NBC: 'Revolution' Ratings Keep Falling, But It's A Long Way From Danger

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

October 9th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 7, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice :cry: :cry: 0.67
Up All Night :cry: :cry: 0.68
30 Rock final season 0.70
Guys With Kids :| :| :| 0.80
Grimm (F) :) :) :) :) 0.80
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.86
Parenthood :) :) :) :) 0.86
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 0.98
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
The Office final season 1.06
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.77

-
The adults 18-49 ratings for NBC scripted rookie darling Revolution keep falling week to week [4.2, 3.4, 3.2, 3.0] which causes some of our commenters to predict its demise. However, because NBC's scripted ratings are otherwise so completely woeful (only 2 other shows broke a 2.0 rating last week, and one is in its final season), Revolution ratings can still fall a very long way before it's in danger of becoming a meal for the Cancellation Bear.

How low? If the season stopped today, NBC would certainly be renewing scripted shows averaging a 1.7 rating, and maybe a 1.6. Will Revolution ratings fall that far? Never say never.

And for commenters who'll cry foul at Revolution's "retention", don't bring that Retentionista nonsense around here.

Up All Night and Animal Practice ratings aren't falling every week, but are already so low as to make them both likely to be canceled.

Where's the bear? He's not just in the NBC post this season, he's moving around!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Ultima

    @erwan
    Hey americans, what do you think about the X factor this year ? I think it’s great, and i’m sad because it dosen’t work and would be surely canceled !

    The X Factor airs on FOX (NBC has The Voice).

    There’s zero chance of either show being canceled this season.

  • Ultima

    @elizabeth
    If Revolution survives beyond the six eps it has in the can, or at most a “back six,” I’d be very surprised, it is SOOOO bad

    Did waking up from cryostasis hurt? Clearly you come from a time before Revoltuion premiered as you seem oblivious to its massive ratings and full season pickup.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    Folks, let’s keep “The Elimination Game” out of the Renew/Cancel Index post comments this season.

    Here is a post I created for you to lead “The Elimination Game” on an ongoing basis, feel free to put one comment per week in each Renew/Cancel thread directing people to this post in which to play.

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/play-the-elimination-game/152342/

  • The End

    @massive ratings

    Matter of opinion. Good currently for the network, massive no. I can’t imagine any scenario where 3.0 18-49 8.01 million is in any way massive.

    Each to their own I suppose.

  • ILoveSitcoms

    Revolution’s ratings are excellent, no other way to state it. However I completely get the vitriol against the show. The show is juvenile and formulaic, basically junk food for the mind.

    Still, I’m glad to see NBC have a little success. The last thing I want to see is that network go under. Of course if this is what works for NBC I guess it’s just going to become a bigger budget CW.

  • ILoveSitcoms

    I wonder whether NBC are going to test flipping Guys with Kids and Animal Practice to make sure that the competition isn’t the reason for the disparity between the shows’ ratings. The Middle is a tougher sitcom to go head to head with as opposed to the DOA sitcom The Neighbors.

  • Honey Badger

    @ Anthony Yes NBC is the only network that has not seen big ratings drops this year, but they are still in the worst position in that their ratings are much lower than the other networks, and they are very dependent on The Voice and Football on NBC

    Show ratings for scripted shows,
    Look at the number 1 rated shows for each network
    ABC Modern Family 5.5
    CBS The Big Bang Theory 4.9
    NBC The VOICE NBC 4.6
    FOX X-FACTOR-WED FOX 3.5

    Look at the number 2 rated shows for each network
    ABC Grey’S ANATOMY 3.8
    CBS NCIS 3.7
    FOX Family Guy 3.4
    NBC Revolution 3.0

    Look at the number 3 rated shows for each network
    CBS Two and a Half Men 3.6
    ABC Once Upon A Time 3.4
    Simpsons FOX 3.1
    Fox NBC Go On scored a 2.2 18-49 rating, down 19% from last week’s 2.7.

    Look at the number 4 rated shows for each network
    CBS 60 Minutes 3.6
    New Girl FOX 2.8
    ABC Revenge 2.6
    NBC The Office 2.2

    Look at the number 5 rated shows for each network
    CBS 2 Broke Girls 3.5
    FOX American Dad 2.6
    ABC The Middle 2.2
    NBC Law & Order: SVU 2.1

    Look at the number 6 rated shows for each network
    CBS How I Met Your Mother 3.2
    FOX Bob’s Burgers 2.3
    ABC The Neighbors 2.0
    NBC The New Normal 1.7

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/tv-ratings-broadcast-top-25-sunday-night-football-tops-week-2-viewing-among-adults-18-49-but-ncis-wins-with-total-viewers/152130/

    In fact look at the top 25 shows, take away The Voice and Football on NBC they don’t have anything except REVOLUTION

    Primetime Broadcast Adults 18-49 Viewers for the week ending October 7, 2012:

    Rank Shows R=Repeat S=Special P=Premiere Net 18-49 rating 18-49 Viewers (000)
    1 NBC Sunday Night Football NBC 7.2 9117
    2 SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK NBC 5.4 6803
    3 Big Bang Theory, THE CBS 4.9 6189
    4 VOICE NBC 4.6 5776
    5 FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 NBC 4.2 5351
    6 Grey’S ANATOMY ABC 3.8 4837
    7 NCIS CBS 3.7 4686
    8 Two and a Half Men CBS 3.6 4515
    9 60 Minutes CBS 3.6 4507
    10 X-FACTOR-WED FOX 3.5 4480
    11 2 Broke Girls CBS 3.5 4372
    12 Family Guy FOX 3.4 4352
    13 Once Upon A Time ABC 3.4 4314
    14 How I Met Your Mother CBS 3.3 4117
    15 REVOLUTION NBC 3.2 4006
    16 X-FACTOR-THU FOX 3.2 3992
    17 Simpsons FOX 3.1 3945
    18 NCIS: LOS ANGELES CBS 3.1 3871
    19 Person Of Interest CBS 3.0 3832
    20 VOICE-TUE NBC 3.0 3771
    21 SURVIVOR: PHILIPPINES CBS 3.0 3746
    22 FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 NBC 2.9 3706
    23 MIKE & Molly CBS 2.9 3631
    24 DECISION’12 PRES ANALYS(S) S NBC 2.8 3565
    25 New Girl FOX 2.8 3501

    -

  • Jared K

    Last year, the R/C Index started over at midseason and calculated all-new scripted averages to use for prediction purposes. Will you be doing the same this year? I ask because I think that Revolution’s superior fall ratings won’t be the ultimate factor in deciding its fate. Its true test will come in the spring, when it has to move somewhere else on NBC’s schedule (the retooled Smash is currently scheduled to take its place behind the spring cycle of The Voice). NBC is clearly going to want to use it as a launching pad for one of its many new midseason replacements. Can it be a self-starter at say, Wednesdays at 8, and provide a boost to the shows airing after it? If not, it may come down to the wire.

  • Ultima

    @The End
    Matter of opinion. Good currently for the network, massive no.

    Obviously, I meant massive relative to NBC’s scripted shows (dramas, especially).

    I just didn’t want to clutter my snark with qualifiers. ;)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Last year, the R/C Index started over at midseason and calculated all-new scripted averages to use for prediction purposes. Will you be doing the same this year?”

    Yep.

    “I ask because I think that Revolution’s superior fall ratings won’t be the ultimate factor in deciding its fate.”

    I can’t disagree with that.

  • John

    The “logic” on display by the Revolution haters is hilarious (my favorite was the guy who said NBC should “test” the show by moving it to a different time slot–Why? It’s rating well right now where it is. Don’t fix things that aren’t broken). Whether or not *you* like a show or not is irrelevant. First of all, the show isn’t that bad. It’s not a great show by any stretch, but it’s watchable enough. And even if it was objectively terrible, that doesn’t matter if it rates. There are plenty of shows that I don’t like that get good ratings, as well as plenty of shows that I like that don’t. But my opinion isn’t important either. TV is a business and always has been. Critical acclaim or lack thereof can make a difference for a show on the bubble. But Revolution’s ratings are very good, and for NBC, they’re downright great. That’s not to say that they won’t fall off. Anything’s possible. But at this point, I think Gorman is right on the money that it’s in the certain to be renewed territory.

  • Honey Badger

    Looking at my last posting above, NBC Revolution is the second highest rated show on NBC at 3.0. And it has far better ratings then the third highest program on NBC – NBC Go On scored a 2.2 18-49 rating, down 19% from last week’s 2.7.
    In fact look at the top 25 shows on TV, take away The Voice and Football on NBC they don’t have anything except REVOLUTION
    NBC would be idiots for moving the show or letting the Cancellation Bear anywhere near Revolution.
    The Cancellation Bear would have to devour the whole NBC lineup for Revolution to be in danger.

    Why hasn’t the Cancellation Bear devoured Up All Night and Animal Practice on NBC and Partners on CBS yet ? What is the Cancellation Bear waiting for?

  • Trey

    4.1, 3.4, 3.2 and now a 3.0

    It had the big drop, but now it’s steadily and consistently dropping each week. The show isn’t that much better than The Event or The Cape. I just don’t understand why they launch these shows with the writing as bad as they are. It’s not like the pilot for Revolution was all that great or anything.

    They should really fire the one that’s making the decision on these shows. Give us quality, don’t give us shows like RVN and The Event. Give us shows like Heroes and Lost.

  • Dan C.

    Had enough of Revolution. It just wasn’t exciting anymore, and one of the main characters is annoying!

  • Connor

    Just to let you guys know Revolution was signed on for a second season today.

  • Dan

    I could see Go On and The New Normal being moved to Thursdays at 8 and 8:30 replacing 30 Rock and Up All Night which will likely wrap up their runs by January. That way Tuesday from 8-10 is free in January until The Voice returns.

  • luisl

    @Connor

    That’s false.

  • Carl

    @Connor,

    How about a link? Are you aren’t confusing the news that it got a full season pickup (which I think it did get the other day) with “a second season”?

  • Carl

    Wish I had an edit button! Remove “aren’t” from my first sentence and it makes more sense!

  • skinsforlife101

    Go On is the best new comedy of the season so far. NBC has finally found a winner. Also I have a feeling that Chicago Fire is going to fail miserably but only time will tell.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures