I'm still not sure how I'll handle "Bubble Watch" this season. Options range from a list similar to last week (which was for the most part "fill in the status") to something more akin to how Bubble Watch has been handled in the past (I'm trying that this week) to simply doing a weekly recap of all the separate Renew/Cancel posts in one place.
The comments and feedback last week were helpful, but I'm still undecided. The comments this week might sway me in one direction versus the others.
A couple of things to remember:
The Renew/Cancel Index predicts what will happen based on known information if the season ended today.
Bubble Watch doesn't operate like that -- it tries to guess what will happen by the May upfront meetings where the schedules for the following season are announced, but only for shows which have aired so far. I won't guess based on *no* ratings data (though I did add Next Caller to the list with canceled status because I don't have to guess at its status!).
How these differences play out:
As a result of the difference approach, there are some differences in the designations. These difference mostly evaporate by February. If you ask Bill what Revolutions' prospects are he will say "If the season ended today, it's a lock for renewal!" I agree with that. If you ask Bill "but what do you think will happen by May?" he will prudently respond something along the lines of "I don't make guesses like that."
I am much more willing to make guesses like that, but also traditionally have started "Bubble Watch" a bit later in the year than the Renew/Cancel Index. Why? Because guessing what would happen if the season ended *today* is something you can do immediately. Guessing about May in September and October, when May is still very far away, is, in many cases, quite nonsensical!
You Say You Want a "Revolution" Renewal Status?
Well, you know... To compensate for the aforementioned nonsense I utilize the right to say "I'm not sure" when I don't know and I'm not sure. Is Revolution a lock to be renewed if the season ended today? Absolutely! Is the season ending today? No.
Would Revolution's ratings have to fall dramatically to be in any danger: yep, yep they would!
Are such dramatic falls possible? Yes, yes they are. OK, but are such drops likely? Let's put it this way: given fairly recent history with genre shows like Flash Forward, The Event (and to some degree V), I definitely want to see more data. Am I as certain as the Renew/Cancel Index that if the season ended today that Revolution is a lock? You bet I am. But with the season ending in May rather than today, I'm just not sure about Revolution yet.
I'm not singling out Revolution. As you'll see with it being October and May still being far away, there's plenty I'm not sure about.
One labeling change: in a few cases I've added the qualifier "based on ratings." While that's normally assumed for everything, I'm calling it out separately for older shows who are getting up there in age that still have "the ratings" but are more likely to be impacted by other factors (costs, people working on the show's desire to continue, etc) due to age. So where it says ""How I Met Your Mother" is certain to be renewed based on ratings" it just means I'm certain that if ratings are the only factor, it will be renewed, but that I think there is much more "external to ratings" risk relative to say, "2 Broke Girls" and "Mike & Molly."
|666 Park Avenue||ABC||very likely cancellation|
|Last Resort||ABC||likely cancellation|
|Private Practice||ABC||likely cancellation|
|Neighbors, The||ABC||not sure|
|Middle, The||ABC||likely renewal|
|Grey's Anatomy||ABC||certain renewal based on ratings|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||certain renewal|
|Modern Family||ABC||certain renewal|
|Made in Jersey||CBS||Cancelled|
|CSI: NY||CBS||not sure|
|Good Wife, The||CBS||not sure|
|Mentalist, The||CBS||not sure|
|CSI||CBS||likely renewal based on ratings|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||certain renewal based on ratings|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||certain renewal based on ratings|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||certain renewal based on ratings|
|NCIS||CBS||certain renewal based on ratings|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||certain renewal|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||certain renewal|
|Person of Interest||CBS||certain renewal|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||certain renewal|
|NCIS: LA||CBS||certain renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||certain renewal|
|Big Bang Theory, The||CBS||Renewed|
|Gossip Girl||CW||Final Season|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||not sure|
|Beauty and the Beast||CW||not sure|
|Supernatural||CW||likely renewal based on ratings|
|The Vampire Diaries||CW||certain renewal|
|Mob Doctor, The||FOX||certain cancellation|
|Ben & Kate||FOX||not sure|
|Mindy Project, The||FOX||not sure|
|Bob's Burgers||FOX||not sure|
|Bones||FOX||likely renewal based on ratings|
|Raising Hope||FOX||likely renewal|
|Cleveland Show, The||FOX||likely renewal|
|New Girl||FOX||certain renewal|
|30 Rock||NBC||Final Season|
|The Office||NBC||Final Season|
|Animal Practice||NBC||likely cancellation|
|Up All Night||NBC||likely cancellation|
|Guys with Kids||NBC||likely cancellation|
|New Normal, The||NBC||not sure|
|Chicago Fire||NBC||not sure|
|Go On||NBC||likely renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||certain renewal based on ratings|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||certain renewal|