Bubble Watch: I'm Still Not Sure About "Revolution's" Prospects But I Didn't Run Over Your Dog!

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

October 14th, 2012

I'm still not sure how I'll handle "Bubble Watch" this season. Options range from a list similar to last week (which was for the most part "fill in the status") to something more akin to how Bubble Watch has been handled in the past (I'm trying that this week) to simply doing a weekly recap of all the separate Renew/Cancel posts in one place.

The comments and feedback last week were helpful, but I'm still undecided. The comments this week might sway me in one direction versus the others.

A couple of things to remember:

The Renew/Cancel Index predicts what will happen based on known information if the season ended today.

Bubble Watch doesn't operate like that -- it tries to guess what will happen by the May upfront meetings where the schedules for the following season are announced, but only for shows which have aired so far. I won't guess based on *no* ratings data (though I did add Next Caller to the list with canceled status because I don't have to guess at its status!).

How these differences play out:

As a result of the difference approach, there are some differences in the designations. These difference mostly evaporate by February. If you ask Bill what Revolutions' prospects are he will say "If the season ended today, it's a lock for renewal!" I agree with that. If you ask Bill "but what do you think will happen by May?" he will prudently respond something along the lines of "I don't make guesses like that."

I am much more willing to make guesses like that, but also traditionally have started "Bubble Watch" a bit later in the year than the Renew/Cancel Index. Why? Because guessing what would happen if the season ended *today* is something you can do immediately. Guessing about May in September and October, when May is still very far away, is, in many cases, quite nonsensical!

You Say You Want a "Revolution" Renewal Status?

Well, you know... To compensate for the aforementioned nonsense I utilize the right to say "I'm not sure" when I don't know and I'm not sure.  Is Revolution a lock to be renewed if the season ended today? Absolutely! Is the season ending today? No.

Would Revolution's ratings have to fall dramatically to be in any danger: yep, yep they would!

Are such dramatic falls possible? Yes, yes they are. OK, but are such drops likely? Let's put it this way: given fairly recent history with genre shows like Flash Forward, The Event (and to some degree V), I definitely want to see more data. Am I as certain as the Renew/Cancel Index that if the season ended today that Revolution is a lock? You bet I am. But with the season ending in May rather than today, I'm just not sure about Revolution yet.

I'm not singling out Revolution. As you'll see with it being October and May still being far away, there's plenty I'm not sure about.

One labeling change: in a few cases I've added the qualifier "based on ratings." While that's normally assumed for everything, I'm calling it out separately for older shows who are getting up there in age that still have "the ratings" but are more likely to be impacted by other factors (costs, people working on the show's desire to continue, etc) due to age. So where it says ""How I Met Your Mother" is certain to be renewed based on ratings" it just means I'm certain that if ratings are the only factor, it will be renewed, but that I think there is much more "external to ratings" risk relative to say, "2 Broke Girls" and "Mike & Molly."

 

Show Network Renewal Status
666 Park Avenue ABC very likely cancellation
Last Resort ABC likely cancellation
Private Practice ABC likely cancellation
Scandal ABC not sure
Neighbors, The ABC not sure
Castle ABC not sure
Nashville ABC not sure
Middle, The ABC likely renewal
Revenge ABC likely renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC certain renewal based on ratings
Once Upon A Time ABC certain renewal
Modern Family ABC certain renewal
Made In Jersey CBS Cancelled
Partners CBS certain cancellation
CSI: NY CBS not sure
Good Wife, The CBS not sure
Mentalist, The CBS not sure
Vegas CBS not sure
Elementary CBS not sure
CSI CBS likely renewal based on ratings
Criminal Minds CBS certain renewal based on ratings
How I Met Your Mother CBS certain renewal based on ratings
Two and a Half Men CBS certain renewal based on ratings
NCIS CBS certain renewal based on ratings
Hawaii Five-0 CBS certain renewal
Blue Bloods CBS certain renewal
Person Of Interest CBS certain renewal
Mike & Molly CBS certain renewal
NCIS: LA CBS certain renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS certain renewal
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Hart Of Dixie CW not sure
90210 CW not sure
Beauty And The Beast CW not sure
Arrow CW not sure
Supernatural CW likely renewal based on ratings
The Vampire Diaries CW certain renewal
Fringe FOX Final Season
Mob Doctor, The FOX certain cancellation
Ben & Kate FOX not sure
Mindy Project, The FOX not sure
Bob's Burgers FOX not sure
Bones FOX likely renewal based on ratings
Raising Hope FOX likely renewal
Cleveland Show, The FOX likely renewal
Glee FOX certain renewal
New Girl FOX certain renewal
American Dad FOX Renewed
Family Guy FOX Renewed
Simpsons, The FOX Renewed
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
Next Caller NBC Cancelled
Animal Practice NBC likely cancellation
Up All Night NBC likely cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC likely cancellation
New Normal, The NBC not sure
Chicago Fire NBC not sure
Revolution NBC not sure
Go On NBC likely renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC certain renewal based on ratings
Parks & Recreation NBC certain renewal
Parenthood NBC certain renewal
Grimm NBC certain renewal

 

 

 
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  • Mickey

    @Percysowner

    Good to know Jensen and Jared have signed on for seasons 9-10. I knew they were both talking about hoping it would go 10 seasons, but I’ve been out of the loop all summer so hadn’t heard they had officially signed on.

    I agree with others who have said it is unnecessary to add “based on ratings” if the lead actors have signed on for more seasons, and the new showrunner has said his story is designed to run for 10 seasons.

    Glad to see all the new shows I’m watching have a fair shot at renewal. I avoided the ones that smelled of early cancellation.

    I know Bubble Watch and the C/R Index work differently, and I read the explanation with the above chart, but it’s still weird to see Grimm at the top of the NBC list when on the Cancel/Renew Index it is 8th out of 12, and Revolution down in the uncertain middle when it is 1st out of 12.

    I thought I had read David Boreanaz say this was Bones’ last season?

  • vikrammangat@yahoo.com

    Castle is ABC’s version of Bones.
    Its ABC produced and already syndicated.
    Not sure is a little low isn’t it?

  • mort

    why did they move mentalist to sunday. so you think they will move it again. i think Sundays hurts them.

  • Melanie

    Robert — I think we need some ‘bubble’ in this ‘Bubble Watch’ — I hate this ‘not sure’ designation — can’t you call it ‘On the Bubble’? You’re not sure which way it will go, right? Isn’t that what being on the bubble means — could go either way?

    NCIS — based on ratings only? Most of the cast just renewed their contracts – but, you’re probably right – if Mark Harmon decides to go, it will probably end.

  • s0303

    as bad as revolution is (and it is bad) the ratings are holding up better than i thought…looks like it will be renewed :(

  • Petar Ivanov

    When we will see poll for CBS post super bowl slot? Come on its october already.

  • Petar Ivanov

    @ NCIS — based on ratings only? Most of the cast just renewed their contracts – but, you’re probably right – if Mark Harmon decides to go, it will probably end.

    If NCIS ended NCIS LA will ended too. Will colapse without mother ship.

  • Mike

    Last Resort is easlily the best new show of the year. I hope it’s ratings pick up at some point, but its doubtful. I’m glad to see my two favorite shows (NCIS, Person of Interest) are certain renewals!

  • madbengalsfan85

    @Mickey…David is also a troll (just follow his twitter and you’ll see what I mean. Both David and Emily are on the record as saying they wanted to do at least another season, if not two. And if I recall, both are renegotiating their contracts with FOX.

    @vikrammangat@yahoo.com…not at all, as you said, Castle has already achieved syndication which is usually a major milestone. It’ll hit its 100th episode this season I believe. The only thing ABC has to focus on now with the show is ratings since its other milestones have been hit. Depending on what ABC expects out of the show, it may end this season, it may live on for years to come. So by that logic, “Not sure” fits

  • Tessa

    I’m with Percysowner re Supernatural. If it is external elements that might work against it no one should worry. Both leads are signed for 2 more seasons. The new show runner has explicitly talked about a 3 year plan, and as far as costs go it’s not that much more expensive than Nitita which managed to survive with near bottom ratings. Plus Mark Pedowitz has mentioned on more than one occasion that he’s a fan and is willing to continue the show for as long as the cast wants. Add to that the steady ratings and the match up with Arrow and the show is a lock for renewal.

  • Rooks

    @vikrammangat

    The fact that it’s already syndicated means there’s no reason to keep it around if the ratings drop. As far as it being ABC owned or their version of Bones or whatever, none of that is relevant. If those ratings don’t swing up, this will be the show’s last season.

  • Honey Badger

    All behold my prognosticative abilities
    Revolution ratings will keep dropping to a 1.7 but it will stay on NBC. At the end of the year NBC will still have the lowest overall show ratings behind CBS, ABC, Fox and will be barely ahead of CW. Without The Voice and Football, NBC would have nothing. Many of their shows are getting beat by CW shows ouch.
    Nashville on ABC will keep dropping and be cancelled.
    The Mentalist on CBS canceled
    Two and a Half Men on CBS ratings will keep dropping, and they will be cancelled because they are too expensive.
    Ben & Kate on Fox canceled
    Bob’s Burgers on Fox canceled
    The rest of the “Bubble Watch”not sure and below will all be canceled except: Vegas and Elementary on CBS, Castle on ABC, Arrow and Beauty And The Beast on CW, Chicago Fire on NBC

    After Hart Of Dixie goes from the CW to CBS, I will become known as one of the greatest Prognosticators since Nostradamus. And it is not easy to be this good AND look this pretty.

    From Hart Of Dixie on CW – the best show on television George: All it proves is that I’m motivated to have this race end as quickly as possible.
    “Maybe 99 of 100 people will disappoint you. But I don’t know, I think you find the magic of the world in the margin of error.” Lavon Hayes, from the TV series Hart of Dixie

  • Jordan

    I hope that the following shows r renewed…

    ~NCIS:LA
    ~CSI:
    ~CSI:NY
    ~Hawaii Five-0
    ~Revolution

    (basically those r the shows that I watch…lol)

  • GreenGreenGreenRed

    I really like the “based on ratings” addition, especially shows like SVU, which, like other Law & Orders, could easily be canceled despite the ratings. I also like the addition of “very likely cancellation.” And another thing, Grimm’s position makes me extremely happy!

  • Honey Badger

    “A life without regret isn’t worth living.”

    Lavon Hayes

    #Hart of Dixie

  • gustavo

    How can be Next Caller cancelled if the show didn’t even made the Premiere?.

  • Ultima

    @Honey Badger
    At the end of the year NBC will still have the lowest overall show ratings behind CBS, ABC, Fox and will be barely ahead of CW

    Your efforts to trash NBC are undermined whenever you post garbage like this.

  • Grimman

    The Cleveland Show is t’rrble like t’rry. Watches the first two seasons.. Bobs Burgers is twice the show. I hope Jon Benjamin has some Seth McFarlane like pull at Fox if that is the difference between the likely renewal and not sure.

    Oh and HURRAY FOR GRIMM!

    Revolution is silly, but fun. I will keep watching. I love Weeds so I gave Animal Practice a go… it isn’t very good. Stopped watching after this weeks show.

  • Teresa

    I miss House!

    Seriously, any hope of doing something similar for Cable and such Shows?

  • Hugh

    I wouldn’t say Next Caller is cancelled, as it was never on TV. I’d call it “Not selected to air”. :)

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