ABC: 'Last Resort' & '666 Park Avenue' Are Certain To Be Canceled, But When Will It Happen?

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 16th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice :cry: :cry: canceled 10/19 0.63
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.66
Last Resort :oops: 0.71
Scandal :| :| :| 0.76
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.77
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.88
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.93
Nashville :) :) :) :) 1.04
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.89

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10/19 Update: Private Practice has been canceled.
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Last week, I changed my prediction for 666 Park Avenue to "certain to be canceled" this week I'm changing Last Resort. The Cancellation Bear is certain he'll be feasting on both shows by the end of the season.

While both shows are certain to be canceled, folks often wonder about how long they'll last on the schedule. Guessing that timing is a lot harder for the cancellation bear than just the final outcome, but I'll give it a try.

History:

  • Last season, Charlie’s Angels lasted 7 episodes going 2.1, 1.5, 1.2, 1.3, 1.3, 1.2, 1.1 [yank] in Last Resort's timeslot.
  • Two seasons ago My Generation went 1.6, 1.1 [yank] in that slot.
  • Pan Am lasted 14 episodes on Sunday at 10pm last season, going 3.1, 2.6, 1.9, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 1.7, 1.8, 1.5, 1.3, 1.2, 1.2, 0.7, 1.2 [yank]
Present:

Both of this seasons doomed dramas are doing better than Charlie's Angels, but worse than Pan Am. On that basis, I'd expect somewhere between 7 and 13 episodes each. An extra episode or two ordered for scheduling purposes (like Pan Am received) would not surprise me. Although certainly any extra episodes will give hope to the crazy and desperate, just like Pan Am did last season, some of whom still aren't sure it was canceled. Did I mention that it did great internationally?

Why is Castle likely to be renewed, with almost exactly the same ratings as Scandal which is only a "toss up"? While Castle is already sold into syndication, and will by the end of this season have more than the required minimum number of episodes for stripped syndication, my conventional wisdom is that more episodes are always better (for the bottom line). Scandal doesn't benefit from that assumption since it's only a sophomore.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Justin121

    Post-Modern Family:

    – Season 2 of Cougar Town

    – Spring season of Mr. Sunshine

    – Season 2 of Happy Endings

    – Spring season of Apt. 23

    – Season 2 of Suburgatory

    Anyone notice something wrong?

    That’s right, ABC either slots a) a sophomore comedy or b) a mid-season replacment post-Modern Family.

    This was the first time they were going to launch a brand-new comedy post-MF in the Fall, then they chickened out and only aired one episode of it, and opted to option b) for a third time.

    Will ABC learn?

  • Just Looking

    @Justin121

    I don;t get it. Don;t you mean option ”’a) a sophomore comedy not b)”’?

    Anyway, I think next Spring would probably be the time when the schedule bucks the trend when a sophomore comedy airs instead of a mid-season replacement. Suburgatory isn;t going anywhere and with the current ratings for other shows this season, it is most likely destined for renewal. Then next Fall a show in its third season airs after Modern Family.

    The move to place The Neighbors after The Middle wasn;t a bad one. ABC didn;t want to air two new shows back-to-back and to me, the current schedule is a better risk.

  • Ray

    “….just like Pan Am did last season, some of whom still aren’t sure it was canceled. Did I mention that it did great internationally?”

    Nice.

  • DyDy

    Last Resort is one of the best new shows and it has quickly, become my favorite new show. It is getting better as it goes. I don’t think it should be canceled.

  • susan

    I love Last Resort for the idea that there are still people who would stand ground on their convictions. And 666 is just plain good fun..creepy,scary,mysterious.Beats American Gothic hands down and that stupid show was brought back.

  • Stelios

    SCANDAL is a great show, but it just isn’t being promoted. I started watching it two episodes ago by accident, while flipping channels, and now I’m hooked. Had never heard of it before then.

  • Tad

    Hoping 666 can survive and Nashville isn’t to bad.

  • Babs

    Not fast there Bear .. Last Resort is improving weekly !

  • JOey

    Yeah, Last Resort got an uptick this week, i think if it stays above 1.5 it will get a full season order

  • fearless

    Private Practice officially cancelled! xD

  • Cindy

    LAST RESORT’s problem, in a nutshell is that it is on the wrong network. ABC, in recent years, has become known for its female oriented programming (i.e. soaps and shows featuring female leads). Even DANCING WITH THE STARS skews female. (For reasons that escape me, reality dance shows tend to skew female while reality singing shows tend to attract both sexes, any theories are welcomed.) The last hit on ABC that was not female oriented was LOST.This show is comparable to DETROIT 187 that ran on the same network a couple seasons ago. It was a quality show that could attract men as well as women, but it got lost in the shuffle because it was on the wrong network. It would do better on CBS or NBC because thier programming is not (as) female oriented. CBS is known for its procedurals and only THE GOOD WIFE is female oriented. NBC doesn’t have any female oriented programming, but I am not familiar with thier programs outside of GRIMM. Iam not counting FOX and the CW because they have largely teen oriented programming and have not been able to break that image. Bottom line: Good show, wrong network.

  • Cindy

    As to 666 PARK AVENUE, I hope it is given a chance; it is good. It would also (seem to) fit better with thier programming as it has a prominent female lead that is not present on LAST RESORT.

  • Chuck Finley (AJ)

    This article is certain to be wrong as it has been so may times in the past.

  • Chuck Finley (AJ)

    So wrong that they may add a new excuse to their Why It wasn’t Cancelled Even Though We Swore it Would Be Excuse Bingo card. We already have:

    Syndication
    The Network got a good deal
    Another network saved it
    They picked it up to be in the good graces of (insert name) writer
    etc…

  • Cindy

    The way shows stay around are 1) if they have wide appeal or 2) if they have a dedicated niche audience.

  • Just Looking

    For all the Last Resort fans out their, don;t get your hopes up. It is still getting lower ratings than The Neighbors and you know what they said about that show… Anyway, last year people thought the same about Pan Am and look where that took them…

  • eridapo

    Renew/ Cancel Index if we went by A25-54 Metric (ABC average rating 3.278)

    Show / CI

    666 Park Avenue 0.847
    Private Practice 0.859
    Last Resort 0.933
    Scandal 0.988
    The Neighbors 1.097
    Castle 1.097
    Nashville 1.135
    The Middle 1.222
    Revenge 1.27
    Suburgatory 1.308
    Once Upon A Time 1.475
    Grey’s Anatomy 1.783
    Modern Family 2.271

  • Just words no action

    I see so much potential for 666 park avenue. It reminds me of the Stephen King show they had on a few years ago I just think they need to tweak the pace of the show. They can also put it between OUAT and Revenge or possibly before OUAT…Never watch LR but by the previews it seems boring.

    *Side note: I hope that they recast Hayden in Nashville. Her southern accent is annoying and a bit insulting.*

  • Mumbo

    In recent years networks have been more inclined to run out initial episode orders even if a show is tanking. When a show gets yanked off the air is hard to tell, it has to be an epic-sized bomb for that to happen. I think both 666 and Last Resort aren’t quite there yet and will stay on for all 13 episodes, then get yanked after that.

  • Mark

    I think Last Resort will get the full 13. Scandal will be canned by May.

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