ABC: 'Last Resort' & '666 Park Avenue' Are Certain To Be Canceled, But When Will It Happen?

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 16th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice :cry: :cry: canceled 10/19 0.63
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.66
Last Resort :oops: 0.71
Scandal :| :| :| 0.76
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.77
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.88
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.93
Nashville :) :) :) :) 1.04
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.89

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10/19 Update: Private Practice has been canceled.
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Last week, I changed my prediction for 666 Park Avenue to "certain to be canceled" this week I'm changing Last Resort. The Cancellation Bear is certain he'll be feasting on both shows by the end of the season.

While both shows are certain to be canceled, folks often wonder about how long they'll last on the schedule. Guessing that timing is a lot harder for the cancellation bear than just the final outcome, but I'll give it a try.

History:

  • Last season, Charlie’s Angels lasted 7 episodes going 2.1, 1.5, 1.2, 1.3, 1.3, 1.2, 1.1 [yank] in Last Resort's timeslot.
  • Two seasons ago My Generation went 1.6, 1.1 [yank] in that slot.
  • Pan Am lasted 14 episodes on Sunday at 10pm last season, going 3.1, 2.6, 1.9, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 1.7, 1.8, 1.5, 1.3, 1.2, 1.2, 0.7, 1.2 [yank]
Present:

Both of this seasons doomed dramas are doing better than Charlie's Angels, but worse than Pan Am. On that basis, I'd expect somewhere between 7 and 13 episodes each. An extra episode or two ordered for scheduling purposes (like Pan Am received) would not surprise me. Although certainly any extra episodes will give hope to the crazy and desperate, just like Pan Am did last season, some of whom still aren't sure it was canceled. Did I mention that it did great internationally?

Why is Castle likely to be renewed, with almost exactly the same ratings as Scandal which is only a "toss up"? While Castle is already sold into syndication, and will by the end of this season have more than the required minimum number of episodes for stripped syndication, my conventional wisdom is that more episodes are always better (for the bottom line). Scandal doesn't benefit from that assumption since it's only a sophomore.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • eridapo

    Ignore previous post (used 18-49 denominator instead of 3.278)

    Show CI
    666 Park Avenue 0.67
    Private Practice 0.68
    Last Resort 0.74
    Scandal 0.78
    The Neighbors 0.87
    Castle 0.87
    Nashville 0.90
    The Middle 0.97
    Revenge 1.01
    Suburgatory 1.04
    Once Upon A Time 1.17
    Grey’s Anatomy 1.41
    Modern Family 1.80

  • rocco

    last resort is very entertaining a better time slot maybe at least end it with a good finish

  • imagineman

    Why does TBBT get so much hate? I watch both LR and TBBT. I wonder if the problem is that stupid people watch it, don’t understand some of the jokes, and declare it stupid. It reminds me of Futurama before it was turned into The Simpsons 2 by CC.

    No, I don’t watch Two and Half Men.

  • Apgraham

    What happened to Sunday night ABC? I’ve watched it for 10 years and suddenly hate it this season. I would watch pan am and gcb way more than I would the devil crap. Who puts weird shows like that on Sunday anyway? I liked private practice as a spin off of grey’s but it doesn’t fit in on Tuesday night. Especially with the voice on. Just my two cents. I want to like revenge, but can’t get into it. Hope something new comes on soon. :)

  • Bob Saget

    I’ll admit Last Resort looks awesome but my DVR only has 2 tuners so I’m going to watch the shows I’ve been watching for years instead of trying out something new that may be cancelled. Sorry ABC, but maybe you should change the time slot.

  • Eugenius

    you know what, it’s a big difference between “canceled” and “final season” change it, have some respect for the fans of Private Practice.

  • Temis

    Comparing Last Resort to Lost is unfair because comparing anything to Lost is unfair. It’s obvious that the networks dont know how to replicate Lost because they keep trying and failing. Honestly, nobody knows why Lost was a hit.

    It’s easier to say why shows flop. Just ascribing to to quality is wrong since good shows flop and bad shows survive all the time. Awareness of new TV shows is tanking because new shows are primarily marketed to viewers of the same network, so when viewers leave the network, a vicious cycle kicks in. They never find out about new network shows or never see enough to be convinced to sample them.

  • Temis

    “Here’s an alternate explanation, that’s at least logically consistent.

    Lost was a show people wanted to watch, and they did, for a long time. Although ratings trended down over the years, they started very high, and only trended down slowly. The Event and FlashForward were shows people wanted to watch initially, until they watched them for a short while, and then they decided otherwise and their ratings fell sharply. Not many people even wanted to *start* watching Last Resort.”

    That’s not an explanation of anything, it’s merely a description of what happened. Yes, we all know that viewers watch shows because they want to. Nobody is standing behind them with a gun to their head.

    The question is: WHY do they want to watch one show or another? Presumably it’s not just random chance, where viewers roll a dice and decide, “okay I’ll watch whatever is in CBS at 10pm on Wed.”

    In all the Fan Excuse discussions, I’ve rarely seen talk about the impact that marketing has on awareness of new shows. As viewers stop watching current network shows, their awareness of new network shows also drops, because they are no longer seeing the new season show ads on that network.

    In that milieu, getting word of mouth outside the TV realm going is crucial. And that’s just what NBC did with Revolution, which got something like 6 million views on YouTube last summer very quickly. I was waiting for ABC to do somethng similar to promote Last Resort, but they never did. Bad move.

  • Chris

    Come on people. Last Resort is better than 90% of the shows out there.

  • imagineman

    I agree with Temis. I download everything, so I don’t see any ads at all. The only reason I found out about LR was from a commercial in a theater. Had I not seen that commercial, I never would’ve began watching.

  • Kevin

    um, I think/hope 666 is going to stay, so far in the season, every episode is improving. Unlike once upon a time, whose episode 4 was a MAJOR let down for me. People need to give 666 a chance.

  • Kirby Palm

    I dunno why ANY show gets cancelled when the network doesn’t have anything better to replace it with!

  • Kirby Palm

    I agree about the DVR use; in fact, I have two DVR’s, one with two tuners and the other with one, so I can record three shows at once. Very rare I watch a commercial. D’ya suppose we shouldn’t be telling the networks that?

    Anyhow, I also agree that Last Resort is a good program, better than much of the other new garbage. Not sure why it didn’t get more viewership right out of the box, but it’s going to be difficult to catch up at this point. Perhaps they should go to a lengthy and detailed “previously on Last Resort…” at the beginning of each episode.

  • eridapo

    Projected Renew Index (if Sunday Prelim hold)

    Private Practice 0.65
    666 Park Avenue 0.68
    Last Resort 0.71
    Scandal 0.78
    Castle 0.79
    The Neighbors 0.87
    Nashville 0.92
    The Middle 0.96
    Suburgatory 1.08
    Revenge 1.09
    Once Upon A Time 1.31
    Grey’s Anatomy 1.48
    Modern Family 1.90

  • Jimmy

    I hope they at least give us few 666 Park Avenue fans some closure by solving the overall mystery in the last couple of episodes. It would be awful to watch all this time and have no closure at all.

    On another note, I’m thrilled to see Once Upon A Time doing so well. That’s the best show on TV, in my opinion.

  • eridapo

    Renew CI with Sunday finals

    Private Practice 0.65
    666 Park Avenue 0.67
    Last Resort 0.71
    Scandal 0.78
    Castle 0.79
    The Neighbors 0.87
    Nashville 0.92
    The Middle 0.96
    Suburgatory 1.08
    Revenge 1.09
    Once Upon A Time 1.31
    Grey’s Anatomy 1.48
    Modern Family 1.90

  • margaret paszek

    Finally. A program I can look forward to watching each week. Not since Grey’s Anatomy have I been this excited about a new show. 666 Park Avenue needs to be given a chance. I’ve been around long enough to see great shows struggle in season one yet somehow make it to become major hits. This production has the capability to do just that.

  • Shawn

    Last Resort is one of the best TV dramas since LOST. Really hope it doesn’t get cancelled.

  • Cameron

    Last Resort is my favorite new show! It is a victim of it’s time slot.

  • CGoin

    I hope they give Last Resort a final 2-3 episodes to finish the show. I HATE when scripted serial shows like this and The Event, etc.. die without a conclusion no matter how rushed. They did it right with Jericho, but it took a lot of effort by fans.

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