ABC: 'Last Resort' & '666 Park Avenue' Are Certain To Be Canceled, But When Will It Happen?

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 16th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice :cry: :cry: canceled 10/19 0.63
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.66
Last Resort :oops: 0.71
Scandal :| :| :| 0.76
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.77
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.88
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.93
Nashville :) :) :) :) 1.04
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.89

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10/19 Update: Private Practice has been canceled.
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Last week, I changed my prediction for 666 Park Avenue to "certain to be canceled" this week I'm changing Last Resort. The Cancellation Bear is certain he'll be feasting on both shows by the end of the season.

While both shows are certain to be canceled, folks often wonder about how long they'll last on the schedule. Guessing that timing is a lot harder for the cancellation bear than just the final outcome, but I'll give it a try.

History:

  • Last season, Charlie’s Angels lasted 7 episodes going 2.1, 1.5, 1.2, 1.3, 1.3, 1.2, 1.1 [yank] in Last Resort's timeslot.
  • Two seasons ago My Generation went 1.6, 1.1 [yank] in that slot.
  • Pan Am lasted 14 episodes on Sunday at 10pm last season, going 3.1, 2.6, 1.9, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 1.7, 1.8, 1.5, 1.3, 1.2, 1.2, 0.7, 1.2 [yank]
Present:

Both of this seasons doomed dramas are doing better than Charlie's Angels, but worse than Pan Am. On that basis, I'd expect somewhere between 7 and 13 episodes each. An extra episode or two ordered for scheduling purposes (like Pan Am received) would not surprise me. Although certainly any extra episodes will give hope to the crazy and desperate, just like Pan Am did last season, some of whom still aren't sure it was canceled. Did I mention that it did great internationally?

Why is Castle likely to be renewed, with almost exactly the same ratings as Scandal which is only a "toss up"? While Castle is already sold into syndication, and will by the end of this season have more than the required minimum number of episodes for stripped syndication, my conventional wisdom is that more episodes are always better (for the bottom line). Scandal doesn't benefit from that assumption since it's only a sophomore.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • anas

    666 :(

  • Jeff (Canada)

    I would think that they would get yanked once they hit 1.0-1.2 in the ratings, whenever that may be.

  • Marlene

    Ok, so let me get this straight. In the last Bubble Watch report Castle was still unsure and now it’s “more likely to be renewed”?
    Not complaining! I’m a Castle fan, but am I missing something?

  • Ali

    I just wish they would announce that Private Practice wont be coming back already and give the writers time to wrap things off…

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Bubble Watch report Castle was still unsure and now it’s “more likely to be renewed”?
    Not complaining! I’m a Castle fan, but am I missing something?”

    Bubble Watch = Robert’s analysis

    Renew/Cancel Index = mine

    Your mileage = may vary

  • Roosterhead

    @Marlene,

    These are two different reports. They both look at things slightly differently.

    The reports aren’t that much different because last week’s version of this report had Castle as a bubble show.

    The reality of the situation is that Castle has been stable while everything around it has dropped.

    Or, to put it in Cancellation Bear terms, Castle is still running the same pace while everything else started really fast and has been slowing down of late.

  • Lynn

    666 is garbage but Last Resort is amazing I will enjoy while it last. Hopefully ABC has now learned there lesson about the Thursday death slot. If you want to succeed in that slot put a female drama there or least something compatible with Grey’s, becuase no male orientated drama no matter how fantastic is, is going to succeed in that slot opposite football and Chuck Lorre’s overrated comedies.

  • @ramirescl

    Oh hell. 666 and LR are so dead :(

  • TheTVGod

    Last Resort is fantastic…I don’t think it got very good promotion. They really should have shown some ramped-up action and pushed for the Expendables crowd (even though there is some great political stuff happening their too.)
    Maybe added some more genre casting (grab some of the Stargate people!) to get the fanboys to tune in.

  • Silent Hunter

    Castle is maintaining a steady rating (coming 2nd in its timeslot as well) and I imagine that it’s relatively cheap to produce, unlike something like LR.

  • DonMedia

    Last Resort is good, but like “The Event” (16 hours of my life I’ll never get back), they have enough story for a good miniseries, but not even a full season.

  • aletuve

    Last resort deserve respect… is fantastic, why Amercan don’t watch it??

  • aletuve

    Last resort deserve respect… is fantastic, why American don’t watch it??

  • AppleStinx

    Things are getting desperate for the Cancellation Bear. After being force-fed “Next Caller” last week, it hasn’t had anything to eat. :cool:

  • Lynn

    @TheTVGod Last Resort had tons of promotion the real problem is the timeslot it was put it.

  • Lynn

    @aletuve because most Americans are stupid and would rather kill there brain cells watching The Big Bang Theory.

  • Honey Badger

    Private Practice
    666 Park Avenue
    Last Resort
    Scandal
    Nashville

    will all to be cancelled by ABC

    btw like the bear picture

  • Lynn

    Nashville will survive, it is ABC save-face this season.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    Lynn, you’ve covered “people are too stupid” and “its in the wrong timeslot”, and in a stretch “ABC is run by morons”. Two more squares for a Fan Excuse Bingo!

  • Nope

    CASTLE/ONCE UPON A TIME/THE MIDDLE ARE AWESOME

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