ABC: 'Last Resort' & '666 Park Avenue' Are Certain To Be Canceled, But When Will It Happen?

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 16th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice :cry: :cry: canceled 10/19 0.63
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.66
Last Resort :oops: 0.71
Scandal :| :| :| 0.76
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.77
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.88
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.93
Nashville :) :) :) :) 1.04
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.89

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10/19 Update: Private Practice has been canceled.
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Last week, I changed my prediction for 666 Park Avenue to "certain to be canceled" this week I'm changing Last Resort. The Cancellation Bear is certain he'll be feasting on both shows by the end of the season.

While both shows are certain to be canceled, folks often wonder about how long they'll last on the schedule. Guessing that timing is a lot harder for the cancellation bear than just the final outcome, but I'll give it a try.

History:

  • Last season, Charlie’s Angels lasted 7 episodes going 2.1, 1.5, 1.2, 1.3, 1.3, 1.2, 1.1 [yank] in Last Resort's timeslot.
  • Two seasons ago My Generation went 1.6, 1.1 [yank] in that slot.
  • Pan Am lasted 14 episodes on Sunday at 10pm last season, going 3.1, 2.6, 1.9, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 1.7, 1.8, 1.5, 1.3, 1.2, 1.2, 0.7, 1.2 [yank]
Present:

Both of this seasons doomed dramas are doing better than Charlie's Angels, but worse than Pan Am. On that basis, I'd expect somewhere between 7 and 13 episodes each. An extra episode or two ordered for scheduling purposes (like Pan Am received) would not surprise me. Although certainly any extra episodes will give hope to the crazy and desperate, just like Pan Am did last season, some of whom still aren't sure it was canceled. Did I mention that it did great internationally?

Why is Castle likely to be renewed, with almost exactly the same ratings as Scandal which is only a "toss up"? While Castle is already sold into syndication, and will by the end of this season have more than the required minimum number of episodes for stripped syndication, my conventional wisdom is that more episodes are always better (for the bottom line). Scandal doesn't benefit from that assumption since it's only a sophomore.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Lynn

    @ bill I do not play fan bingo and feel like every time someone mentions it they are trying to haze me. So would appreciate it you and other people would quit bother me with it.

  • Lynn

    *bothering me with it

  • Ann

    most Americans are stupid and would rather kill there brain cells

    Nicely done.

  • Dan

    I think that ABC will let at least one of the two between 666 Park Avenue and Last Resort last all 13 episodes. They may not want to admit defeat but its likely that Last Resort will last through November and December, burning through its order and then be axed. 666 Park Avenue may get a bridge like extension until a replacement is found, maybe 3-5 additional episodes.

    Last season and the one before Charlie’s Angels and My Generation were yanked by November but I think ABC may be willing to let their struggling freshman dramas last through November since they have no drama hits this year.

  • Jimmy

    Why am I so over OUAT this season? I still watch and will keep on watching..but hopefully Hook brings back the IT story. Sadden for 666 though…what a bummer.

    REVENGE!!!! :)

  • SarahL

    I like Scandal, but I think that the bear gets it after the 13 episodes ordered this season. Hopefully, Shonda wraps it up with a bow.

  • Chris

    It’s an absolute shame Last Resort’s ratings are like they are. ABC needs a show that is male-skewing and LR is male-skewing because it is a military themed show. Got a ton of promotion on ESPN but apparently hasn’t helped…

  • THE OLD MAN

    Have to agree with this post, here, William. 1.5 (until Mob Doctor) seems to be the point where the yankathons start (Sun-Thurs).

    Looks like 7-13 eps is a safe bet for both.

  • tv#1

    A Possible mid-season ABC Schedule

    Mon:
    8 Bachelor/DWTS
    10 Castle

    Tue:

    Jan-Mar Mar-May
    8 The Neighbors 8 Happy Endings
    8:30 The Family Tools 8:30 Don’t Trust the B– in Apt 23
    9 Happy Endings 9 DWTS Results
    9:30 Don’t Trust the B– in Apt 23 10 Red Widow
    10 Zero Hour

    Wed:
    8 The Middle
    8:30 How to live with your Parents (for the rest of your life)
    9 Modern Family
    9:30 Suburgatory
    10 Nashville

    Thur:
    8 Private Practice (full season order)
    9 Grey’s Anatomy
    10 Scandal

    Fri:
    8 Last Man Standing
    8:30 Malibu Country
    9-11 Same as now

    Sun:
    8 Once Upon a Time
    9 Revenge
    10 Mistresses

  • Jeff R.

    Last Resort: I still say they should announce any new episodes specifically as a series finale, retroactively declare the thing a miniseries and try to score a few cheap Emmy nominations.

  • Dan

    Not sure if this is fan excuse or logic but my guess is “As long as ABC has no breakout hits, Castle will be safe” Thats what kept it and Private Practice around so long. The failures of the 2008-2009, 2009-2010, and 2010-2011 season saved those shows. ABC has one show every season that saves face since 05-06.

    2005-2006 What About Brian
    2007-2008 Private Practice
    2008-2009 Castle
    2009-2010 V
    2010-2011 Body of Proof

    This season it could be Nashville or a midseason show, but if ABC has not hits, Castle is safe.

  • Kelly

    @ tv#1

    I had the same prediction for Sunday as you did once I knew 666 was performing less that par.

  • Lynn

    @Ann

    Really that is all you got for me? A simple spelling mistake? Whatever.

  • Tyson

    Lynn, if you don’t like being called on your Fan Excuse Bingo excuses then stop offering them.

  • a p garcia

    666 please ASAP move last Resort to a new timeslot like in place of 666.

  • Fake Me Out

    @Ann

    “most Americans are stupid and would rather kill there brain cells”

    Nicely done.

    Oh irony, thy name is Lynn. I guess Lynn was too busy playing Fan Excuse Bingo to notice and/or is a closet Big Bang Theory viewer.

    ymmv

  • Ann

    @Lynn

    Really that is all you got for me? A simple spelling mistake? Whatever.

    You call other people stupid, and then you make an easy spelling mistake. I enjoy calling out hypocrisy.

  • Bookworm

    I’m no pro at this so this is just all speculation (isn’t it all?) but I think that Last Resort and 666 Park Slope are probably done. Private Practice is going to get it a final season, I think that is already in the works since the rumors were around since they started and they only got a few episodes and with Kate leaving, there is no real reason to bring it back. I think the Neighbors might get the axe if Suburgatory does well and also Apt.23, it will really depend though.

    Nashville might stick around if their rating keep up. If they get to the lower 2.0’s, I’m not sure if ABC will be okay with that. Either way, it is probably a toss up.

    Castle and Scandal are toss ups but I think they both will come back with Castle getting its final season and Scandal being on the chopping block the following season if they don’t pick up. That or they will bring it back on a new night. As a whole, I don’t believe Scandal will get an additional order but it won’t be because it’s cancelled but simply because what Shonda wants. She’s been really stuck with the “cable feel” for this show and I think she will continue to opt for those avg. episode orders. Paul Lee seems to agree and it makes Scandal a decent rating show with a smaller cast and lower cost, really not much of a lost there.

    I’m hoping for the best and I think if Scandal can average 2.0 like its been doing, it has a better chance of coming back since there are a few other shows, drams especially, that are hitting below that and ABC would get rid of them first probably.

  • K_Will

    I love Last Resort. It’s gonna suck so much when it gets cancelled.

    It’s also starting to make me wonder just what the heck do people want to see on tv. It seems like everything is reality tv in some form or another.

  • Lynn

    @Ann I am not a hypocrite. I made a simple spelling mistake that does make me stupid.

    @Fake Me Out Excuse me? Quit hazing me with the stupid bingo thing you all are into. You do not have to haze people with the bingo, but you choose to so why don’t YOU stop. If you did not like what I was saying then actually tell me and act like a mature adult about it instead of harassing me.

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