ABC: 'Last Resort' & '666 Park Avenue' Are Certain To Be Canceled, But When Will It Happen?

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 16th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice :cry: :cry: canceled 10/19 0.63
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.66
Last Resort :oops: 0.71
Scandal :| :| :| 0.76
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.77
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.88
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.93
Nashville :) :) :) :) 1.04
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.89

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10/19 Update: Private Practice has been canceled.
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Last week, I changed my prediction for 666 Park Avenue to "certain to be canceled" this week I'm changing Last Resort. The Cancellation Bear is certain he'll be feasting on both shows by the end of the season.

While both shows are certain to be canceled, folks often wonder about how long they'll last on the schedule. Guessing that timing is a lot harder for the cancellation bear than just the final outcome, but I'll give it a try.

History:

  • Last season, Charlie’s Angels lasted 7 episodes going 2.1, 1.5, 1.2, 1.3, 1.3, 1.2, 1.1 [yank] in Last Resort's timeslot.
  • Two seasons ago My Generation went 1.6, 1.1 [yank] in that slot.
  • Pan Am lasted 14 episodes on Sunday at 10pm last season, going 3.1, 2.6, 1.9, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 1.7, 1.8, 1.5, 1.3, 1.2, 1.2, 0.7, 1.2 [yank]
Present:

Both of this seasons doomed dramas are doing better than Charlie's Angels, but worse than Pan Am. On that basis, I'd expect somewhere between 7 and 13 episodes each. An extra episode or two ordered for scheduling purposes (like Pan Am received) would not surprise me. Although certainly any extra episodes will give hope to the crazy and desperate, just like Pan Am did last season, some of whom still aren't sure it was canceled. Did I mention that it did great internationally?

Why is Castle likely to be renewed, with almost exactly the same ratings as Scandal which is only a "toss up"? While Castle is already sold into syndication, and will by the end of this season have more than the required minimum number of episodes for stripped syndication, my conventional wisdom is that more episodes are always better (for the bottom line). Scandal doesn't benefit from that assumption since it's only a sophomore.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • RS

    I hope for the fans that Last Resort gets its 13 episodes and ends well (like a mini-series should). I didn’t watch it due to the casting of the actress recently from Being Human. Scary person. I’ve watched horror movies my whole life and worked with real burn unit patients, but I’ve never seen anything like that woman’s face. Death’s Head on botox. Nooo facial expressions. Scary.

  • Justin121

    ABC has so many hours to fill:

    Tuesday 9-11

    Thursday 8 and 10

    Sunday 10

    Not to mention DWTS and The Neighbors.

    Scandal seems like a typical cancelled-after-2-seasons show, unless the Shonda-Veto is used, and they keep wasting the Grey’s lead in to prop up her dud shows while have so many troubled slots all over tha schedule (see Private Practice 2008-2012).

    A perminant fixture for Thurs 8 and Sun 10 is moving a veteran.

    Tues 9 needs an older-skwing hit like Revenge or Nashville.

  • Justin121

    You know, Revenge encore Sunday at 10 is not a bad idea.

    It could help it.

  • Ultima

    @Justin
    You know, Revenge encore Sunday at 10 is not a bad idea. It could help it.

    Replaying the same episode over again? Or putting an older episode of a serial on immediately after the current episode?

    How is that supposed to either help Revenge or actually get any ratings?

    Tues 9 needs an older-skwing hit like Revenge or Nashville.

    Total viewers don’t matter.

  • a p garcia

    If ABC cancels LR, it would not surprise me if NBC or CBS also pass it up.

  • Jon

    How does online viewing and piracy play into any of this? I know that I watch a lot of these shows that get canceled, but just not when they are broadcast. Arent the ratings misleading then? A show gets far more views than just when its broadcast.

    Obviously I guess its ads that are the issue.

  • Lulla

    I feel really bad for ABC. They probably had the two best news dramas of the season (apart from what’s next in January): “Last Resort” and “Nashville”, and “666 Park Avenue” was not bad at all either. What happened ? Maybe they screwed their programming. “Last Resort” was far from perfect for this timeslot and Nashville should have been paired on Tuesdays with the older-skewing “DWTS”, possibly with “Last Man Standing” and “Malibu Country”. Since “The Voice” and NBC & FOX comedies was already targeting the younger demo…

  • Patrick Gillease

    @ Lynn…I agree with you. “666” is utter crap and should be pulled from the schedule immediately to make room for something worthy. “Last Resort” had and continues to have some great action and drama with the potential to be a hit had ABC not scheduled it poorly. Thursdays nights are admittedly ABC’s biggest female-driven audience since it’s soap opera night for them. Trying to put a male-skewing show on first at 8 is non-sensical, particularly with such male-centric competiton on CBS. “Last Resort” should have been put on Wednesdays at 10pm on “LOST’s” old air night. The violent content of “Last Resort” would work better there. Last week’s execution of a sailor, even off-camera, was pretty gruesome for an 8pm “family hour” show!

    @ Bill Gorman….Fan Excuse Bingo can be applied only to a point. Just because you label a comment FEB, doesn’t make it untrue. ABC still doesn’t understand how to handle its core problem. Their audience is mostly female, yet they keep trying to attract males by creating male-skewing dramas, only to see them all fail and get canceled, a la “V”, “Flash Forward,” “Charlie’s Angels,” and soon “Last Resort.” They keep trying to repeat their “LOST” success without realizing WHY that show succeeded! Yes, it was largely a male-skewing sci-fi show on its surface, but the multiple romances among the characters and the flash-back storytelling gave it a serialized soap opera pedigree, which brought in the ladies. If they don’t learn to combine their audiences, male-targeting alone at ABC will just keep failing. This isn’t Fan Excuse Bingo. It’s rational analysis!! ;)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @Patrick Gillease, many Fan Excuse Bingo excuses aren’t “wrong” in that they aren’t factually incorrect, they simply are *irrelevant* to the future of individual shows.

    It’s like making the excuse that Lost Resort is doing poorly because it has 10 letters in the show name. Factually correct as far as you can prove, and yet, irrelevant.

  • Riff Rafferty

    666 is garbage but Last Resort is amazing I will enjoy while it last. Hopefully ABC has now learned there lesson about the Thursday death slot. If you want to succeed in that slot put a female drama there or least something compatible with Grey’s, becuase no male orientated drama no matter how fantastic is, is going to succeed in that slot opposite football and Chuck Lorre’s overrated comedies.

    But, but, but, it’s also an EPIC LOVE STORY!

  • Riff Rafferty

    How does…piracy play into any of this? I know that I watch a lot of these shows that get canceled, but just not when they are broadcast. Arent the ratings misleading then? A show gets far more views than just when its broadcast. Obviously I guess its ads that are the issue.

    You know, it’s the darndest thing. Advertisers, they don’t seem to think they get a very good Return On Investment when you illegally torrent the show with the commercials stripped out. I know, right? I’m as shocked as you are!

  • Dan

    @TJW – The only reason Revolution is succeeding is because of The Voice and because competition of Hawaii 5-0 and Castle are down. All those other shows that failed there was because CSI Miami was there and Castle was higher because of higher DWTS. Studio 60 was a good show, but NBC had a crap lineup. Because DWTS used to be a powerhouse as was CBS’s monday lineup, NBC had no chance.

    @Nick – The comedies will likely fail but I doubt they will even air there. Its likely one of them will air after The Neighbors ends and the other will be put somewhere else. When Cougar Town and Apartment 23 were scheduled for that 9:00 slot it was replaced with The River, my guess is a drama may air at 8 on Tuesday or something but definitely not Last Resort. And Pan AM had similar terrible ratings after DH but it was given 1 more episode while Charlie’s Angels was axed. The difference between The Middle’s rise to Modern Family is that MF and Grey’s have similar high numbers in the 4.0s, while The Middle gets 2.5-2.8 and Last Resort gets 1.5s. The difference in how much it rises is significant. You could be right that 666 will be axed first but my final guess is that if anything both will air all 13 episodes.

    @Bill – I think realistically Private Practice should be 1 :( rather than 2. A lot of factors are pointing to this being the final season

    1) Low ratings even in its new timeslot, with BOP likely waiting in the wings.
    2) Kate Walsh is leaving after 13 episodes
    3) The new season is capped at 13 eps with no additional episodes ordered.

  • Sandy L

    Last Resort is a fabulous show! I just don’t understand why every show my family likes gets cancelled (except Castle).

  • Regina Mills

    I’m actually enjoying 666 and of course Once Upon A Time is a keeper!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “@Bill – I think realistically Private Practice should be 1 rather than 2. A lot of factors are pointing to this being the final season

    1) Low ratings even in its new timeslot, with BOP likely waiting in the wings.
    2) Kate Walsh is leaving after 13 episodes
    3) The new season is capped at 13 eps with no additional episodes ordered.”

    You’re probably right, I have an admitted reluctance to put a 4+ year show, no matter what the situation, into the “certain to be canceled” category.

  • Fake Me Out

    IMHO

    666 is not a bad show, I’m enjoying it so far and just hope they get to wrap things up nice and neat before the axe falls … which kinda would be an actual nice neat wrap on screen for this show … everyone is killed by an axe murderer! Not that it matters or means anything, but to me, this show has the ‘feel’ of a mini-series … an interesting idea but one that probably would get old fast and/or turn to soapy if it was much longer than 13 chapters … get in, tell the story, get out.

    When this goes, the only thing left on ABC I’ll be watching is Castle … provided they don’t screw it up major league like last years snore fest.

    ymmv

    #RIPAmanda

  • Brian

    To answer the question:

    Park Avenue gone in time for November sweeps.
    Last Resort gone by February.

  • JD

    Fans don’t care if “wrong time slot” etc. is relevant to renewals. It’s still relevant to the numbers we see. Does anyone actually do Fan Excuse Bingo, though? If yes, have you ever had thoughts of self-harm and crushing loneliness?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Fans don’t care if “wrong time slot” etc. is relevant to renewals. It’s still relevant to the numbers we see. “

    If not for renewal or cancellation, why should fans care what the ratings for an individual show are?

    Other than cases of simple academic interest (unlikely to be Fan Excuse Bingo players), or just flat out crazy (our best FEB players!), I mean.

  • svpike

    Last Resort was great the 1st episode but has gone down, (it would be better as a miniseries) 666 is really good and I hope it can bounce back.

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