Bubble Watch: I'm Still Not Sure About "Revolution's" Prospects But I Didn't Run Over Your Dog!

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

October 14th, 2012

I'm still not sure how I'll handle "Bubble Watch" this season. Options range from a list similar to last week (which was for the most part "fill in the status") to something more akin to how Bubble Watch has been handled in the past (I'm trying that this week) to simply doing a weekly recap of all the separate Renew/Cancel posts in one place.

The comments and feedback last week were helpful, but I'm still undecided. The comments this week might sway me in one direction versus the others.

A couple of things to remember:

The Renew/Cancel Index predicts what will happen based on known information if the season ended today.

Bubble Watch doesn't operate like that -- it tries to guess what will happen by the May upfront meetings where the schedules for the following season are announced, but only for shows which have aired so far. I won't guess based on *no* ratings data (though I did add Next Caller to the list with canceled status because I don't have to guess at its status!).

How these differences play out:

As a result of the difference approach, there are some differences in the designations. These difference mostly evaporate by February. If you ask Bill what Revolutions' prospects are he will say "If the season ended today, it's a lock for renewal!" I agree with that. If you ask Bill "but what do you think will happen by May?" he will prudently respond something along the lines of "I don't make guesses like that."

I am much more willing to make guesses like that, but also traditionally have started "Bubble Watch" a bit later in the year than the Renew/Cancel Index. Why? Because guessing what would happen if the season ended *today* is something you can do immediately. Guessing about May in September and October, when May is still very far away, is, in many cases, quite nonsensical!

You Say You Want a "Revolution" Renewal Status?

Well, you know... To compensate for the aforementioned nonsense I utilize the right to say "I'm not sure" when I don't know and I'm not sure.  Is Revolution a lock to be renewed if the season ended today? Absolutely! Is the season ending today? No.

Would Revolution's ratings have to fall dramatically to be in any danger: yep, yep they would!

Are such dramatic falls possible? Yes, yes they are. OK, but are such drops likely? Let's put it this way: given fairly recent history with genre shows like Flash Forward, The Event (and to some degree V), I definitely want to see more data. Am I as certain as the Renew/Cancel Index that if the season ended today that Revolution is a lock? You bet I am. But with the season ending in May rather than today, I'm just not sure about Revolution yet.

I'm not singling out Revolution. As you'll see with it being October and May still being far away, there's plenty I'm not sure about.

One labeling change: in a few cases I've added the qualifier "based on ratings." While that's normally assumed for everything, I'm calling it out separately for older shows who are getting up there in age that still have "the ratings" but are more likely to be impacted by other factors (costs, people working on the show's desire to continue, etc) due to age. So where it says ""How I Met Your Mother" is certain to be renewed based on ratings" it just means I'm certain that if ratings are the only factor, it will be renewed, but that I think there is much more "external to ratings" risk relative to say, "2 Broke Girls" and "Mike & Molly."

 

Show Network Renewal Status
666 Park Avenue ABC very likely cancellation
Last Resort ABC likely cancellation
Private Practice ABC likely cancellation
Scandal ABC not sure
Neighbors, The ABC not sure
Castle ABC not sure
Nashville ABC not sure
Middle, The ABC likely renewal
Revenge ABC likely renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC certain renewal based on ratings
Once Upon A Time ABC certain renewal
Modern Family ABC certain renewal
Made In Jersey CBS Cancelled
Partners CBS certain cancellation
CSI: NY CBS not sure
Good Wife, The CBS not sure
Mentalist, The CBS not sure
Vegas CBS not sure
Elementary CBS not sure
CSI CBS likely renewal based on ratings
Criminal Minds CBS certain renewal based on ratings
How I Met Your Mother CBS certain renewal based on ratings
Two and a Half Men CBS certain renewal based on ratings
NCIS CBS certain renewal based on ratings
Hawaii Five-0 CBS certain renewal
Blue Bloods CBS certain renewal
Person Of Interest CBS certain renewal
Mike & Molly CBS certain renewal
NCIS: LA CBS certain renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS certain renewal
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Hart Of Dixie CW not sure
90210 CW not sure
Beauty And The Beast CW not sure
Arrow CW not sure
Supernatural CW likely renewal based on ratings
The Vampire Diaries CW certain renewal
Fringe FOX Final Season
Mob Doctor, The FOX certain cancellation
Ben & Kate FOX not sure
Mindy Project, The FOX not sure
Bob's Burgers FOX not sure
Bones FOX likely renewal based on ratings
Raising Hope FOX likely renewal
Cleveland Show, The FOX likely renewal
Glee FOX certain renewal
New Girl FOX certain renewal
American Dad FOX Renewed
Family Guy FOX Renewed
Simpsons, The FOX Renewed
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
Next Caller NBC Cancelled
Animal Practice NBC likely cancellation
Up All Night NBC likely cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC likely cancellation
New Normal, The NBC not sure
Chicago Fire NBC not sure
Revolution NBC not sure
Go On NBC likely renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC certain renewal based on ratings
Parks & Recreation NBC certain renewal
Parenthood NBC certain renewal
Grimm NBC certain renewal

 

 

 
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  • Martine

    Thank you for Grimm and Person of Interest good news. i love 666 Park Ave but I knew it was doomed without even checking the ratings. Its the sort of thing I love, but isn’t popular enough for a non cable show. I really enjoy this place. I even enjoy reading all the flaming wars here.

  • Martine

    I would like to know one thing; I am not trying to create conflict at all. But what is the CW doing, exactly? What is their strategy? They have such low rated shows, but with very small group of very ardent fans. I don’t get it.

  • Smoke That Sherm-Palladino

    Surprised that Raising Hope and Parks & Recreation are listed as “likely renewals.” I guess Raising Hope would hit 88 episodes (syndication) next year, so that makes a little sense. But by the end of this season, Parks & Rec will already have 90 eps under its belt, and NBC could be tempted to just clean house and ditch all the Thursday comedies (Parks, Community, Up All Night) after The Office and 30 Rock end.

  • Atlanta

    I recall Kevin Reilly saying at Upfronts, I believe, that ther Bones’ licensing agreement has been approved/agreed upon for season 8 & 9, so the big question is ratings and whether the lead actors wish to continue?

  • DW

    the cw is aimed at 18-34 year olds and the cw has said many times that their viewers watch online which doesn’t bode well for a network that makes money on advertising.

  • steveb

    Seems reasonable with a couple exceptions…..If a falling rating going below CW isnt certain cancelation whqt would be? (AP) and NBC do alot for Revolution….I think renewal based on ratings is more realistic..

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Smoke: well I’ve been proved wrong at least once this season already then. I went into this post thinking “Parks & Recreation” was the biggest guess I was making in this post but that nobody would pay attention to that.

  • aleksander eide

    @robert seidman
    do you think 666 park ave will atleast air 13 episodes before getting cancelled

  • omabin

    In general, I agree with everything. I think you have used the “based on the ratings” a bit too often as I don’t think shows like CSI for instance are in that kind of danger, since most of the cast has been replaced anyway. My disagreements;
    -on the CW, I think 90210 should be likely to be canceled
    - Animal Practice & Up All Night should be certain to be canceled
    - SVU should on the bubble accounting for the relative ratings and for the costs. As you have this new thing for factors external to ratings, it should be at the most likely renewed based on ratings, not certain. Parenthood is doing better than it is and remains to be seen what Chciago Fire will do. If it beats it systematically, even marginally, NBC would be wise to go with the newest, cheapest one. Also, tjhere are a huge number of NBC dramas premiering midseason.
    - Parks as a certain renewal is a huge stretch to me. I would make it likely at the most, it’s a bubble show for me.

  • Nikki

    Very happy to see Parenthood at certain renewal.. but i have a question and i asked on Spoilertv also how come no one keeps track of the ABCFamily shows. Only when stuff is annouced do we know whats going on. Just a question, if anyones got an answer thanks.

  • elie_r

    Since you’re taking comments, I suggest not separating shows by network on the bubble watch. The index is already like that. I liked it last year when you put all the shows in order, starting from Final Season to Renewed. That way you can see what show is is which status right away and not have to “start over” for every network.

  • Dan S

    How come Revolution is not sure ? The ratings have been consistently good & I’m quite certain it’ll see a 2nd season even if the ratings fall further. I think they’re near the bottom & shouldn’t go down much further. I think it’ll be on a par with OUAT which is usually in the low 3′s. Also even though Arrow has had only 1 airing I’d put it down for a likely renewal.

  • Joseph

    I thought of a great idea that could both give TV By The Numbers.com some publicity and help good causes.

    Take the Cancellation Bear on tour, charge people admission to see him, and turn over all the proceeds to charity.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    How come Revolution is not sure ?

    see, *that* is what I thought would be the first comment! Having explained my reasons in the post. I’m not sure because unlike you, I am not sure! To say it another way, it’s because I discount your (and anyone else’s) certainty (with some good cause) based on only four episodes.

  • Percysowner

    The only tiny quibble I would have is the Supernatural based on ratings qualification. Both Jared Padalecki and Jensen Ackles have announced that they have signed on for seasons 9 and 10. Plus they hired a new show runner this year and I would expect he would have been signed for more than a one season contract. I don’t know what other outside factors could be in play but I think most of the based on ratings qualification have already been taken care of.

  • Mike

    Why is NCIS a certain renewal based on ratings? It beats most shows in the demo, in addition to beating every show in ratings.

  • Hugo Manso

    @Mike

    Read what he wrote before the list…

  • DCC

    @Robert Seidman

    What about Nikita? I know it hasn’t premiered yet, but after it does, is it more likely to be considered as a “likely renewal” based on syndication issues or a “not sure”/”likely cancellation” depending on how it actually performs?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    Wait a second, *if* I had a dog, and *if* someone had run over him, how would I *know* it wasn’t you?

  • Oliver

    I’m surprised you’re hedging your bets with Animal Practice. I think it’s weeks away from being pulled from the schedule.

    It’s a minor leap with P&R, but I agree. I suspect it will end the season as NBC’s highest-rated renewable comedy and, in that situation, it’s hard to imagine NBC cancelling it.

    Little bit surprised you’re so confident about The Cleveland Show.

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