ABC: 'Last Resort' & '666 Park Avenue' Are Certain To Be Canceled, But When Will It Happen?

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 16th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice :cry: :cry: canceled 10/19 0.63
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.66
Last Resort :oops: 0.71
Scandal :| :| :| 0.76
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.77
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.88
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.93
Nashville :) :) :) :) 1.04
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.89

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10/19 Update: Private Practice has been canceled.
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Last week, I changed my prediction for 666 Park Avenue to "certain to be canceled" this week I'm changing Last Resort. The Cancellation Bear is certain he'll be feasting on both shows by the end of the season.

While both shows are certain to be canceled, folks often wonder about how long they'll last on the schedule. Guessing that timing is a lot harder for the cancellation bear than just the final outcome, but I'll give it a try.

History:

  • Last season, Charlie’s Angels lasted 7 episodes going 2.1, 1.5, 1.2, 1.3, 1.3, 1.2, 1.1 [yank] in Last Resort's timeslot.
  • Two seasons ago My Generation went 1.6, 1.1 [yank] in that slot.
  • Pan Am lasted 14 episodes on Sunday at 10pm last season, going 3.1, 2.6, 1.9, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 1.7, 1.8, 1.5, 1.3, 1.2, 1.2, 0.7, 1.2 [yank]
Present:

Both of this seasons doomed dramas are doing better than Charlie's Angels, but worse than Pan Am. On that basis, I'd expect somewhere between 7 and 13 episodes each. An extra episode or two ordered for scheduling purposes (like Pan Am received) would not surprise me. Although certainly any extra episodes will give hope to the crazy and desperate, just like Pan Am did last season, some of whom still aren't sure it was canceled. Did I mention that it did great internationally?

Why is Castle likely to be renewed, with almost exactly the same ratings as Scandal which is only a "toss up"? While Castle is already sold into syndication, and will by the end of this season have more than the required minimum number of episodes for stripped syndication, my conventional wisdom is that more episodes are always better (for the bottom line). Scandal doesn't benefit from that assumption since it's only a sophomore.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Michael

    It angered me that Last Resort got put in the ABC “death slot”. Such a good show. If it had Scandal or 666 Park Ave’s timeslot, it would do much better.

  • SVU: Fringe Division

    Just for the record *kinda nitpicking*, Pan Am wasn’t yanked, it aired 14 out of it’s 14 ordered episodes. It’s just that the 14th episode wasn’t labeled a finale it was just there to wrap up episode 13′s story lines.

  • Honey Badger

    @ Anthony Parello (AP076) below is why “ I Don’t take the remarks by others seriously; it is just part of the fun on this site. I personally like it when Bill Gorman and Robert Seidman and others use a clever sarcastic remark about my postings, it is a badge of honor.”
    I take it as good natured fun. And that what makes Tvbythenumbers a fun site.
    Now if I could get famous people commenting about me like tvbythenumbers, that would be great.
    Plus look at how the the Cancellation Bear. And Tvbythenumbers.com were addressed. And the Cancellation Bear.was proved correct.

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/05/11/the-cancellation-bear-wishes-kathy-bates-well-as-harrys-law-is-canceled/133531/

    The Cancellation Bear Wishes Kathy Bates Well, As ‘Harry’s Law’ Is Canceled

    Categories: Broadcast TV
    Written By Bill Gorman
    May 11th, 2012

    After NBC’s lowest rated show still on the air, Harry’s Law, was canceled as expected, TV by the Numbers’ beloved cancellation bear wanted to wish his “friend” Kathy Bates all the best after devouring the show.
    Burp.
    Update: For those who didn’t want to click the link above, here’s a bit of the history between HL and the bear:
    A bit of hub bub while I was off last week, as Kathy Bates, the star of NBC’s Harry’s Law, vented publicly about not liking the fact that adults 18-49 ratings determine TV show success in broadcast primetime (and have since the 1970′s), and took our very own cancellation bear to task in an EW.com article.
    “Some of these people are just so stupid. I don’t even get it…. All [they] talk about is the blessed [18-49] demo this, demo that, and how the Cancellation Bear is gonna eat us and all that stuff. So we’ll see. We’ll just see.”
    The only thing our cancellation bear likes more than devouring low rated shows is getting a public shout out from an Academy Award winner. It’s better to be known, than loved!
    Joining Ms. Bates in her anger over the way ad supported broadcast television works was the Executive Producer ofHarry’s Law, Bill D’Elia, who gave us his own shout out:
    WTF is TV by the numbers? Who cares what they think? #harryslaw is most viewed scripted drama on NBC and will return.
    Nobody cares what we think Mr. D’Elia.
    Problem is, the folks selling the advertising at NBC think the same way we do…
    Update: I hadn’t realized that near the same time as the original tweet above, Bill D’Elia also followed up with this one:
    @CassieStackSVU First, tv by the numbers doesn’t know anything. They are misinformed at best, ignorant at worst. Second, Kathy is right.
    Misinformed? Ignorant? Kathy is right?
    Reality’s a bitch isn’t it Mr. D’Elia?

  • Michael

    Poor Last Resort… D:

  • Jared K

    I enjoy Last Resort, and I feel bad for Shawn Ryan, who has either created or produced several shows I’ve really liked in the past (enduring greats like The Shield, fleeting greats like Terriers, solid, promising shows like the Unit and The Chicago Code). Despite this, I agree with the numbers and the general consensus on these boards that Last Resort will be cancelled.

    Perhaps this is overly optimistic, but I DO think that Last Resort will get to air all 13 episodes from its original order. ABC isn’t going to try and put a new scripted show in that slot until January at the earliest, and while they could pull it for repeats or specials (Wipeout?) until then, why bother? The numbers are bad, but they’re not terrible, and it’s not like the show is hurting Grey’s Anatomy (ABC’s highest rated scripted drama by quite a bit). Any filler that they can stick there is going to get trounced by TBBT, TAAHM, and X Factor, so why not let LR run its course, while they take their, etc) they want to throw into the line of fire.

    666 Park Avenue is dead as a doornail, and I’m not nearly as confident it’ll air all 13 of its original episodes as I am with Last Resort. But again, what is ABC going to put there if they pull it? Repeats of OUAT or Revenge? More likely that it follows the Pan Am track, and disappears from the schedule in early 2013 without a press release of any kind.

  • Honey Badger

    @ Anthony Parello (AP076) another reason I have fun at this site is that you can never beat their predictions. They have more power than the advertisers, the networks, the stars. Apparently they have the power to keep a show on the air or have it cancelled.
    Bill Gorman and Robert Seidman , tvbythenumbers.com and the Cancellation Bear. have magical superpowers.

    TV By The Numbers Is More Powerful Than You Can Possibly Imagine…
    Written By Bill Gorman
    May 14th, 2012
    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/05/14/tv-by-the-numbers-is-more-powerful-than-you-can-possibly-imagine/134047/
    While the claim that TV by the Numbers’ predictions kill shows by influencing large numbers of viewers to stop watching* them are pretty routine in our comments, Harry’s Law executive producer Bill D’Elia thinks we’re a lot more powerful than we actually are too!
    Harry’s Law executive producer Bill D’Elia, tweets : “TVBTN Negativism fuels belief to not watch shows.He influences viewers to not watch something,self fulfilling his prophecy.Just awful

  • tjw

    I’ve gotten kind of tired of this whole “bad timeslot” argument for Last Resort. I looked at the ratings for each timeslot and it turns out that Thursday at 8:00 is actually one of the easiest timeslots to have, more competitive than only Tuesday at 9:00 and Wednesday at 8:00. Even then, the difference is only about a point, so it’s unlikely Last Resort would be able to pull a 2.0 even on a better night.

  • Fake Me Out

    @Lynn

    @Ann … I made a simple spelling mistake that does make me stupid.

    @Fake Me Out Excuse me? Quit hazing me with the stupid bingo thing you all are into. You do not have to haze people with the bingo, but you choose to so why don’t YOU stop. If you did not like what I was saying then actually tell me and act like a mature adult about it instead of harassing me.

    Does a simple spelling mistake make you look stupid? Probably not. Stating you are stupid in your own post … priceless!

    Fan Excuse Bingo, as Bill mentioned a few pages back, is short hand for “ya, ya, ya … been there, heard that”. To be fair, probably most of us have covered a square or two during our commenting time here … but we generally don’t whine aboot it when get called on it.

    ymmv

    #RIPAmanda

    PS: No spelling mistakes in my message, only cultural differences.

  • Dan

    @Rob60990- Thats true about Private Practice however I didn’t really count from 2007,-2008 since most returning dramas from ABC were in the same lineup, PP was the only one to last even with subpar ratings because it moved to 10pm behind Grey’s, but the other dramas numbers were worse.

    Scandal likely wont be renewed if it keeps up these numbers.

  • Tom

    I don’t see either show getting any bonus episodes like Pan Am.

    1) Last Resort has a natural filler in Winter Wipeout. ABC doesn’t need to order additional LRs to fill the hole, they can just jump from WW to the new timeslot holder.

    2) 666′s current ratings arc is so ugly that there is no way ABC will order more episodes.

    I think LR films and airs all 13; I am less convinced 666 goes the distance. In either case, I would be surprised if a 14th episode was produced.

  • Nick

    666 Park – Will be pulled after all the episodes scheduled for fall have aired (I think that’s 10), so Red Widow can take the slot in January)

    Last Resort – Will air all 13 episodes. If they don’t go under 1.5, they may consider giving it a full season and making a male-skewing block with Zero Hour, possibly on Tuesdays.

  • Dan

    @Tom – I could see shows certainly getting bonus episodes, especially this season with no breakout hits drama wise. Nashville has the best chance at a full season but who says that wit wont fall. If anything I could see 666 getting a “bridge” like Detroit 187, A Gifted Man, The Forgotten, or Pan Am. Last Resort will air all 13 episodes only because its performed better than My Generation and Charlie’s Angels but not by much, and at this point it seems more likely that ABC lets it last all 13 without saying its officially dead, like Eastwick or Pan Am. Maybe ABC will order more PP but thats doubtful or maybe ABC could pull one of those shows early if they have Body of Proof available. Who knows, ABC has yet to cancel a show and they have no reason too until November.

  • Dan

    @Nick – They wouldnt move Last Resort to Tuesdays, especially when ABC already has 2 more comedies scheduled for then. If Last Resort gets additional eps (Doubtful) then it will stay in its current slot, if not then it will be cancelled but still stay in its current slot. The difference between Park and Last Resort is on how much Grey’s rises from Resort which shows that no one is watching it, and ABC can use that slot for other series. There’s no point in pulling LR if all 13 eps can air and then ABC has a replacement by January

    666 Park Avenue is having trouble holding on to Revenge but for some reason I think 666 has a better shot to get more eps then Last Resort.

    Bottom line – Both shows will be cancelled by May but I could see ABC ordering more eps of 1 of them to save face at the very least, both will air all 13 episodes ordered.

  • Even Steven

    The very comments section you have here is largely made up of fan excuses. So to take the piss out of all those comments is just insulting! If you want more people to visit this site you need to respect the fan’s wishes which is largely to theorize why some low-rated shows have failed to be successes.

  • Dan

    The bad timeslot excuse for Last Resort is only so because its up against higher rated Big Bang/TAAHM and X Factor. Its doing better than last years ABC shows because NBC comedies are down but that slot has been cursed ever since ABC moved Ugly Betty and FlashForward kept going down. However Wipeout and Peanuts/Holiday specials have done fine there so if Last Resort fails, its because it failed to generate interest and ABC will just have to find a new drama for that slot.

  • tjw

    @Dan

    There’s no such thing as a “cursed” timeslot. Timeslots don’t suck because of that day/time, they suck because of the shows put there. Just look at the Monday 10:00 slot for NBC. Since 2006, here are the shows that have aired there and how many episodes they aired in that slot.

    Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip (22 episodes, canceled in May)
    Journeyman (13 episodes, canceled in May)
    My Own Worst Enemy (9 episodes, canceled in December)
    The Jay Leno Show (20 episodes, canceled in February)
    Chase (13 episodes, canceled in February)
    The Playboy Club (3 episodes, canceled in October)

    You could have called that timeslot cursed until Revolution blew up this Fall. There’s no such thing as a cursed timeslot, just shows that people don’t want to watch.

    And there aren’t many places to put where there isn’t competition. On Sundays, it’d be up against football. On Mondays, it’s be up against The Voice. On Tuesdays it’d be up against NCIS. On Wednesdays it’d be up against X Factor/Survivor. You can’t try to hide shows you think are going to be low-rated (even assuming you know what’s going to be low-rated). You just try your best schedule and hope people watch. And, unfortunately, people don’t want to watch Last Resort.

    And I say all this as a Last Resort fan.

  • Pinkle

    ABC has a lot of problems.

    First, they need to cancel 666 Park Avenue. I am so sorry for Terry O’Quinn and Vanessa Williams, but they deserve better.

    Scandal can move to Sundays at 10pm. I think the Revenge audience would be more receptive to Scandal than Grey’s audience is. Put Body of Proof there or something else (Red Widow/Zero Hour?) that’s ready to go.

    ABC should have never launched a male skewing drama against The Big Bang Theory and Thursday Night Football. They honestly should have put Last Resort Tuesdays at 10pm, and Private Practice Thursdays at 8pm. However, I don’t think it would make much of a difference now, though.

  • stefan

    My mid-season guesses.
    Sunday:
    8: Once upon a time
    9: Revenge
    10: Zero hour

    Monday:
    8: Dancing/Bachelor
    10: Castle

    Tuesday:
    8: How to live with your parents/Dancing
    8:30: Family tools
    9: Happy endings
    9:30: Apartment 23
    10: Red window

    Wednesday:
    8: Middle
    8:30 Neighbors
    9: Modern family
    9:30: Subpurgatory
    10: Nashville

    Thursday:
    8: Mistresses
    9: Grays anatomy
    10: Scandal

    Friday:
    8: Last man standing
    8:30: Malibu Country
    9: Shark Tank
    10: 20/20

  • Brianna

    I see PP ending after 13 episodes. Most fans know it is the end b/c Kate Walsh only signed on for 13 episodes this season.

    Shonda Rhimes asked for 13 episodes of Scandal and with its serialized storytelling the ratings are decent. Scandal is being written like a cable drama and could very well continue for multiple mini-seasons.

  • Nick

    @Dan

    They wouldnt move Last Resort to Tuesdays, especially when ABC already has 2 more comedies scheduled for then.

    …which will fail so terribly. Those comedies are going to blow up in ABC’s face, and will also hurt Private Practice. ABC will need something to fill two hours in midseason—fast. I suppose a Body of Proof/Red Widow block could work, but it doesn’t have much potential.

    The difference between Park and Last Resort is on how much Grey’s rises from Resort which shows that no one is watching

    Since Grey’s Anatomy this season has a 4.0 average, it would rise from every drama on network television. The fact that it’s rising from LR means nothing. It’s like saying Modern Family rose from The Middle.

    for some reason I think 666 has a better shot to get more eps then Last Resort.

    What reason? Lower ratings in a better timeslot?

    There is no chance that 666 gets additional episodes and Last Resort doesn’t.

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