    You’re making crazy comparisons, here. The Event debuted to a 3.7 and was down to a 1.7 by November Sweeps. By the end of the season its R/C Index was 0.64, which would make it the lowest show on NBC right now. And this with an NBC scripted average 50% higher than now.

    Terra Nova debuted to a 3.0 and fell into the low 2s by the end of its season, but that was on a network with much better average ratings and, it needs to be pointed out, five fewer hours of primetime programming.

    There’s no evidence that Revolution is going to pull an Event-style ratings drop. Just look at how each fared in its first month:

    Revolution – 4.1, 3.5, 3.2, 3.1
    The Event – 3.7, 2.9, 2.4, 2.0

    The Event lost 45% of its premiere audience in four weeks, Revolution has lost 25% and appears to be leveling off. Predicting Revolution to track like The Event is just insane.

    And is there any evidence that Revolution is actually an expensive show? The cast is mostly B-level talent (except for Giancarlo Esposito) and there doesn’t appear to be any real CGI of note. Hell, there was a shot last night (of the diner) that looked like it was dragged straight out of the 1980s stock footage vault. Not all science fiction is expensive.

  • Erin

    @AppleStinx
    How about they aren’t mentioning it because it’s not part of the story. If you want insane attention to detail like that read a novel, but even then the writer probably wont get into things like dental and hygiene issues for characters in the first four chapters (which is essentially where we are in Revolution) unless it was important to a character.

    Not saying they won’t ever get to it eventually, but at this point who cares.

    Oh and for the record, because I don’t have insurance I haven’t been to the dentist in about 15 years. I have two cavities, but generally my teeth don’t hurt unless there is another reason such as my chronic teeth grinding. Genetics and diet also play a part in tooth decay. Without as many sugar laden foods and drinks it’s possible for tooth issues to decrease overall even if serious issues become harder to deal with.

  • AppleStinx

    @Erin

    I’m picking on ‘Revolution’ only because it was said to employ a team of scientits as advisors. I should have known better when Chicago wasn’t carpet bombed by all the commercial planes falling from the skies the minute all power was lost.

  • Brian

    Revolution and Grimm are NBC’s top shows. Why aren’t there 5 smilies for Grimm? It’s getting the same ratings as last year and it had 5 smilies with them.

  • Saynt

    It seems that the only “TV” you people care to watch nowadays are singing and dance competitions.

    How lame.

  • Josh

    @tjw
    It would if it didn’t have the Voice to feed off on.

  • DryedMangoez

    No doubt The Voice is helping Revolution, but I think it’ll hover around 3.0
    I believe if viewers were to bail on the show, it would’ve been last week or this week. Otherwise, you’re in it for the long haul now.

    Even if the show falls to a 2.0, it’d still be hanging in there with Castle and Hawaii Five-0.

  • capslocke

    Revolution is doing great, idk what all u guys are saying.

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