CBS: Will 'Vegas' Be Canceled & Un-Canceled Like 'Unforgettable'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 16th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F) canceled 0.36*
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.49
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.66
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.72
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.73
Partners :oops: 0.81
Vegas :| :| :| 0.82
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.97
Elementary :) :) :) :) 1.06
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.82

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The syndication gods that rule over the CBS schedule sometimes cause mere mortals to act in crazy ways. Like last season, when CBS canceled Unforgettable only to "un-cancel" it later for an announced short summer 2013 run. Perhaps the gods decided they were going to run short of fuel for their syndication engine several years from now and wanted to keep their options open. I can't be sure, the gods do not speak to me.

This season, Vegas, the new resident of the Tuesday 10pm timeslot, has ratings that look a lot like Unforgettable's once you factor in that CBS's overall scripted show ratings average is down about 25% vs. last season.

Unforgettable 2.9, 2.5, 2.5

Vegas 2.5, 2.0, 2.0

Last season I had Unforgettable as a "toss up" 3 weeks into the season, and that's where Vegas is today. I think it's unlikely that the Moonves gang pulls a keystone COPS act again and cancels and uncancels a show. Perhaps they're repeating a mantra of "measure twice, cancel once".

Because of the economics of off network syndication, the ratings for both Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods are irrelevant to their renewal prospects this season, both are "certain to be renewed" for a fourth season next year.

While the syndication gods demanded the current fourth season for ratings loser The Good Wife, they are not guaranteed to demand a fifth, so it will likely remain a "toss up" all season long.

Made In Jersey was unsurprisingly the first cancellation of the season.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules of Engagement, sooner rather than later.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • @scl2

    I’m glad about H50 :)

  • Tommy Mickens

    The only thing I disagree about is Elementary. If Unforgettable can be renewed at all last season, then Elementary is certain to be renewed this season, not just likely. I see no way short of a cataclysm that would make Elementary get cancelled, same as any other certain to be renewed show.

  • DW

    this is a tough one because this season outside of nbc on sun , mon, and tues nights , everything is down. but its not like its getting crushed by competition but it is losing to SOA but it is boring and goes nowhere that when it takes its first hiatus it may not come back. as for the good wife can you tell me another show that could kick the crap out of the walking dead and sunday night football?. the mentalist isnt that show and they would be dumb to move either NCIS to that slot.

  • Honey Badger

    The Mentalist
    Partners
    to be cancelled
    Partners cancelled next week

  • Dan

    I don’t think CBS will pull a cancelled then uncancelled with Vegas. If they want to renew it they will and if they want to axe it they will. Elementary will be renewed only because its unlikely CBS cancels every new drama on their schedule (The last time they did that was 2007-2008)
    Partners will be cancelled eventually but I really think they will let this one ride until December. No matter how low the numbers, CBS is probably not willing to acknowledge it until then.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I don’t think CBS will pull a cancelled then uncancelled with Vegas.”

    Me either, as noted, but that allowed me to get Canceled one word away from Vegas in the headline (SEO!) as well as putting Unforgettable in too (crazy fans!).

    The things we internet publishers do. ;)

  • Yarden

    Not a word on The Mentalist?!

  • THE OLD MAN

    I think CBS will analyze Vegas more closely (due to the 25% drop in scripted)

    TGW could easily be moved to Fri next year for another 3-4 years or so of low-rated fare (love those prospects)

    Unforgettable is the wild card here, depending on how many eps are ordered

  • Dan

    @Bill – It may be too early to tell but The lack of well performing dramas this season may save Unforgettable if it does well enough next year. But probably not.

  • EatMorePez

    Which will happen first: CBS pulling the plug on Partners or ABC yanking 666 Park Ave?

  • DW

    the only reason the mentalist would get cancelled would be that it costs too much as it is in its 7th season.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “the only reason the mentalist would get cancelled would be that it costs too much as it is in its 7th season.”

    Its more complicated than that since CBS is weighing several alternatives, and the various numbers are almost entirely hidden from us.

    CBS will be weighing what it can make from more CSINY and/or Good Wife episodes in syndication, how much profit they stand to get from advertising if Warner Brothers lowers their fee for The Mentalist.

    At least one of those three dramas is going to be canceled (two, if Vegas survives), and figuring out which is pretty much a stab in the dark with public information.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “@Bill – It may be too early to tell but The lack of well performing dramas this season may save Unforgettable if it does well enough next year. But probably not.”

    As I noted, on a relative basis, Vegas isn’t doing any worse than Unforgettable did last season. It would be pretty surprising to me (given current Vegas ratings) if CBS chose to ax Vegas and put Unforgettable in the Fall 2013 schedule. Right now that looks like an even trade.

  • Tommy Mickens

    Its more complicated than that since CBS is weighing several alternatives, and the various numbers are almost entirely hidden from us.

    CBS will be weighing what it can make from more CSINY and/or Good Wife episodes in syndication, how much profit they stand to get from advertising if Warner Brothers lowers their fee for The Mentalist.

    At least one of those three dramas is going to be canceled (two, if Vegas survives), and figuring out which is pretty much a stab in the dark with public information.

    Don’t forget it’ll also consider the reaons TGW even made it near syndication numbers, which is the prestige factor. TGW is a rare instance of it mattering, and it’s still CBS’ most prestigious show. Not that that will surely get it another season – they have to end it eventually – but I’m sure that’s going to factor into their conversations.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Not a word on The Mentalist?!”

    Dear crazy The Mentalist fan, I’ve now written 3 of 34 CBS Renew/Cancel Index posts for the season, and pretty much every single other one (except those dealing with mid-season shows) is going to involve The Mentalist, The Good Wife, Vegas and CSI:NY.

    Your level of crazy should be satisfied. If not, contact a responsible mental health professional in your area.

  • Dan S

    I don’t watch The Mentalist never have but I don’t think CBS will can it after this season. It’s doing the job it was sent to do on Sun but the only quibble is it should air at 9pm & TGW at 10pm. Another option mentioned before is for CBS to go will all reality shows on Sun, no scripted programs. That would be a very good idea helping boost their other dramas during the week. Partners is finished, only question is when does CBS yank it & return ROE to the schedule ?

  • Martin

    Out of all the scripted shows on CBS that have aired this fall so far, i think all of them bar 6 shows are certain to be renewed.

    The six in question are:

    How I Met Your Mother
    Two And A Half Men – while i think both are extremely likely to be renewed I’m taking away the certainty just by cast negotiation but next season.

    CSI:NY – Ratings are decent enough and very popular overseas and probably would be sold in syndication if renewed but very expensive so could go either way.

    The Good Wife – Ratings not great but enough episodes for syndication and another season couldn’t hurt its syndication, also main reason for renewal is only real broadcast drama with any chance of proper Emmy nominations.

    Vegas – Steadying out already and too early to tell, but could go either way really, could go up more or down more.

    Partners – As mentioned on here, CBS always cancels lowest rated comedy and this is at the moment, but i haven’t completely given up hope on it. It could grow more still, not too likely, but not impossible. I’m hoping that the ratings follow the quality of the show (IMO) and continue to get better and better as the weeks go on.

  • CP

    So far Vegas is my favorite new show of the season, and I hope it stays around. This may be a stupid question, but since Vegas skews kind of old, wouldn’t it make more sense to pair it up Friday with Blue Bloods? It would definitely make sense if CSI NY doesn’t get renewed.

  • Petar Ivanov

    OK guys, Person of Interest on the cover of the new TV Guide Magazine this week.

    Picture for you:
    http://www.cbs.com/shows/person_of_interest/photos/119580/season-two-news/191858

    If you buy it you can tell us is there any secrets for the season there. Thanks. I am not from us so can’t buy it.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Out of all the scripted shows on CBS that have aired this fall so far, i think all of them bar 6 shows are certain to be renewed.

    Yep. And since the reasons that could conceivably cause 2.5 Men and HIMYM to not be renewed are completely hidden from me and I don’t even try and factor into predictions, it basically leaves me talking about 4 shows until the mid-season shows air.

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