CBS: Will 'Vegas' Be Canceled & Un-Canceled Like 'Unforgettable'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 16th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F) canceled 0.36*
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.49
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.66
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.72
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.73
Partners :oops: 0.81
Vegas :| :| :| 0.82
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.97
Elementary :) :) :) :) 1.06
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.82

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The syndication gods that rule over the CBS schedule sometimes cause mere mortals to act in crazy ways. Like last season, when CBS canceled Unforgettable only to "un-cancel" it later for an announced short summer 2013 run. Perhaps the gods decided they were going to run short of fuel for their syndication engine several years from now and wanted to keep their options open. I can't be sure, the gods do not speak to me.

This season, Vegas, the new resident of the Tuesday 10pm timeslot, has ratings that look a lot like Unforgettable's once you factor in that CBS's overall scripted show ratings average is down about 25% vs. last season.

Unforgettable 2.9, 2.5, 2.5

Vegas 2.5, 2.0, 2.0

Last season I had Unforgettable as a "toss up" 3 weeks into the season, and that's where Vegas is today. I think it's unlikely that the Moonves gang pulls a keystone COPS act again and cancels and uncancels a show. Perhaps they're repeating a mantra of "measure twice, cancel once".

Because of the economics of off network syndication, the ratings for both Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods are irrelevant to their renewal prospects this season, both are "certain to be renewed" for a fourth season next year.

While the syndication gods demanded the current fourth season for ratings loser The Good Wife, they are not guaranteed to demand a fifth, so it will likely remain a "toss up" all season long.

Made In Jersey was unsurprisingly the first cancellation of the season.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules of Engagement, sooner rather than later.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • RG-X

    I said it once and I’ll keep saying it – Vegas was heading for cancellation before it aired.

    Time period shows (of the past) don’t work on network TV, only cable.

    With today’s technology and things that are going on in the world, shows need to be more relatable to the viewers. Only exception is sci-fi, which until Revolution, has even had a hard time at it -but has a better chance (like the struggling FRINGE).

    Vegas, Playboy & Pan Am – I rest my case.

  • Anon

    @ RG-X

    You forgot Swingtown.

  • RG-X

    …and Swingtown…haha – yes!

  • Holly

    @RG-X,

    Yet, not so long ago westerns were very popular on broadcast. ;)

    Don’t get me wrong, it’s a hard sell right now, but I don’t think it’s impossible and I don’t think the nets should just concede it to cable anymore than I think they should give up on sci-fi just because so many have failed.

  • Buddy

    The only reason CBS uncanceled Unforgettable is because it was about to be sold to a cable network. That is a hard situation to duplicate.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “The only reason CBS uncanceled Unforgettable is because it was about to be sold to a cable network. That is a hard situation to duplicate.”

    You don’t say. Care to provide credible sourcing for that?

  • Androme

    I hope Vegas isn’t cancelled. It’s a great show and Dennis Quaid and Michael Chiklis (plus the rest of the cast) give great performances.

  • bluejoni

    I really wish CBS would move the Mentalist to Tuesday at 10 in the Vegas spot!

  • Ricky

    I think we all know the reason why The Mentalist is struggling this year. It’s not because people are tired of Red John, it’s because of football delays. Stupid football. Compare last week’s ep (Devil’s Cherry) with this week’s (Not One Red Cent) and see which one had the worse delay and worse ratings. All I can say is this. CBS, what were you thinking? They should have put a truly struggling show into that graveyard – like CSI: NY.

    If you wanna play, come and play today, the Elimination Game, yeah… http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/play-the-elimination-game/152342/

  • Wright

    Good news for Elementary, NCIS and NCIS:LA. Though I wish Elementary would gain a few viewers.

  • POlo

    If Vegas will be canceled, it won’t be uncanceled. I think that Dennis Quaid is a little bit more expensive than Poppy Montgomery…

  • Jared

    I’m loving VEGAS and at the beginning of the season I had no intentions of watching it. I hope it sticks around for awhile..sure it skews old..but CBS should have figured that would be the case when ordering this pilot to series.

  • Stephen

    Partners will be gone soon. I don’t know if CBS will want it to air in Nov. but I don’t know that they want to bring ROE back yet either. HIMYM or 2BG reruns could fill the slot in Nov. but its questionable if that would be a plus for CBS. Either way there’s no reason for CBS to order additional eps for Partners beyond the original 13.

  • THE OLD MAN

    FROM THE CRAZY TGW FAN

    I’d stick with TGW so CBS can guarantee six seasons & CBS Films can guarantee the feature film. Win/win all around. Factor in all the DVD sales & downloads, money all around I tell you!

  • AlexFan

    I thought Neil Patrick Harris said somewhere that this was the last year for HIMYM, if so then maybe it’s like Friends they all want to move on and go while they are still on top. I may be wrong and I hope I am :)

  • LisaNeedsBraces

    Did CBS pull the “un-cancel” move on Unforgettable so they’d have it in their back pocket in case their new dramas this season were disappointments (which is what happened)?

  • Jon

    I love Vegas. Best new show on tv this year. Come on people watch it

  • Richard Steven Hack

    PoI and HFO are the only two shows of interest here and both are safe, so…yawn…

  • Yarden

    Well thanks Bill, now i’m happy.

    Sincerely,
    The crazy fan.

  • AlexFan

    Is the only reason TGW is still around is because of the awards it receives? From my understanding there is no syndication deal set as of yet.

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