NBC: 'Revolution' Ratings Keep Falling, But It's A Long Way From Danger

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

October 9th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 7, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice :cry: :cry: 0.67
Up All Night :cry: :cry: 0.68
30 Rock final season 0.70
Guys With Kids :| :| :| 0.80
Grimm (F) :) :) :) :) 0.80
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.86
Parenthood :) :) :) :) 0.86
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 0.98
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
The Office final season 1.06
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.77

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The adults 18-49 ratings for NBC scripted rookie darling Revolution keep falling week to week [4.2, 3.4, 3.2, 3.0] which causes some of our commenters to predict its demise. However, because NBC's scripted ratings are otherwise so completely woeful (only 2 other shows broke a 2.0 rating last week, and one is in its final season), Revolution ratings can still fall a very long way before it's in danger of becoming a meal for the Cancellation Bear.

How low? If the season stopped today, NBC would certainly be renewing scripted shows averaging a 1.7 rating, and maybe a 1.6. Will Revolution ratings fall that far? Never say never.

And for commenters who'll cry foul at Revolution's "retention", don't bring that Retentionista nonsense around here.

Up All Night and Animal Practice ratings aren't falling every week, but are already so low as to make them both likely to be canceled.

Where's the bear? He's not just in the NBC post this season, he's moving around!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Richard Steven Hack

    I expect Revolution to keep falling but slowly. But I think based on the poor quality of the show that it’s likely to be one of those shows like Ringer that held ratings for a while, but eventually collapsed as the audience gave up on it ever making any sense.

    The show does have its moments and its good points – but I don’t see enough of them to make it likely it will survive for more than one season.

  • Anthony

    Yes NBC is the only network that has not seen big ratings drops this year, but they are still in the worst position in that their ratings are much lower than the other networks, and they are very dependent on The Voice and Football on NBC

    Um, if you take the two highest rated programs off any network, they would look a lot more terrible. ABC is dependent on Modern Family and Grey’s Anatomy. CBS is dependent on TBBT and NCIS. Fox is dependent on X Factor and Family Guy. But besides that, NBC is certainly in a MUCH better position than it was last year at this time, which goes to the point that they are improving while that other networks are sinking back. Rome wasn’t built in a day, you can’t expect that they can completely revamp an entire Monday through Friday lineup- 15 hours of programming(!) in one season. That certainly isn’t realistic. They have made a good start at it this season with Revolution and Go On and they still have PLENTY of other new shows to premiere which might also help their ratings.

  • Yeah

    I really hope Revolution gets a full second season.

  • Emily

    after all the olympic promotion for animal practice, I can’t imagine NBC having too much patience, probably moving it to fridays? I wish they would move guys with kids with them because its awful, and I picked it for first cancelled, but such is NBC that it may actually stick around, amazing

  • Emily

    also honestly revolution may scrape out a second season, but its looking more flash-forwardy or V than lost at this point

  • The End

    @Ultima

    Alrighty.

  • Petar Ivanov

    Revolution is best new show and best 10pm show. And yeas way better than last year Revenge wich was best 10 pm show last season. Revenge premiere with 3.3 after MF and after that in second episode was 2.8. RVN is adventure drama with a lot of action, suspense, love story, thriller, some mistery. Its not complicated as i expected. Entertaining, simple and easy to follow. Great show. Easly will win people choice award for new drama and teen choice award.

    ps JD Pardo is awesome! He is next big TV star.

  • Alexa

    I’ve been reading plenty of sources on the interwebs that Revolution was renewed for a 2nd season yesterday, but it seems more rumor than fact.
    Anyone know more about this?

  • Petar Ivanov

    @In fact look at the top 25 shows, take away The Voice and Football on NBC they don’t have anything except REVOLUTION

    Primetime Broadcast Adults 18-49 Viewers for the week ending October 7, 2012:

    Rank Shows R=Repeat S=Special P=Premiere Net 18-49 rating 18-49 Viewers (000)
    1 NBC Sunday Night Football NBC 7.2 9117
    2 SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK NBC 5.4 6803
    3 Big Bang Theory, THE CBS 4.9 6189
    4 VOICE NBC 4.6 5776
    5 FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 NBC 4.2 5351
    6 Grey’S ANATOMY ABC 3.8 4837
    7 NCIS CBS 3.7 4686
    8 Two and a Half Men CBS 3.6 4515
    9 60 Minutes CBS 3.6 4507
    10 X-FACTOR-WED FOX 3.5 4480
    11 2 Broke Girls CBS 3.5 4372
    12 Family Guy FOX 3.4 4352
    13 Once Upon A Time ABC 3.4 4314
    14 How I Met Your Mother CBS 3.3 4117
    15 REVOLUTION NBC 3.2 4006
    16 X-FACTOR-THU FOX 3.2 3992
    17 Simpsons FOX 3.1 3945
    18 NCIS: LOS ANGELES CBS 3.1 3871
    19 Person Of Interest CBS 3.0 3832
    20 VOICE-TUE NBC 3.0 3771
    21 SURVIVOR: PHILIPPINES CBS 3.0 3746
    22 FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 NBC 2.9 3706
    23 MIKE & Molly CBS 2.9 3631
    24 DECISION’12 PRES ANALYS(S) S NBC 2.8 3565
    25 New Girl FOX 2.8 3501

    WHat is your point….i mean last year NBC was even without that. THEY ARE IMPROVING! Yes slowly but NBC is better this season than last season. ANd they still kave a lot good shows to premiere. Chicago fire looks good. Hannibal is promising.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @Alexa, those reports are nonsense. Revolution was given a full season order for the current season. Nothing more.

  • Petar Ivanov

    mayorofsmpleton wrote: “I don’t care for Revolution but can we quit acting like 15 years without power would cause everyone to have dreadful teeth?

    You realize people can have decent oral hygiene without electricity right?”

    Me: You both make me laughing. That was most funny thing i read today. I mean is shocking how people convened with modern world and forget their past. Humans live centuries without power. I wrote it before months and will post it here:

    Revolution is a genius with this that people lived longer without power, planes, cars, internet and any other technologies for centuries. Than came this technological boom. But once invented is now very difficult to imagine the lives of people before us. Imagine your life without the most important toys now. Much easier it was in the centuries that was not even possible to imagine what is a car, airplane, internet and so on. I will kill myself if stay more then 24 hours without internet. The idea is phenomenal and original. Humans are so capable of great things, but we restrict ourselves all the time. So people don’t be narrow-minded. Imagine if people before us was thinking that flying in the plane is imposible or to connect all over the world via interned for second is not possible.

  • sam_genova@hotmail.com

    NBC is such a mess, The Event got a full season.
    The Voice helps very little, remember SMASH last year.

  • scifi

    NBC also has Dracula (10 episodes) to premiere next year.

  • Geordiegirl1967

    I hope Revolution gets renewed because – to my surprise (my expectations weren’t high) I really like it. And it is growing on me rather than what often happens which is that a show starts with a great opening premis, then you come to realise that it can’t deliver.

    It seems to me that Revolution – like Supernatural, Eric Kripkes previous show – is going to rely on great, well-written, believable characters and relationships to drive the drama rather than elaborate plot devices / concepts. THAT is what gives a show longevity, not a great concept that gets ever more complex and hard to deliver on. Lost suffered from the latter to a huge extent, but also had the former – the great characters and relationships. It was that, not the mystery about the island, that kept it on our screens for so long.

    I cried at the end of the last ep. So in just 4 eps I’d got invested enough to really care what happened to one of the main characters. I watched the whole season of Terra Nova and never got that invested. To me that is the sign that it is doing something right.

  • Blake

    @X: why are you shocked that it got renewed? They are making money from advertisers, as if they care how good the acting is…

  • Other Than That Mrs. Lincoln How Was The Play?

    As of right now, Revolution is a lock for a season 2 at 3.0. The operative words being RIGHT NOW. Then again so was NBCs the event in the same time slot same this year.

    Because there is so few scripted drmas on network TV these days, I hope it gets a season 2. But after repeatedly seeing the same patterns over the last few years for shows like Revolution, I will be suprised if it beats the odds. For ever .1 tick down uinder 2.5 I reduce its season 2 odds by 10%. So at 1.5 or lower it certainly will be cancelled. At 2.0 its 50-50 though at 2.0 I say it would at least get 9 episodes for season 2 at that level – if ratings kept falling for those 9 then it would get axed next fall. Of course the Live+ ratings are a factor as well – if it sustains 50% gains the odds rise for at least 2 seasons. They could also start killing off really annoying characters (unfortunately that is more than half of them – Google Guy is the worst!) to reduce costs and populate it with mostly extras. Alot depends on how dedicated NBC really is to it.

  • nikki

    im happy to see smileys next to parenthood.. not happy its gone for 2 weeks. they really need to stop the breaks. maybe have one in november for thabksgiving and christmas in december but but run the show the rest of the time. these breaks will kill it.

  • Aeiouy

    There has been only one break out hit from the fall network tv season and it is the show with the most complaints.

  • BD

    didn’t the DVR Ratings make Revolution’s ratings alot better last week? I would assume the same would happen this week..especially going up against the heart of MNF in a close game. You can always watch Revolution On Demand but if you get the score of the football game tomorrow it isn’t worth watching again.

  • Leoben Conoy

    Revolution = garbage

    that is all.

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