CW: '90210' Would Be Canceled Elsewhere, But Expect A Short Final Season On The CW

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 16th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Gossip Girl final season 0.46
90210 :| :| :| 0.46
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.68
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Beauty And The Beast :) :) :) :) 1.37
Arrow :) :) :) :) 1.48
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.82

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With its woeful premiere ratings, 90210 would be headed for certain cancellation anywhere else but the CW. However, the CW has shown a fondness for short final seasons of their veteran shows (One Tree Hill, Gossip Girl) once they are past their sell by dates, and that's what I'd expect for 90210. However, I reserve the right to keep the prediction a "toss up" for at least a while until we can see more results for other CW shows over the next few weeks.

Hart  Of Dixie's second episode ratings cooled noticeably, and it's now no better than a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation at the end of this season. It could become another one of the Cancellation Bear's sophomore snacks.

The rest of the CW shows likely have the folks at CW HQ giddy with their initial results.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • SPM

    Should never have been renewed neither should Flop of Dixie and Gossip Flop.

  • Jason50

    Nikita week has finally come! The best show on CW with the lowest ratings finally puts Fridays back on track. On top of that the premire of Cinemax’s Hunted is on Friday as well. I caught the first two episodes online and I’m sure fans of Nikita will enjoy this show. A dark gritty drama with a fair amount of action.

    Wednesday: Arrow and SPN are a good pair for Wed
    Thursday: TVD still going strong this season, B&B…well…Kristen Kreuk is still a hottie.YAY!!!!
    Friday: NIKITA! Then turn the station afterwards.

  • Tom

    @ Mr. Gorman Permit me to restate my previous remarks. Warners, CBS and the CW have recently monetized their inventory of programs through the Netflix and Hulu deals. The CW acquires additional revenues through its own website. Obviously, none of this directly benefits the network’s affiliates. I never said it did. However, most of this income stream did not previously exist and now serves as a source of funds for more and better programming. This, in turn, could potentially be of considerable benefit to the network’s affiliates. For example, the CW already claims it’s adding 50 hours of additional programming to this year’s schedule. So, I’m fairly convinced that the Warner/CBS joint venture is determined to keep its network of affiliates intact and has the money to do so. The only question now is whether the CW can create enough quality programming.

  • Tom

    You know, there’s one thing that always struck me as being odd about 90210. Unlike its predecessor, the cast of this show clearly never looked like teenagers. The actors were all in their early to mid-20s when the sequel premiered and they looked it. Other than that, the rest of the show seems largely concerned with an endless series of relationship triangles involving the same half dozen or so actors. I don’t believe anyone else has commented on that here but it does strike me as odd that a show with those sorts of flaws could have stayed in production this long.

  • Lauren

    Yes Gossip Girl has come to its end but look at all the flops they made last year in first seasons. At least it had a good run. I look forward to the last 10 episodes. UK Fan

  • Sid

    @Tom

    Have you looked at the ratings these past 4 Seasons? 9O21O has fallen hard this Season but it’s been a solid performer for the network over the past 4 seasons and has pretty much outperformed half of The CW’s lineup over the past two Seasons.

    This season, 9O21O’s renewal is not looking good but it was never in question during Seasons 1-4.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @Tom,
    “However, most of this income stream did not previously exist and now serves as a source of funds for more and better programming.”

    Or it could be serving as another source of CW operating loss mitigation. We really don’t know for sure how the CW programming budget is being changed despite what the CW may say in public.

    “For example, the CW already claims it’s adding 50 hours of additional programming to this year’s schedule.”

    I’m not sure where you might have seen that, but currently the CW has just about exactly the same number of original scripted drama hours scheduled for this season as they did at this point last season.

    50 hours is 2+ full seasons of scripted shows. If they’re going to be in this season, what are they? Networks do not simply pull unknown scripted shows out of a hat in mid-season.

    “So, I’m fairly convinced that the Warner/CBS joint venture is determined to keep its network of affiliates intact and has the money to do so. The only question now is whether the CW can create enough quality programming.”

    Oh, they’re determined, it’s just not clear they’re going to be successful.

  • herpderp

    If the Tribune-owned CW affiliates defect from the network when the contract is up, the CBS-owned independents in the market will pick it up. Les Moonves wouldn’t have it any other way.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “If the Tribune-owned CW affiliates defect from the network when the contract is up, the CBS-owned independents in the market will pick it up. Les Moonves wouldn’t have it any other way.”

    You’re reaching. The 16 Tribune owned stations aren’t the CW’s only defection risk, and CBS can’t easily replace them all with their owned independents.

    There are 3 CBS owned independent stations (and only LA and Dallas are in significant markets). Add 2 more if you assume CBS would flip the Miami and Boston MyNet affiliates.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @CW Network cheerleaders,

    The fundamental problem that the CW faces with their affiliates is that their syndicated stuff does better than much of the CW network stuff.

    For example, in the 7:30pm half hour last night the syndicated programming drew a 0.9 A18-49 rating on CW affiliates.

    Factor in that the CW programs 8-10, when viewing levels are higher than 7:30, and the affiliates start thinking they could do better with all syndicated stuff (as they probably are on Sunday night since the CW gave it up several years ago).

  • herpderp

    Still, a defection of that size will cause a radical shift in the affiliation landscape. Certainly some smaller independents or MyNet stations would be interested in picking up the CW in some shape or form, be it a sub-channel or dual affiliation in the case of MyNet.

  • Tom

    @ Mr. Gorman My comment about the CW’s 50 hours of additional programming came from blog.cwtv.com for May 17, 2012:

    “One of our biggest priorities this year at The CW was adding more original programming, and we’ve added 50 original hours to our schedule in 2012,” said Mark Pedowitz, President, The CW. “With dynamic new dramas for the fall and midseason, and our first-ever summer schedule leading into our October fall launch, this is poised to be a transformative season for The CW.”

    I don’t understand what you mean about other loss mitigation. If that requires anything close to the one billion dollars the joint venture expects to rake in on the Netflix deal, I’d expect them to have closed up shop by now.

  • Alex

    CW has been way too nice, 90210 should not get a season 6, just because its been on air for so long or needs a special final season short order. Those numbers are terrible, and worse than gg season 5.

  • Ian

    If the network wants to rebuild which it really needs to it has to start kicking shows like 90210 to the curb. If the network moves its focus to sci-fi dramas it could grow much better in ratings. They could make WB esque shows such as Buffy the Vampire Slayer, Angel, Charmed all of which were fantastic and huge successes in critical acclaim and ratings. Just dont focus on the teen romance aspect or if you do at least do it like Buffy and Angel or Buffy and Spike! Although its to early to tell Arrow has been a success aswell as Beauty and the Beast and certainly the Vampire Diaries bur not as big as the previously mentioned shows because the shows focus to much on the teen drama romance aspect which doesnt draw anyone because Twilight has already been there and dome that and people found out that that sucks. But it needs to get rid of their teen glamour shows such as 90210 and the soon to be gone GG. However they did pick up Carrie Diaries wich I guess is going to be teen glamour but that could be a fail and of it is they need to consider changing all their programming or it could end up becoming a completely online network or no network at all.

  • Ale

    @ Tessa

    I like Supernatural but my show is Smallville, I will be pretty piss off (and other fans too) if Pedowitz renewed SPN just to break the record. I mean is only being one year since Smallville ended and that title belongs to the show.

  • buddhaboi

    last year i only watched spn on cw. now this year i’ve added arrow, vd and b&tb. i am loving seeing the cw do so much better now that dawn is gone. hope it can keep it up (maybe i’ll even check out nakita again).

  • Josh

    @Ale
    Most likely SPN rating wise so far will give it a season 9 it will earn it.
    Now threw season 9 who knows what may happen.

    Even if SPN get a season 10 Smallville will have a few more episodes on because of the writers strike.

    I love Smallville been a fan since the beginning, but SPN fought tooth in nail to get where it is today so I wont be pissed if it gets it.
    SPN did escape cancellation twice I think back in the day.

  • cas127

    Bill,

    “giddy with their initial results”

    I’m confused – while the new shows are doing well on a *relative* basis (compared to older CW shows), the network as a whole is down 40% STD per your own numbers:

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/16/2012-2013-season-nbc-leads-among-adults-18-49-while-cbs-is-number-1-with-total-viewers-through-week-3-ending-october-14-2012/153298/

    The networks are selling absolute viewership numbers – not relative in-network standing, so the CW is likely getting slaughtered financially.

    Am I missing something?

  • Josh

    @Ale
    Oh that may also come down to Warner Bros since SPN sell DVDs like hotcakes.

  • Lucy

    October 16, 2012 (Burbank, CA) – The CW’s late fall launch strategy paid off last week, as the network saw its most watched week in 20 months (since 2/21/11), had its best week in adults 18-49 in a year, and had its best week in adults and women 18-34 since February.
    The CW averaged 1.95 million viewers last week (10/8/12-10/14/12), its most watched week in 20 months, and a +17% increase over this same week last season (10/3/11-10/9/11). The CW was also up in adults 18-49 (0.8/2) compared to this week last season.
    This was The CW’s best week among adults 18-49 in a year (11/7/11) and its best since February in adults 18-34 (0.7/2) and women 18-34 (1.0/3).
    WEDNESDAY
    The series premiere of ARROW on Wednesday night drew 4.14 million viewers, and was the network’s most watched telecast of any show, on any night, in three years (10/29/2009). It was The CW’s most watched series premiere since THE VAMPIRE DIARIES (9/10/2009).
    ARROW was also the most watched show in the Wednesday 8:00-9:00 pm time period in more than three years (5/13/2009).
    ARROW beat NBC’s original comedies in the hour in total viewers and in adults 18-34 and tied in adults 18-49.
    The ARROW premiere also gave SUPERNATURAL a boost; it was SUPERNATURAL’s most watched episode (2.51M) since 10/29/10, and it had its best adults 18-34 rating (1.0/3) since 5/6/11.
    Week to week, SUPERNATURAL was up 35% in total viewers, and up two-tenths in both adults 18-34 and adults 18-49 (1.0/3).
    It was The CW’s best Wednesday night in total viewers (3.3M) in more than two years (5/12/10) and in two years in adults 18-34 (1.1/3, 12/1/10) and in adults 18-49 (1.2/3, 10/13/10).
    When Live + 3 Day DVR viewing is added in, ARROW averaged 4.8 million viewers, a 16% jump over its L+SD total, and it also gained 24% in adults 18-34 (1.4 rating). With L+3 data, SUPERNATURAL gained 26% in total viewers (3.2M) and 32% in adults 18-34 (1.3 rating).
    THURSDAY
    Entering its fourth season, THE VAMPIRE DIARIES still has teeth. With competition including the NFL and MLB playoffs, Thursday’s premiere was up 13% in women 18-34 (2.6/8 vs. 2.3/8) compared to last year’s season premiere, up 7% in adults 18-49 (1.6/5 vs. 1.5/5), up 3% in total viewers (3.18M vs 3.1M) and held steady in adults 18-34 (1.7/6).
    THE VAMPIRE DIARIES outrated both NBC and ABC in the 8:00-9:00 pm hour in adults and women 18-34, and outrated NBC and tied ABC in adults 18-49. THE VAMPIRE DIARIES also outrated NBC in total viewers (3.18 vs. 3.14).
    It was THE VAMPIRE DIARIES best performance among women 18-34 in two years (11/11/10).
    Compared to this same week last season, THE VAMPIRE DIARIES was up 30% in women 18-34, 14% in adults 18-49, 6% in adults 18-34 and 10% in total viewers.
    The series premiere of BEAUTY AND THE BEAST had a solid debut – versus last year’s season premiere of THE SECRET CIRCLE it was off just a tenth in adults 18-49 (1.2/3) and two tenths in adults 18-34 (1.1/3).
    Versus this same week last year, BEAUTY AND THE BEAST is up across the board in the time period, up 22% in adults 18-34, up 14% in women 18-34 (1.6/4) and up 50% in adults 18-49 (1.2/3).
    With Live + 3 Day viewing added in, THE VAMPIRE DIARIES rises 23% in total viewers (3.9M), 26% in adults 18-34 (2.2) and 27% in women 18-34 (3.3). Including Live + 3 Day viewing, BEAUTY AND THE BEAST rose 17% in total viewers (3.25M), 23% in adults 18-34 (1.3) and 25% in women 18-34 (2.0).
    FRIDAY
    Friday night’s repeats of the series premieres of ARROW and BEAUTY AND THE BEAST gave the series some great additional sampling.
    An encore of the series premiere of ARROW at 8:00-9:00 pm drew 2.1 million viewers, a 0.6/2 in adults 18-49, a 0.4/2 in adults 18-34 and a 0.5/2 in women 18-34.
    An encore of BEAUTY AND THE BEAST at 9:00-10:00 pm drew 1.4 million viewers to the time period.

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