Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Made In Jersey (F)||canceled||0.36*|
|Blue Bloods (F)||0.52|
|The Good Wife||0.66|
|Mike & Molly||1.11|
|Person Of Interest||1.12|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.20|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.26|
|2 Broke Girls||1.34|
|Two And A Half Men||1.34|
|Big Bang Theory||already renewed||1.82|
The syndication gods that rule over the CBS schedule sometimes cause mere mortals to act in crazy ways. Like last season, when CBS canceled Unforgettable only to "un-cancel" it later for an announced short summer 2013 run. Perhaps the gods decided they were going to run short of fuel for their syndication engine several years from now and wanted to keep their options open. I can't be sure, the gods do not speak to me.
This season, Vegas, the new resident of the Tuesday 10pm timeslot, has ratings that look a lot like Unforgettable's once you factor in that CBS's overall scripted show ratings average is down about 25% vs. last season.
Unforgettable 2.9, 2.5, 2.5
Vegas 2.5, 2.0, 2.0
Last season I had Unforgettable as a "toss up" 3 weeks into the season, and that's where Vegas is today. I think it's unlikely that the Moonves gang pulls a keystone cops act again and cancels and uncancels a show. Perhaps they're repeating a mantra of "measure twice, cancel once".
Because of the economics of off network syndication, the ratings for both Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods are irrelevant to their renewal prospects this season, both are "certain to be renewed" for a fourth season next year.
While the syndication gods demanded the current fourth season for ratings loser The Good Wife, they are not guaranteed to demand a fifth, so it will likely remain a "toss up" all season long.
Made in Jersey was unsurprisingly the first cancellation of the season.
Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules Of Engagement, sooner rather than later.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.