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Live+7 DVR Ratings: 'Revolution' Leads Adults 18-49 Ratings and Viewership Gains; 'Grimm' Leads Percentage Gains in Premiere Week (Week 1)

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October 14th, 2012

 

 

Our source for Live+7 DVR ratings includes only original, regular programs, excluding both repeats (which are unlikely to be heavily DVR viewed) and "specials".

During the official season premiere week of September 24-30, Revolution topped the rankings for the week's DVR viewing adults 18-49 ratings added between the Live+Same Day period (as reported in all our other ratings posts) and the Live + 7 Day measurement periods with a gain of 2.3 adults 18-49 ratings points. People looking at the chart might think "hey, but Modern Family saw a 2.3 increase too! But that's a bit of rounding-to-a-tenth magic on the Live+7 and Live+SD ratings and then subtracting the rounded numbers (which is what the Nielsen report we saw did). But based on the unrounded Live+7 and Live+SD adults 18-49 ratings,  Revolution saw absolute gain of 2.282 18-49 ratings points vs. 2.2192 for Modern Family.

Grimm topped the % adults 18-49 ratings increase from DVR viewing, adding 81% to its Live+Same Day adults 18-49 ratings.

Update: Revolution led the absolute average viewership gained from DVR viewing adding  4.865 million viewers via DVR between the Live+Same Day and Live + 7 day measurement periods.
Largest 18-49 Ratings Increase From DVR Viewing for Broadcast TV Shows:

Rank Shows Net 18-49 L+SD (rating) 18-49 L+7 (Rating) Post Airdate Increase (Absolute) Post Airdate Increase (%)
1 REVOLUTION NBC 3.4 5.7 2.3 68%
2 Modern Family ABC 5.5 7.8 2.3 42%
3 Big Bang Theory, THE CBS 5.0 6.9 1.9 38%
4 GREY'S ANATOMY ABC 4.4 5.9 1.5 34%
5 New Girl FOX 2.8 4.3 1.5 54%
6 Glee FOX 2.4 3.9 1.5 63%
7 New Girl SP-9/25 8P FOX 2.8 4.2 1.4 50%
8 Once Upon A Time ABC 3.9 5.3 1.4 36%
9 Elementary CBS 3.1 4.5 1.4 45%
10 Criminal Minds CBS 3.1 4.4 1.3 42%
11 Grimm NBC 1.6 2.9 1.3 81%
12 NCIS CBS 4.1 5.3 1.2 29%
13 Private Practice ABC 1.9 3.1 1.2 63%
14 Person Of Interest CBS 2.9 4.1 1.2 41%
15 Family Guy FOX 3.3 4.4 1.1 33%
16 How I Met Your Mother CBS 3.6 4.7 1.1 31%
17 OFFICE NBC 2.1 3.2 1.1 52%
18 666 PARK AVE ABC 2.1 3.2 1.1 52%
19 Hawaii Five-0 CBS 1.8 2.9 1.1 61%
20 2 Broke Girls CBS 3.7 4.8 1.1 30%
21 REVENGE ABC 3.2 4.3 1.1 34%
22 VOICE NBC 4.4 5.4 1.0 23%
23 Two and a Half Men CBS 3.5 4.5 1.0 29%
24 BONES FOX 2.3 3.3 1.0 43%
25 Last Resort ABC 2.2 3.2 1.0 45%

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The 18-49 Demo Increase From DVR Viewing ranks which of the top broadcast shows [by Live+7 adults 18-49 ratings] had the largest absolute adults 18-49 ratings increase in viewing by DVR in their adults 18-49 Live+7 audience numbers from viewers watching shows after the airdate on their digital video recorders (DVRs).

Largest 18-49 Demo Percentage Increase From DVR Viewing for Broadcast TV Shows:

Rank Shows Net 18-49 L+SD (Rating) 18-49 L+7 (Rating) Post Airdate Increase (Absolute) Post Airdate Increase (%)
1 Grimm NBC 1.6 2.9 1.3 81%
2 REVOLUTION NBC 3.4 5.7 2.3 68%
3 Fringe FOX 1.1 1.8 0.7 64%
4 Private Practice ABC 1.9 3.1 1.2 63%
5 Glee FOX 2.4 3.9 1.5 63%
6 Hawaii Five-0 CBS 1.8 2.9 1.1 61%
7 New Girl FOX 2.8 4.3 1.5 54%
8 OFFICE NBC 2.1 3.2 1.1 52%
9 666 PARK AVE ABC 2.1 3.2 1.1 52%
10 New Girl SP-9/25 8P FOX 2.8 4.2 1.4 50%
11 Up All Night NBC 1.4 2.1 0.7 50%
12 NEW NORMAL NBC 2.0 3.0 1.0 50%
13 PARENTHOOD NBC 1.8 2.7 0.9 50%
14 LA COMPLEX CW 0.2 0.3 0.1 50%
15 Mentalist, THE CBS 2.1 3.1 1.0 48%
16 PARKS AND RECREATION NBC 1.7 2.5 0.8 47%
17 REVENGE SP-9/26 ABC 1.5 2.2 0.7 47%
18 CSI: NY CBS 1.3 1.9 0.6 46%
19 Last Resort ABC 2.2 3.2 1.0 45%
20 Elementary CBS 3.1 4.5 1.4 45%
21 BONES FOX 2.3 3.3 1.0 43%
22 Castle ABC 2.1 3.0 0.9 43%
23 SCANDAL ABC 2.1 3.0 0.9 43%
24 Criminal Minds CBS 3.1 4.4 1.3 42%
25 Modern Family ABC 5.5 7.8 2.3 42%

The 18-49 Demo % Increase From DVR Viewing ranks which of the top broadcast shows [by Live+7 18-49 ratings] had the largest percentage adults 18-49 ratings increase in viewing by DVR in their adults 18-49 Live+7 audience numbers from viewers watching shows after the airdate on their digital video recorders (DVRs).

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Largest Average Viewership Increase From DVR Viewing for Broadcast TV Shows:

Shows Net Total Viewers L+SD (Rating) Total Viewers L+7 (Rating) Post Airdate Increase (Absolute) Post Airdate Increase (%)
REVOLUTION NBC 9213 14078 4865 52.8%
Modern Family ABC 14437 18849 4412 30.6%
Big Bang Theory, THE CBS 15661 19577 3916 25.0%
Elementary CBS 13409 17302 3893 29.0%
NCIS CBS 20482 24135 3653 17.8%
Person Of Interest CBS 14276 17836 3560 24.9%
Castle ABC 10473 13836 3363 32.1%
Hawaii Five-0 CBS 8059 11382 3323 41.2%
VEGAS CBS 14847 18149 3302 22.2%
GREY'S ANATOMY ABC 11729 15007 3278 27.9%
Mentalist, THE CBS 11052 14328 3276 29.6%
Criminal Minds CBS 11732 14893 3161 26.9%
Glee FOX 5790 8909 3119 53.9%
Once Upon A Time ABC 11357 14463 3106 27.3%
Grimm NBC 5318 8240 2922 54.9%
Blue Bloods CBS 11222 14014 2792 24.9%
REVENGE ABC 9745 12530 2785 28.6%
CSI CBS 10758 13469 2711 25.2%
Last Resort ABC 9311 11970 2659 28.6%
666 PARK AVE ABC 6900 9541 2641 38.3%
NCIS: LOS ANGELES CBS 16744 19330 2586 15.4%
SCANDAL ABC 6743 9307 2564 38.0%
BONES FOX 7610 10172 2562 33.7%
Private Practice ABC 6455 9012 2557 39.6%
New Girl FOX 5183 7689 2506 48.4%

The average viewership increase From DVR Viewing ranks which of the top broadcast shows [by Live+7 viewers] had the largest absolute increase in average viewership by DVR between the Live + Same Day and Live + 7 day ratings measurements.
Do the Live+7 ratings tell us anything about a show's renewal prospects we didn't already know from the Live+Same Day ratings?  No.  Click here to learn more.

To see the previous most DVR'd TV Shows lists click here.

Definitions:

DVR (Time-shifted) Adults 18-49 Ratings – Program ratings for national sources are produced in three streams of data LiveLive+Same Day (Live+SD) and Live+7 Day. Time shifted figures account for incremental viewing that takes place with DVRs.

Live+Same Day(Live+SD) ratings include viewing during the same broadcast day as the original telecast, with a cut-off of 3:00AM local time when meters transmit daily viewing to Nielsen for processing.

Live+7 Day ratings include incremental viewing that takes place during the 7 days following a telecast.

DVR Ratings Increase Past Airdate - How many people watched the show on their DVRs within 7 days following the airdate

Until the 2009-2010 season, we used a show's LIVE program rating or viewership as the base upon which the LIVE+7 day DVR viewing was added. Now, the press seems to be standardizing around using LIVE+SAME DAY DVR viewing as the base for the calculations, so that's what we do now as well.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data:©2011 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

 

 
  • joss

    lol HIMYM with 4.7 wich is even with last season premiere damn you the voice you murdered entire Monday night

  • Bobby

    Wow 666 Park Ave. Is pretty high on the list. Do TV companies take these DVR ratings into account before they decide to cancel a show??

  • Colin

    @Bobby, CW did for 90210.

  • Ultima

    @Bobby
    Do TV companies take these DVR ratings into account before they decide to cancel a show??

    The networks go off of the C+3 ratings (commercial views live and within three days of airing).

    In general, you should ignore DVR numbers because they rarely change the relative ordering of the shows.

  • a p garcia

    I couldn’t think of the right place to put this, but when Reba’s show finally premieres, I feel it is on the wrong date.

  • Tyson

    “Do TV companies take these DVR ratings into account before they decide to cancel a show??”

    No. Advertisers hate DVR users since they typically skip commercials. Broadcast networks hate whatever advertisers hate since advertisers pay the bills.

  • were123

    Live + 7 are always so much better, if just they counted… I mean look at Up all Night! It got a 2.1! It’s frustraiting they matter little into renewals :(

  • Melanie

    Whatever happens with Revolution’s ratings, one excuse that can’t be used is that people didn’t sample it. Because live and DVR– they sure did.
    H5O got a good sized DVR bump in the Mon 10PM hour as well.

  • Clarkwood

    I wonder if Advertisers know just how many ppl start shows 8min and 18min past into the show so they can watch the show very close to live but skip all the commercials. Let alone all of those that press pause go and do something then come back and skip commercials.

    I bet there are a decent number that do this. A min of 42% watch post airdate. That is a lot. So it stands to reason that a lot of same day +3 and same day also find ways to not watch the commercials.

    What makes live/live+3 that much more prone to watch commercials? Yeah, I’m sure more do watch commercials live. But I wouldn’t bet on it being that much of a gain and that since ppl still watch commercials, apparently (since advertisers are good with +3), live+3 that some will also watch +7.

    In fact, if you watch live commercials and all how often would you go back to a commercial? I would think those that go back to watch a commercial would be more willing to do so when they aren’t watching live and have set aside time to watch their shows. Ppl care way more about the show than the commercials while watching live. The reason to deal with the commercials is so you can be with your circle of friends and not be behind. Otherwise, it would be much wiser to watch Sundays shows Monday Night and Mondays shows Tuesday etc. You would be able to watch 1 or 2 more shows during that same time frame and only be 1 day behind.

    Now, if the advertisers tell me that a lot of live viewers are couch potatoes who don’t go to the bathroom, chat online, grab a snack, chat with others in the room, kids show them their projects, etc during commercial breaks then all the above is basically negated. But, in this day and age, I highly doubt it.

    Bottomline, I think Live viewers aren’t watching and digesting commercials that much more than everyone else. I don’t have any hard data backing me up though. So, I could be wrong. Does Nielson actually recognize all the issues I raise and do the advertisers see that as well? Meaning while these numbers aren’t actual eyeballs watching the commercials they correlate to a similar rank so the TVBTN etc numbers that we see make sense.

  • Ultima

    @were123
    Live + 7 are always so much better, if just they counted… I mean look at Up all Night! It got a 2.1! It’s frustraiting they matter little into renewals

    Up All Night’s 2.1 looks good compared to the other shows’ Live+SD ratings, but compared to their Live+7 numbers, it is still doing poorly and would still be canceled.

    Relative numbers matter, not absolute numbers.

  • Holly

    @clarkwood,

    I wonder if Advertisers know just how many ppl start shows 8min and 18min past into the show so they can watch the show very close to live but skip all the commercials

    They do. In fact, they based their rates on the C3 ratings, which includes only the commercial viewing within the first three days. Those who fast forward or channel surf through the commercials are not counted. They also assume a certain amount of leaving the room, but obviously that’s impossible to get an exact figure on.

  • Ultima

    @Clarkwood
    What makes live/live+3 that much more prone to watch commercials?

    The primary issue is the time sensitivity of advertising (mostly anything more than just getting name recognitiion). Someone watching the commercial within three days is much more useful than in 7 or 14 days if the later viewing make the commercial irrelevant.

    Does Nielson actually recognize all the issues I raise and do the advertisers see that as well?

    There’s no possible way Nielsen can measure if someone is just tuning out a commercial or ducks out of the room for a couple minutes. All they can measure is if the commercial played on the TV, which is what they do (commercial ratings, not show ratings, are what actually matters).

    It’s hard to judge how effective a commercial is, but it’s safe to say that a commercial playing is going to be more effective than one that is skipped by a DVR.

  • Clarkwood

    SO these rating that we get daily are they commercial ratings? I think you are saying No.
    I’m glad they don’t count those that watch the show but not the ads, since product placement doesn’t pay much or exist that much if at all in many shows.
    But the hard to figure out, “Does the number of live viewers that don’t fast forward actually pay attention or are doing something else?”, is, I bet, a big enough figure that it should be addressed. So big that it might prove that more people pay attention not live than live to the commercials. Without the hard research, it’s just a guessing/speculation game.

    I doubt much ads are that time sensitive. Car commercials if timed are usually for a month “Truck Month”, Movies are out for months @ a time. Certain days of the week like Domino’s Tuesday happens every Tuesday. So, no time isn’t much of an issue save for more the local market commercials and even then it’s only for the grocery stores, tickets to a game/show/event or similar. And, not that many watch past 3 days anyways much less past 7 days. If they do, they aren’t watching commercials. Why would they?

    So, if TVBTN et. all gives us show ratings and not commercial ratings, I bet that is the biggest reason behind when the predictions aren’t right. Most of the time the numbers correlate along the same basic lines. But in some cases they don’t.

    So, a rating that we see may be low but if a lot of the viewers don’t fast forward commercials, the show can still get renewed. Or a borderline rating we would think would get renewed turns out not to be renewed b/c a lot of the viewers fast forward commercials. All b/c we don’t get the commercial rating, which is the number advertisers use. They don’t use the show rating. Show rating is for Network Promotion. And, b/c it is close enough to actual ranking TVBTN et all can use these with very good accuracy.

  • Alec

    wow, with DVR ratings Revolution is the second highest rated scripted show, after Modern Family.

    Anyway, some people are asking how much these DVR ratings matter, while others claim that they don’t matter at all. I’ll just add my 2 cents with this: I was listening the NPR the other day, where they were talking about this very subject. An expert who was a guest on the show claimed that they do, in fact, matter to the networks. though, they obviously do not matter nearly as much as the live ratings. However advertisers are willing to take into consideration that at least some of their products are flashing on the screen as the viewers fast forward through the commercials.

  • Holly

    @clarkwood,

    For the most part only paying customers get the C3 ratings. On very rare occasion (once or twice a year) we’ll see them. When we have seen them, they are generally at or below the Live+SD numbers, so those still make a reasonable substitute.

  • Ultima

    @Clarkwood
    SO these rating that we get daily are they commercial ratings?

    No, we basically never see commercial ratings. Practically everything we see is show ratings (except for preliminary overnights, which are time period ratings).

    So, if TVBTN et. all gives us show ratings and not commercial ratings, I bet that is the biggest reason behind when the predictions aren’t right.

    Nope. The difference between the relative Live+SD ratings and C+3 ratings is insignificant. Both will give you the same likely renewals, cancellations and toss-ups.

    Syndication value and production cost can have a significant impact, both on outlier shows (should be canceled but is cheap or close to syndication; should be renewed but is too expensive) and especially on toss-up shows (there was no way to know which CSI spinoff CBS would renew last season based off of ratings).

    And then sometimes, networks just do crazy things, like renewing Body of Proof.

  • Ram510

    Funny how Castle and Scandal got the same numbers

    Also interesting to see that all of CBS’ line up gained 1.1 in the demo except for Partner and Mike & Molly. Seems like those 2 are the weak links

  • Laughing

    Joe Adalian is actually trying to spin this as some sort of victory for The Mindy Project (which you’ll notice is not on the list). Seriously, it’s getting sad.

  • Casey

    LSD, L3, L7, L365 L4,293,765,180 it just doesn’t matter for Partners. Tomorrow had better be the last week of this experiment gone horribly wrong.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Laughing, perhaps I’m just old, but that’s more funny than sad!

    In Live+SD ratings Mindy was ahead of 666 Park Ave (2.4 vs. 2.1,) but in L+7, 666 Park Ave edged it out (3.2 to 3.1). Though Mindy rated higher than the New Normal that week both in Live+SD and Live+7 (3.1 vs. 3.0) The New Normal got more post-SD DVR benefit (1.0 vs. 0.7) and was up 50% on that basis vs. 29% for Mindy.

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