ABC: 'Last Resort' & '666 Park Avenue' Are Certain To Be Canceled, But When Will It Happen?

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 16th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice :cry: :cry: canceled 10/19 0.63
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.66
Last Resort :oops: 0.71
Scandal :| :| :| 0.76
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.77
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.88
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.93
Nashville :) :) :) :) 1.04
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.89

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10/19 Update: Private Practice has been canceled.
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Last week, I changed my prediction for 666 Park Avenue to "certain to be canceled" this week I'm changing Last Resort. The Cancellation Bear is certain he'll be feasting on both shows by the end of the season.

While both shows are certain to be canceled, folks often wonder about how long they'll last on the schedule. Guessing that timing is a lot harder for the cancellation bear than just the final outcome, but I'll give it a try.

History:

  • Last season, Charlie’s Angels lasted 7 episodes going 2.1, 1.5, 1.2, 1.3, 1.3, 1.2, 1.1 [yank] in Last Resort's timeslot.
  • Two seasons ago My Generation went 1.6, 1.1 [yank] in that slot.
  • Pan Am lasted 14 episodes on Sunday at 10pm last season, going 3.1, 2.6, 1.9, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 1.7, 1.8, 1.5, 1.3, 1.2, 1.2, 0.7, 1.2 [yank]
Present:

Both of this seasons doomed dramas are doing better than Charlie's Angels, but worse than Pan Am. On that basis, I'd expect somewhere between 7 and 13 episodes each. An extra episode or two ordered for scheduling purposes (like Pan Am received) would not surprise me. Although certainly any extra episodes will give hope to the crazy and desperate, just like Pan Am did last season, some of whom still aren't sure it was canceled. Did I mention that it did great internationally?

Why is Castle likely to be renewed, with almost exactly the same ratings as Scandal which is only a "toss up"? While Castle is already sold into syndication, and will by the end of this season have more than the required minimum number of episodes for stripped syndication, my conventional wisdom is that more episodes are always better (for the bottom line). Scandal doesn't benefit from that assumption since it's only a sophomore.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • JTV

    ABC is in some serious serious trouble.

    -DWTS is no longer the pop culture or ratings beast it once was
    -Last Resort & 666 Park Avenue
    -Zero Hour & Red Widow look D.O.A (seriously, go watch the trailers)
    -Happy Endings & Don’t Trust the B—- will probably collapse in their new timeslots
    -Private Practice is done for
    -Scandal is clearly not going to be around long
    -How many more seasons can they really keep Grey’s on for until the cast leaves?
    -Revenge may be a modest hit, but it’s not a breakout like they need
    -The Neighbors has zero favor with critics
    -Family Tools stars infamous show-killer Kyle Bornheimer
    -Wednesdays are weak without Modern Family to boost everyone

    -How to Live with your Parents could be a hit, I expect it to follow Modern Family, Suburgatory to move back behind the Middle, and Neighbors cancelled.

  • Gregg

    I think The Last Resort would be great — on CBS. I could see that show doing well in place of Vegas on Tuesdays at 10:00.

    It reminds me of the time NBC cancelled JAG after one season, and CBS ran it for 9 more years to big ratings (plus 2 successful spin-offs). I wonder if CBS is eying Last Resort for a little poaching action if ABC cancels it.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    Lynn, I understand you don’t like the concept of Fan Excuse Bingo, but I think it’s a much more fun way to point out that the things people write about their favorite, yet doomed (or kinda doomed) shows are silly/irrelevant and have been repeated countless times before by many other people.

    However, if you prefer that I rephrase my earlier comment, so be it.

    Lynn, all the things you wrote about Last Resort have been written countless times by fans of countless other doomed shows. They are all irrelevant to the show’s future now. It’s going to be canceled, enjoy it while you can.

  • NCJeff

    Trying to recall last season, think more shows were cancelled by this point. Maybe someone knows the actual numbers. That said, the way the networks are hanging on to the new shows like Partners or Last Resort, this aught to be titled the season of low expectations.

  • NCJeff

    Last Resort didn’t click with me and judging from the ratings I’m not as alone with that as I am with some other shows.

    The reason I think Last Resort would get axed sooner is the understanding that Thursday nights tend to have a premium for advertisers targeting weekend activities. Movie theaters promote on Thursday for a Friday release, etc. That would seem to put the task of shoring up the 8:00 hour on Thursday higher on the to-do list.

  • Ultima

    @Lynn
    I made a simple spelling mistake that does make me stupid

    :lol:

  • rob60990

    ^LMAO

    “2007-2008 Private Practice”

    I wouldn’t necesarily call this a save face renewal since this was the year of the writer’s strike and ABC renewed that whole Wednesday lineup including Dirty Sexy Money & Pushing Daisies. In fall 2008, Dirty Sexy Money & Pushing Daisies were regularly below a 2 while Private Practice stayed around the low to mid 2s. They cancelled the 2 other shows and moved Private Practice after Grey’s to help strengthen it.

  • burntfur

    that’s an easy one…once American Horror Story starts again.

  • Lynn

    @ Bill

    Thank you for being honest, I will enjoy Last Resort while I can.

  • Casey

    The Middle should be regarded as a lock to return next season because the syndication Gods demand it.

    Also, I love how 666 Park Avenue has an index of .66.

  • Ricky

    How sad, people don’t wanna watch Last Resort. Why? Do people actually want to continue the ABC death slot curse?

    If you wanna play, come and play today, the Elimination Game, yeah… http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/play-the-elimination-game/152342/

  • Androme

    I have a feeling that ABC will be The New NBC at the end of this season.

  • Androme

    No offense to NBC.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “The Middle should be regarded as a lock to return next season because the syndication Gods demand it.”

    Currently I’m going to limit the syndication gods to only demanding a fourth season for current third season shows, but in the future their demands may grow!

    “Also, I love how 666 Park Avenue has an index of .66.”

    I have unknowingly engaged in the rounding off of The Beast!

  • Joseph

    It’s a matter of time for 666, i’m gonna miss it! (a little bit).

  • BigBrotherFan

    666 Park Ave. is a great show! I really wish they would stick with it.
    Last Resort is great, too. Love the cast, except Scott Speedmen-he’s the one thing I’d change about it. Other than that-Great show!
    Nashvile-I loved! I would not change a thing…yet and hope it picks up!
    Be DONE withn Neigbours..Horrible show..HORRIBLE!

  • Honey Badger

    @ Lynn please keep posting, I like your comments

    Don’t take the remarks by others seriously; it is just part of the fun on this site.
    I personally like it when Bill Gorman and Robert Seidman and others use a clever sarcastic remark about my postings, it is a badge of honor. Of course I am always right!
    It is hard to be this good and still look this pretty.

  • Wright

    I wish people would watch 666 and Last Resort they are really good shows. Glad to see OUAT doing well.

  • Stephen

    I think LR went low last week due to the debate and it being the only new show on that night for ABC. If it can bounce back a tenth or two it might complete it’s 13 episode order. If it drops again this week though then I doubt it airs a new episode during Nov. sweeps at least not in that slot. Winter Wipeout or specials or repeats of Grey’s could take over.

    Park Ave even though lower rated might air all 13 eps since I don’t think there’s anything to quickly put in its place. Any midseason show ABC should want to promote and it wouldn’t premiere until at least January. If the show drops much further though it will have to get pulled and maybe primetime specials or something similar fills the slot for awhile.

  • AprilFox

    I gave 666 a try because of Terry O’Quinn and Vanessa Williams, but it’s just so poorly written, directed and edited, even they can’t save this stinker. Last Resort, I don’t even know what to say, I watch it but it’s a soap in a sub. HUH? Brutal. Vegas is a little better but not by much, makes me miss the show Las Vegas which was much better. I think all three will be gone soon.

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