ABC: 'Last Resort' & '666 Park Avenue' Are Certain To Be Canceled, But When Will It Happen?

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 16th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice :cry: :cry: canceled 10/19 0.63
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.66
Last Resort :oops: 0.71
Scandal :| :| :| 0.76
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.77
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.88
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.93
Nashville :) :) :) :) 1.04
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.89

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10/19 Update: Private Practice has been canceled.
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Last week, I changed my prediction for 666 Park Avenue to "certain to be canceled" this week I'm changing Last Resort. The Cancellation Bear is certain he'll be feasting on both shows by the end of the season.

While both shows are certain to be canceled, folks often wonder about how long they'll last on the schedule. Guessing that timing is a lot harder for the cancellation bear than just the final outcome, but I'll give it a try.

History:

  • Last season, Charlie’s Angels lasted 7 episodes going 2.1, 1.5, 1.2, 1.3, 1.3, 1.2, 1.1 [yank] in Last Resort's timeslot.
  • Two seasons ago My Generation went 1.6, 1.1 [yank] in that slot.
  • Pan Am lasted 14 episodes on Sunday at 10pm last season, going 3.1, 2.6, 1.9, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 1.7, 1.8, 1.5, 1.3, 1.2, 1.2, 0.7, 1.2 [yank]
Present:

Both of this seasons doomed dramas are doing better than Charlie's Angels, but worse than Pan Am. On that basis, I'd expect somewhere between 7 and 13 episodes each. An extra episode or two ordered for scheduling purposes (like Pan Am received) would not surprise me. Although certainly any extra episodes will give hope to the crazy and desperate, just like Pan Am did last season, some of whom still aren't sure it was canceled. Did I mention that it did great internationally?

Why is Castle likely to be renewed, with almost exactly the same ratings as Scandal which is only a "toss up"? While Castle is already sold into syndication, and will by the end of this season have more than the required minimum number of episodes for stripped syndication, my conventional wisdom is that more episodes are always better (for the bottom line). Scandal doesn't benefit from that assumption since it's only a sophomore.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Dan

    I just dont understand why ABC wuldnt announce PP is ending. They gave a final season to veterans Boston Legal, Lost, Desperate Housewives and even Ugly Betty midway through its 4th season. They tried to give B&S a final season bit no 6th season deal could be worked out, but Private Practice got that deal. I expect bu early November ABC will announce its ending and hopefully a proper finale can be written

  • I disconcur

    Am I the only one who thinks Last Resort’s terrible timeslot will save its life? I mean ABC isn’t going to do any better on 8 PM Thursday with something else, and the show is beating 666 Park with that show being in a much better timeslot, which must help dampen ABC’s expectations somewhat. Not to mention it’s also not too far below the ratings of Castle and Scandal. Well, who knows if all this will help the show secure a renewal, but I’ll bet you it gets it picked up for a full season.

    Might trim the cast a bit to try and keep costs down too.

  • Hugh

    Hope Last Resort picks up a bit and gets a full season.

  • amazing person

    Booooo I really like last resort!!! :( ……I? Ill still kelp on watching like I did no ordinary family though.!

  • Justifried

    The problem with ABC and Last Resort is that most tech-savvy audiences know that serial drama shows will be canceled and won’t be given a fair shot. FlashForward, The Event, etc. all required emotional investments that audiences aren’t willing to do anymore in this climate of cancellations.

    Serial Dramas as best to watched in one binge sitting on Netflix. Last Resort looks up my ally but I know it will be canceled; don’t want to be left hanging so I won’t watch it.

  • Nathan

    LR I thought was good…
    Guess I’ll survive with Castle and OUAT until SHIELD

  • scott whaley

    Last resort 666 park avenue and Nashville are three of my favorite new shows. Now abc wants to cancel these shows. That’s just crazy. Need to give them a chance. Don’t know what people are talking about. That’s why shows now a days don’t last because people want to judge and put shows down that don’t appeal to them. They may not to some but to a lot of others they do. I hope that these shows are on for the long haul and will last for some time to come.

  • Cristi M.

    666 and Last Resort cancelled unfortunatelly but i can understand how The Neighbours have better ratings.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “The problem with ABC and Last Resort is that most tech-savvy audiences know that serial drama shows will be canceled and won’t be given a fair shot.”

    And yet Lost lasted six seasons, Grey’s Anatomy has lasted nine. Desperate Housewives lasted eight.

    “FlashForward, The Event, etc. all required emotional investments that audiences aren’t willing to do anymore in this climate of cancellations.”

    Both those shows started with pretty good ratings vs. other rookie shows of their season, people seemed more than willing to make the “emotional investments” until they actually watched a few episodes and then they cashed out their investments.

    As for “this climate of cancellations”, when did you start watching TV, yesterday? Every year, shows get canceled, and the number of shows that have been canceled hasn’t varied too dramatically in recent memory.

    Here’s an alternate explanation, that’s at least logically consistent.

    Lost was a show people wanted to watch, and they did, for a long time. Although ratings trended down over the years, they started very high, and only trended down slowly. The Event and FlashForward were shows people wanted to watch initially, until they watched them for a short while, and then they decided otherwise and their ratings fell sharply. Not many people even wanted to *start* watching Last Resort.

  • bsp

    Given the choice of the premieres of Chicago Fire or Nashville last week, I chose CF. Hated it. Watched Nashville last night and was surprised how much I liked it. One reason was the music (I’m a musician), performed by musician-actors actually playing their instruments. What a concept!! And the music was really good. I’ll be back…

  • Patrick Gillease

    @ Justifried…The problem with ABC and Last Resort is that most tech-savvy audiences know that serial drama shows will be canceled and won’t be given a fair shot. FlashForward, The Event, etc. all required emotional investments that audiences aren’t willing to do anymore in this climate of cancellations.</i?

    WOW, multiple Fan Excuse Bingo answers in once post. This fills up my card a lot. Thanks man! Yet, how do you explain the current success of "Revolution" on NBC and "Once Upon a Time" last year on ABC? Both fit your descriptions as to what types of shows they are, and yet both have succeeded. You can't make such generalized comments because they aren't true.

    "Flash Forward," "The Event" and even "V" and "Ordinary Family" before them had interesting premises at their onsets, but then the shows went off into ridiculous plot directions or downright boring storytelling that lost viewers interest, and ratings dove as a result.

    Here's a counter-example: I wasn't going to watch "Revolution" at all because of its concept, which has failed in the past (FF, "Jericho", etc.) but curiosity got the best of me, so I tuned in. The pilot was actually rather weak. The show got into the blackout premise much too quickly without building it up; that should have occurred in the last few minutes of the pilot instead of the first few. Yet, I was intrigued enough to tune in the next week. Since then, the show has just gotten better and better from a storytelling perspective. This week had me on the edge of my seat, especially for the last 15 minutes. Throw in complex, intriguing characters that the audience actually cares about (I was very upset that Maggie was killed last week), and you have the recipe for long-running success. Will this continue as the series progresses? That remains to be seen. But, so far, the show-runners of "Revolution" are doing a great job, and NBC rewarded them with a justified full-season pick-up.

    Now, if the shows you mention, and the ones I added, had these ingredients, they might still be on the air. Sadly, they didn't, so they're gone. A show's survival is a very complex set of circumstances, which is why more of them fail every year than succeed!! It's not as simple as making trite statements and Fan Excuse Bingo slots!! ;)

  • Patrick Gillease

    Bill and Robert. Is there ANY way the edit button can be brought back? PLEASE! I could have fixed my missed HTML mistake if we still had this feature!

  • Honey Badger

    Wow, Nashville is a flop. What does ABC do now?
    Just as I predicted, this show does not appeal to a mass audience
    In week 2 ABC Nashville 2.0. What a drop from a 2.8 in week 1. And I called it.

    Tvbythenumbers.com is a really FUN site!

    @ Robert Seidman you said “@Honey Badger: if by bold you mean “nonsensical-crazy-I-don’t-have-any-idea-what-I’m-talking-about-but-comment-multiple-dozens-of-times-a-week-acting-like-I-do-anyway”…then yes.”
    Thank you for the Compliment
    Well look how one of my bold and daring predictions is turning out. Yes I am “Crazy” like a fox. While I cannot compete with the The Cancellation Bear or tvbythenumbers.com predictions, I do have a lot of FUN on my Bold and Daring predictions.

    Honey Badger
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 10:31 AM
    @ CrimTV @r0ckmypants Here is an earlier posting with my reasons for the Bold and Daring Prediction – a huge drop in Nashville ratings on ABC, check back in a few weeks and I will be proved to be correct. (how is that for a bold and daring prediction?)
    @ adanskiiiii “I expected Nashville to premiere to a 3.5 considering it had Modern Family as a lead in.”
    I agree, I am shocked Nashville only pulled a 2.8 adults 18-49 rating. Especially after ABC used an hour of Modern Family as a lead in, (one of the highest rated shows on television), and heavy promotion.
    ” btw Nashville half hours were 3.0 and 2.5.” What a huge drop. Shows that a lot of people that tuned in due to the Modern Family as the lead in, and did not like Nashville. ABC is in trouble with this show already. Next week Nashville the lead in will be Suburgatory, not good.
    @ jt “I don’t have high expectations for Nashville. The premise is it should have been a mini-series. Too ‘country and women oriented’ drama. Doesn’t have a broader appeal.”
    I agree, Nashville seems to be targeted to a very specific demographic. It is a same old formula soap opera (we have seen this type of storyline numerous times), made to attract the older women demographic. Also it is further limited by its attempt to make it appeal to older country music fans. In fact the storylines are straight out of old country music songs: my spouse is cheating, betrayal, my boss is mean, etc… songs: Stand By Your Man, Take This Job And Shove It, etc
    I am predicting Nashville ratings will drop big time and keep dropping all season, not good for ABC.

  • greenmantis

    Of course! What are the ONLY two shows I watch on ABC? 666 Park Avenue and Last Resort.

  • Fred

    I enjoy much of the low rated dramas: 666, Nashville, Last Resort…

    However 666 needs to canceled and replaced by Last Resort. Reason being is that LR timeslot is awful. May actually do OK at 10:00.

    Nashville would have worked better on cable. However it is currently averaging above a 2.0 so it is still safe. But any further erosion and ABC will most likely move it or cancel it.

  • Jeff C

    More people need to watch “The Neighbors”. I’m sure folks are wary due to the premise, but it is really funny and well executed.

  • Just Looking

    @Jeff C

    Don;t worry too much. The Neighbors picking up a full season is just around the corner.

  • jwt

    The Last Resort is a great show while some other shows are garbage hopefully it moves on. I mean I can’t believe people watch reality crap when you have a good show like this on.

  • The Other Tony

    I don’t pay much attention to the “Fan Excuse Bingo” explanations people give, but here’s my take on Last Resort’s failure:

    1.) It’s an action-adventure genre show, highly serialized and male-skewing. It would have most likely fared better at 10pm.

    2.) The Thursday 8pm slot has been traditionally problematic for ABC, with FlashForward, The Deep End, My Generation, Charlie’s Angels, and Missing all failing there ever since Ugly Betty’s ill-conceived move off the Thursday schedule in ’09. What do those shows have in common? 3 of them were action-adventure genre, with FF and Missing (as well as My Generation) simultaneously being serialized. The Deep End may have been able to function as a procedural, but it was more serious in tone as well. Ugly Betty succeeded at such an early time slot because, despite being serialized, UB was lighter fare.

    Therefore…

    3.) Scheduling Last Resort on Thursdays at 8pm, based on ABC’s track record there, was simply a disaster waiting to happen. Despite Last Resort’s quality or lack thereof.

    Obviously, we can’t assume that Last Resort would’ve been a huge hit for ABC if it had been scheduled at 10pm on either Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday. But it would have definitely had a better shot in any of those slots than on Thursdays at 8pm.

    That’s not “Fan Excuse Bingo”…that’s just reality (in terms of ABC’s current programming slate).

  • Justin121

    ABC’s Comedy Wednesday isn’t nearly stron enough to launch new hits.

    Not a single show gets a 3.0 rating or higher other than Mod Fam.

    They need to fix that before anything else.

    I really think last year was a wasted opportunity with Sub vs. Happy Endings, but since what happened, happened, they should’ve stuck to Middle-Sub-ModFam line up followed up by a new (worthy) comedy.

    The best they can do is a Middle-Sub-ModFam-new comedy for years to come to nurture this block, before pulling a Neighbors / move all their sitoms around kind of stint(s) like they did this year.

    The whole let’s-try-everything-out-of-Modern-Family approach isn’t working.

    If they must, they should air one Middle episode out of Mod Fam to encourage the audience to stick for the whole block.

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