ABC: 'Last Resort' & '666 Park Avenue' Are Certain To Be Canceled, But When Will It Happen?

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 16th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice :cry: :cry: canceled 10/19 0.63
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.66
Last Resort :oops: 0.71
Scandal :| :| :| 0.76
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.77
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.88
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.93
Nashville :) :) :) :) 1.04
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.89

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10/19 Update: Private Practice has been canceled.
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Last week, I changed my prediction for 666 Park Avenue to "certain to be canceled" this week I'm changing Last Resort. The Cancellation Bear is certain he'll be feasting on both shows by the end of the season.

While both shows are certain to be canceled, folks often wonder about how long they'll last on the schedule. Guessing that timing is a lot harder for the cancellation bear than just the final outcome, but I'll give it a try.

History:

  • Last season, Charlie’s Angels lasted 7 episodes going 2.1, 1.5, 1.2, 1.3, 1.3, 1.2, 1.1 [yank] in Last Resort's timeslot.
  • Two seasons ago My Generation went 1.6, 1.1 [yank] in that slot.
  • Pan Am lasted 14 episodes on Sunday at 10pm last season, going 3.1, 2.6, 1.9, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 1.7, 1.8, 1.5, 1.3, 1.2, 1.2, 0.7, 1.2 [yank]
Present:

Both of this seasons doomed dramas are doing better than Charlie's Angels, but worse than Pan Am. On that basis, I'd expect somewhere between 7 and 13 episodes each. An extra episode or two ordered for scheduling purposes (like Pan Am received) would not surprise me. Although certainly any extra episodes will give hope to the crazy and desperate, just like Pan Am did last season, some of whom still aren't sure it was canceled. Did I mention that it did great internationally?

Why is Castle likely to be renewed, with almost exactly the same ratings as Scandal which is only a "toss up"? While Castle is already sold into syndication, and will by the end of this season have more than the required minimum number of episodes for stripped syndication, my conventional wisdom is that more episodes are always better (for the bottom line). Scandal doesn't benefit from that assumption since it's only a sophomore.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Mitchell

    666 and Last Resort are both suspenseful intriguing and interesting as usual ABC doesnt comprehend what taste is .

  • Jill Reagan

    666 is really good…interesting, and full of surprises. Unfortunately it’s in the same time slot at Good Wife; so change the time slot!

  • June

    Of course Last Resort would be cancelled. It is too clean. If it had vivid sex and foul language it would stay. Also it is too much like what is happening in the real world. You folks ever think that all the tradgies in the world; especially in a nation that has been founded on God’s principals, would not be carrying on the way it does. Get morals and values back where they should be and maybe God would have to keep trying to get us back to putting him first.

  • gorillamom

    666 is just pure fun. Like the old “POW” and other punch sounds from the old Batman comic show. I’ll miss it if it goes.

  • tlhintoq

    Last Resort, like Revolution are just such completely silly concepts that I am stunned they made it to air without being a spoof such as Scrubs.

    Come on, a nuke sub that decides to not take orders from its government and manages to survive more than 48 hours without the entire navy coming to recover or sink it? I couldn’t even tune it for the first episode of such none-sense based only on the commercials and press releases.

    Its as completely ludicrous as Revolution with its idea that electricity doesn’t work, but humans still are alive (despite needing electricity to power the brain and nervous system)… Then by episode 3 a necklace turns a PC back on and all the network devices between it and another terminal are working so conspirators can chat… and the other guy was right there at the terminal responding in 4 seconds.

    Shows like these are just plain insulting to anyone with an IQ greater than their neck size.

    666 is slow – and no basis in reality (its demons and magic for pete sake) – but its was designed and presented to be about fantasy. If you tune into a fantasy horror show you do it with the mind-set to accept it: Like a comic-book move such as Iron Man or Avengers, or Grimm or Once Upon A Time.

    But you can’t bill a show as military drama and wrap it in real-world stories – then ask the audience to put aware their understanding and belief in reality. Its a formula for failure.

  • Martine

    I completely agree with John.

  • Martine

    Last resort is a disgustingly anti American premise. When you are told to do something by a comanding officver, you do it. And I doubt anyone thinks that America has a problem with Arab Spring because they are “brown”.

  • Andrey

    Everyone who like those shows:
    Last Resort
    Scandal
    Castle
    Revenge
    Once Upon A Time

    Please watch them. We need to get the rating up. To have more seasons.

  • Martine

    Well, then there is nothing on ABCI want to watch. So itll make things simple. I was so upset by the anti American attitude of Last Resort I kind of wanted to be done with ABC. But I like 666, and will continue to watch however long it lasts. then I am avoiding the network. For them to OK a script like LR makes me just want to stay away from them.

  • Martine

    OOPs. Said that alredy. Sorry to double up. Its hard to see when I am posting or not. My appologies. I pushed that thing three times.

  • Martine

    OOPs. Said that already. Sorry to double up. Its hard to see when I am posting or not. My appologies. I pushed that thing three times.

  • Pattamus

    I’m liking Last Resort, too bad it will be cancelled after this season. I just hope they wrap it up enough, it really could have been a great mini-series.

    As far as 666 Park ave, I liked the premise, wanted it to be decent, but it’s just too cheesy. Watch American Horror Story for a decent horror/drama.

  • Gibs Nolan

    666 Park Avenue is amazing to receive such a low rating. :(

  • martine

    I love 666 and sad its being chased…but the picture of that bear is just too funny.

  • Julie B

    THEY CAN’T CANT CANCEL “LAST RESORT”!!!!!!!

    THIS SHOW HAS BEEN AND STILL IS EVERY WEEK EDGE-OF-YOUR-SEAT NON-STOP ACTION PACKED DRAMA!

    LOVE LAST RESORT!

  • Lynne F

    Lynn…666 Park Avenue is NOT trash…it is becoming a very entertaining show. As for Last Resort, I really like that show and hope they pick it up again.

  • Lynne F

    I know it’s kind of a stupid show but I REALLY hope The Neighbors gets picked up again..that little blonde haired kid is soooo freakish he’s cute!

  • upset

    I am very upset about 666 park ave being canceled i love this show…it leaves you on the edge of your seat and waiting fof the next episode…i also know alot of people who like it and are also upset…i wish they would give it a second chance…

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