CBS: Will 'Vegas' Be Canceled & Un-Canceled Like 'Unforgettable'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 16th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F) canceled 0.36*
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.49
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.66
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.72
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.73
Partners :oops: 0.81
Vegas :| :| :| 0.82
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.97
Elementary :) :) :) :) 1.06
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.82

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The syndication gods that rule over the CBS schedule sometimes cause mere mortals to act in crazy ways. Like last season, when CBS canceled Unforgettable only to "un-cancel" it later for an announced short summer 2013 run. Perhaps the gods decided they were going to run short of fuel for their syndication engine several years from now and wanted to keep their options open. I can't be sure, the gods do not speak to me.

This season, Vegas, the new resident of the Tuesday 10pm timeslot, has ratings that look a lot like Unforgettable's once you factor in that CBS's overall scripted show ratings average is down about 25% vs. last season.

Unforgettable 2.9, 2.5, 2.5

Vegas 2.5, 2.0, 2.0

Last season I had Unforgettable as a "toss up" 3 weeks into the season, and that's where Vegas is today. I think it's unlikely that the Moonves gang pulls a keystone COPS act again and cancels and uncancels a show. Perhaps they're repeating a mantra of "measure twice, cancel once".

Because of the economics of off network syndication, the ratings for both Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods are irrelevant to their renewal prospects this season, both are "certain to be renewed" for a fourth season next year.

While the syndication gods demanded the current fourth season for ratings loser The Good Wife, they are not guaranteed to demand a fifth, so it will likely remain a "toss up" all season long.

Made In Jersey was unsurprisingly the first cancellation of the season.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules of Engagement, sooner rather than later.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • gerry

    oh, i did love swingtown.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Did CBS pull the “un-cancel” move on Unforgettable so they’d have it in their back pocket in case their new dramas this season were disappointments (which is what happened)?”

    That’s what I thought at the time, but since production doesn’t reportedly begin until January, they didn’t intend it to be a replacement for any Fall shows, and since they had Undercover Boss to replace Made In Jersey, and Golden Boy to replace Vegas (maybe, it could still get a full season order), and Elementary is a lock for a full season, they’ve really got nowhere to put it.

  • omar

    The Mentalist why this rating ,bec. cbs out of there mind and put the show in sunday to kill it i predect that showwill have afinal season of 13 episodes

    elementary freaking awesome willget renewed

  • darius

    The Mentalist depends on more aspects besides the rating.It s future is going to be influenced by the quality of dramas pilots season and the fee required by Warner Brothers

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “The Mentalist depends on more aspects besides the rating.It s future is going to be influenced by the quality of dramas pilots season and the fee required by Warner Brothers”

    It’s pretty much all on the relationship between ratings and license fee, the “quality of drama pilots” is irrelevant to Mentalist’s future.

    CBS has premiered 3 new dramas each Fall in recent history. They’ll almost certainly do that again. The choice will not be Mentalist vs. new drama, it will be Mentalist vs. Good Wife vs. CSINY (and marginally likely vs. Vegas).

  • Petar Ivanov

    @ Bill Gorman
    choice will not be Mentalist vs. new drama, it will be Mentalist vs. Good Wife vs. CSINY

    And how many of these can survive? All of them? one? two?

    ps By the way a lot of crazy fans this year:

    ‘FROM THE CRAZY TGW FAN’
    ‘Sincerely,
    The crazy fan.’

    WE WILL WIN. More bad days for tv by the numbers i guess. Its interesting are every year crazy die-hard fans go more and more and more? Esspesaly since shows every year are down?

  • Dennis

    NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “And how many of these can survive? All of them? one? two?”

    CBS will cancel two of the following shows: CSINY, Mentalist, Good Wife, Vegas, CSI.

    Or if you want to bring the mid-season show into it, they will cancel three of the following shows: CSINY, Mentalist, Good Wife, Vegas, CSI, Golden Boy.

    These CBS posts will basically rehash that single point for the rest of the season.

    Buckle up, crazies.

    “More bad days for tv by the numbers i guess. Its interesting are every year crazy die-hard fans go more and more and more? Esspesaly since shows every year are down?”

    Au contraire, mon ami. We have but scratched the surface of dipped our toe into the TV crazy reservoir out there. It still looks endless from our perspective. (removed mixed metaphor)

  • darius

    Bill, are you certain of Elementary renewal?It went from 3.1 to 2.5 in a single week!

  • Petar Ivanov

    Hope one day and Person of interest will be in main page. If uptrend continue may be even this week. I like The walking dead, Once upon a time and Revolution and they take that places a lot, but why CBS shows take it so litle? Even NCIS. I mean is there any rules or something? How you choose wich show to take main picture after ratings of the day are there?

  • Petar Ivanov

    Beyonce to Perform February 3 During Super Bowl XLVII Halftime Show

    Good. Like her. Now we must learn wich CBS show will take post Super Bowl slot….am i smelling poll here?

    Of course my opinion is from months… at least 3 months, but one more time:

    Person of interest will be with the best retention ever after super bowl in history of that slot. No one other tv show(sitcom or drama) on broadcast network is so much male skewed. After football was over(last season) all shows start droping in the spring only PoI start hit its best ratings. Super Bowl will make PoI 4+ in demo hit drama. From there CBS can move PoI in wednesday at 8 as new anchor drama(like NCIS) after it POI spin-off(with female lead) and in 10 CM. Move survivor in sundays with one cycle per year and CBS sill have both old reality shows(TAR) for few more years.

  • Max Vrany

    @darius, Look at the post. Elementary is “likely renewal”, and it’s above the arbitrary cutoff point between “likely” and “certain” renewal.*

    *It’s also a new show, and Bill is somewhat reluctant to call new shows “certain renewals”, but my points still stand.

  • Nick

    Because of the economics of off network syndication, the ratings for both Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods are irrelevant to their renewal prospects this season, both are “certain to be renewed” for a fourth season next year.

    Shouldn’t Mike & Molly be a part of that as well?

  • Dan

    @Nick – Mike & Molly is part of that, thats why it has 5 smiley faces.

    @Bill – If you asked me 4 months ago if this would be CSI NY’s final season Id say definitely yes, but I;m even on the fence. CBS could very well keep it for another year where it will reach 216-220 episodes. Its ratings are crap but CBS’s current shows arent breakout hits. I can see Elementary getting renewed so CBS could save face, Vegas is 50/50 but if CBS decides not to save it than The Mentalist could be renewed. If Vegas or Elementary get renewed, I could see CBS moving one of them to Sundays at 9 and I really think Good Wife is dead. If CBS cant get a deal by May than its done and even though CBS doesnt own Mentalist, it does build on Good Wife and CBS could use it next year. With the exception of the powerhouse NCIS, all of CBS’s other dramas are down from last year which may mean their bubble shows may be safe by May.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “@Bill – If you asked me 4 months ago if this would be CSI NY’s final season Id say definitely yes, but I;m even on the fence. CBS could very well keep it for another year where it will reach 216-220 episodes. Its ratings are crap but CBS’s current shows arent breakout hits. I can see Elementary getting renewed so CBS could save face, Vegas is 50/50 but if CBS decides not to save it than The Mentalist could be renewed. If Vegas or Elementary get renewed, I could see CBS moving one of them to Sundays at 9 and I really think Good Wife is dead. If CBS cant get a deal by May than its done and even though CBS doesnt own Mentalist, it does build on Good Wife and CBS could use it next year. With the exception of the powerhouse NCIS, all of CBS’s other dramas are down from last year which may mean their bubble shows may be safe by May.”

    As I noted in an earlier comment, we are going to have plenty of time to grind that very discussion into atom sized dust between now and May ;)

  • Dan

    @Bill – I cant see CSI being a bubble show. CSI NY, Good Wife, Mentalist, Golden Boy, definitely but I can see CBS keeping this around or giving it a proper season. It would be funny if CBS axed CSI NY and moved CSI to fridays where it had originally aired in 2000-2001.

  • Melanie

    I can only go by my own response to the show, but I’m losing interest in Elementary fast. I wouldn’t take it out of the pool of potential shows to be cancelled quite yet. That’d give you one more to talk about anyway. ;)

    I wonder if Vegas would do well on Fridays with Blue Bloods?
    Now that the Emmy bloom is off TGW rose, maybe CBS will finally cancel it. Maybe a short final season to squeak to that 100 episode mark and one more opportunity for Emmy glory.

  • Dan

    @Melanie – Maybe if Vegas gets renewed it could be headed to fridays. Its too early to tell but if CBS had to renew 1 drama it would be Elementary but with all of CBS’s dramas down, they could renew Vegas also.

    @Bill – CBS probably wishes that they had Unforgettable for spring, but thats not a good idea because they would be forced to ax it by May rather than in the Summer where they could make there decision in time. CBS smartly used Undercover Boss to plug the hole that Made in Jersey left. When UB runs out of eps, they have Golden Boy (which is next years Miami Medical, CHAOS, and NYC 22) Hopefully Golden Boy could premiere by February or March giving the show a chance unlike the other midseason entries.

    Its possible CBS gives a final fifth season to The Good Wife like Fox did with Fringe for syndication purposes but CBS rarely announces final seasons.

  • Dan

    @Bill – Also with a number of CBS’s dramas considerably down year to year, maybe Vegas’s numbers aren’t too bad. We Know CBS wont tolerate Made in Jersey numbers but they are willing to air a show that goes down to a 2.0 while in the past they would have axed a series that performed badly in that timeslot. When CBS aired shows like Smith, 3 lbs, and Cane in that slot those were yanked after a few eps but in recent years, CBS is willing to tolerate those numbers.

  • Court

    I hope keep csi: ny love show the work so hard to keep on CBS .

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