Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Private Practice||canceled 10/19||0.63|
|666 Park Avenue||0.66|
|Once Upon A Time||1.28|
10/19 Update: Private Practice has been canceled.
Last week, I changed my prediction for 666 Park Avenue to "certain to be canceled" this week I'm changing Last Resort. The cancellation bear is certain he'll be feasting on both shows by the end of the season.
While both shows are certain to be canceled, folks often wonder about how long they'll last on the schedule. Guessing that timing is a lot harder for the cancellation bear than just the final outcome, but I'll give it a try.
- Last season, Charlie’s Angels lasted 7 episodes going 2.1, 1.5, 1.2, 1.3, 1.3, 1.2, 1.1 [yank] in Last Resort's timeslot.
- Two seasons ago My Generation went 1.6, 1.1 [yank] in that slot.
- Pan Am lasted 14 episodes on Sunday at 10pm last season, going 3.1, 2.6, 1.9, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 1.7, 1.8, 1.5, 1.3, 1.2, 1.2, 0.7, 1.2 [yank]
- 666 Park Avenue has gone 2.1, 1.7, 1.5.
- Last Resort has gone 2.2, 1.9, 1.6.
Both of this seasons doomed dramas are doing better than Charlie's Angels, but worse than Pan Am. On that basis, I'd expect somewhere between 7 and 13 episodes each. An extra episode or two ordered for scheduling purposes (like Pan Am received) would not surprise me. Although certainly any extra episodes will give hope to the crazy and desperate, just like Pan Am did last season, some of whom still aren't sure it was canceled. Did I mention that it did great internationally?
Why is Castle likely to be renewed, with almost exactly the same ratings as Scandal which is only a "toss up"? While Castle is already sold into syndication, and will by the end of this season have more than the required minimum number of episodes for stripped syndication, my conventional wisdom is that more episodes are always better (for the bottom line). Scandal doesn't benefit from that assumption since it's only a sophomore.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.