CBS: Will 'Vegas' Be Canceled & Un-Canceled Like 'Unforgettable'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 16th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F) canceled 0.36*
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.49
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.66
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.72
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.73
Partners :oops: 0.81
Vegas :| :| :| 0.82
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.97
Elementary :) :) :) :) 1.06
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.82

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The syndication gods that rule over the CBS schedule sometimes cause mere mortals to act in crazy ways. Like last season, when CBS canceled Unforgettable only to "un-cancel" it later for an announced short summer 2013 run. Perhaps the gods decided they were going to run short of fuel for their syndication engine several years from now and wanted to keep their options open. I can't be sure, the gods do not speak to me.

This season, Vegas, the new resident of the Tuesday 10pm timeslot, has ratings that look a lot like Unforgettable's once you factor in that CBS's overall scripted show ratings average is down about 25% vs. last season.

Unforgettable 2.9, 2.5, 2.5

Vegas 2.5, 2.0, 2.0

Last season I had Unforgettable as a "toss up" 3 weeks into the season, and that's where Vegas is today. I think it's unlikely that the Moonves gang pulls a keystone COPS act again and cancels and uncancels a show. Perhaps they're repeating a mantra of "measure twice, cancel once".

Because of the economics of off network syndication, the ratings for both Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods are irrelevant to their renewal prospects this season, both are "certain to be renewed" for a fourth season next year.

While the syndication gods demanded the current fourth season for ratings loser The Good Wife, they are not guaranteed to demand a fifth, so it will likely remain a "toss up" all season long.

Made In Jersey was unsurprisingly the first cancellation of the season.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules of Engagement, sooner rather than later.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • stefan

    My midseason guesses:
    Sunday:
    8: amazing race
    9: Good Wife
    10: Mentalist

    Monday:
    8: How i met your mother
    8:30: Rules of engagement/Friend me
    9: 2 broke girls
    9:30: mike and molly
    10: Hawaii 5-O

    Tuesday:
    8: NCIS
    9: NCIS LA
    10: Golden Boy

    Wednesday:
    8: Survivor
    9: CSI
    10: Criminal Minds

    Thursday:
    8: Big Bang Theory
    8:30: 2 and a half men
    9: Person of interest
    10: Elementary

    Friday:
    8: Undercover Boss
    9: CSI: NY
    10: Blue Bloods

  • Ultima

    @Bill Gorman
    CBS will cancel two of the following shows: … CSI.

    Buckle up, crazies.

    Hope you’re buckled up, too! ;)

  • psychic

    “as it is in its 7th season”
    It’s in its fifth.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “@Bill Gorman
    CBS will cancel two of the following shows: … CSI.

    Buckle up, crazies.

    Hope you’re buckled up, too! ”

    Clearly, including every non green show in my laundry list made it seem like I thought CSI might be canceled. Communication error, Will Robinson!

  • Riff Rafferty

    “Unforgettable” – co-production between CBS and Sony, with CBS paying quite a bit less than they were paying for it last year.

    “Vegas” – 100% produced by CBS.

    So, no.

    It’s doing better than I thought it would but not as well as CBS thought it would, so we’ll see where it levels off.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “So, no.”

    Riffster, we agree!

    ‘so we’ll see where it levels off.”

    We agree twice!

    In fact, I don’t remember the last time you disagreed with me.

    It that a sign of the coming apocalypse?

  • Dan

    With all of CBS’s shows down year to year, this gives more of a chance for new shows like Vegas and Elementary to be renewed as well as CSI NY. CSI is in no danger and I would be surprised if they cut that short, because it did help put CBS on the map 12 years ago.

    The comedies are a different story, The Big Bnag Theory, 2 Broke Girls and Mike & Molly are certain to return. However Two and a Half Men and How I Met Your Mother both still have healthy ratings but HIMYM is owned by FOX and the actors havent signed on for a ninth year and the way that that series goes the storylines need to be wrapped up to give the show a series finale. Many think that this year will be the end although I can see CBS giving it a farewell season. Also many think this year will be the end for Two and a Half Men but those numbers are healthy too. Partners is dead but I expect it to last all 13 episodes.

    So ratings dont really matter for HIMYM and Two and a Half Men, other factors will determine if those veterans will end or continue.

  • Dan

    Also even though Rules of Engagement has not premiered its seventh season yet, I think that show is doomed to be axed as well. Its renewal was just to get to 100 episodes and I dont think there will be anymore this season.

  • Rob R

    The juxtaposition of Hawaii Five O and Partners does not make sense, does it? Doesn’t this chart belie the whole premise of TVbytheNumbers?? FIVE STARS for H5-O just because it has a syndication deal? There will be 72 episodes of H5-O at the end of this season. That can be syndicated for weekend airings and the cancellation could occur in May. Why would CBS give up valuable real estate on Monday night to this program that is being trounced by Revolution?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @Rob R, it does not make sense to *you*.

  • Cristi M.

    The Mentalist should move from Sunday and Vegas will be cancelled.

  • John

    It is amazing how Bill is wrong year after year and people still take him serious:)

  • Ultima

    @Rob R
    There will be 72 episodes of H5-O at the end of this season. That can be syndicated for weekend airings and the cancellation could occur in May.

    Except that CBS isn’t trying to sell Hawaii Five-0, they’ve already sold it. If they produce 22-24 episodes next year, those have already been bought. So even with low ratings, the show will still be making a profit.

  • darius

    H50 has a syndication deal starting 2014 when it will have reached the 88 magic number.It was sold into syndication for a record fee, of around 2.5 million.H50 and Ncis La are the safest shows on cbs from this point of view,with record syndication deals and cbs ownership.

  • ShawnM

    Just wondering, do syndication deals have a minimum AND maximum number of episodes until an opt-out clause kicks in for both sides? Are there agreed upon rules? One would think that TNT might not be too happy with how things are going as far as H5O is concerned. They might not even want more than 88 episodes of the show considering the rights fee.

  • bsp

    “CBS’s overall scripted show ratings average is down about 25% vs. last season.”
    Wow. That’s a story all its own, yes? How are the other broadcast nets doing?

  • Justin121

    HIMYM: will have a pre-announced final season. It’s not ending this year.

    Partners: Canceled.

    Vegas: relegated to summer.

    CSI: NY, The Good Wide, Blue Bloods: renewed.

    If / when NY gets cancelled, TGW moves to Friday to accompany BB for a few more years.

    The Mentalist is doing good on Sunday: renewed.

  • Justin121

    CBS will cancel two of the following shows: CSINY, Mentalist, Good Wife, Vegas,.

    Uh, oh. I didn’t realize it was that serious.

    Mentalist does too good to be cancelled. TGW is loved by CBS.

    I have a strong feeling that one, possibly two, out of Good Wife, CSI: NY, and Vegas will become summer series.

    Most of CBS’ top rated hits are aging, and they need to shoehorn new blood into syndication.

  • tj

    I think that CBS should axe the Good Wife over CSI: Ny because it got beat by American Dad one week. That’s kind of sad.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Uh, oh. I didn’t realize it was that serious.”

    Perhaps you’re just realizing it, but CBS has canceled 3 Fall drama hours for many years.

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