CW: '90210' Would Be Canceled Elsewhere, But Expect A Short Final Season On The CW

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 16th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Gossip Girl final season 0.46
90210 :| :| :| 0.46
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.68
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Beauty And The Beast :) :) :) :) 1.37
Arrow :) :) :) :) 1.48
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.82

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With its woeful premiere ratings, 90210 would be headed for certain cancellation anywhere else but the CW. However, the CW has shown a fondness for short final seasons of their veteran shows (One Tree Hill, Gossip Girl) once they are past their sell by dates, and that's what I'd expect for 90210. However, I reserve the right to keep the prediction a "toss up" for at least a while until we can see more results for other CW shows over the next few weeks.

Hart  Of Dixie's second episode ratings cooled noticeably, and it's now no better than a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation at the end of this season. It could become another one of the Cancellation Bear's sophomore snacks.

The rest of the CW shows likely have the folks at CW HQ giddy with their initial results.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Brandy

    Georgiegirl, Americas Next Top Model is syndicated on Style & Oxygen,Gossip Girl is syndicated on Style,Smallville is syndicated on TNT(like SPN),& for a while a few years ago on abcfamily,One Tree Hill is syndicated on SoapNet.

  • Ralph

    I think everyone is fooling them selfs if they actually think 90210 is not coming back for a 6th season. I mean they did it every year for the past 2 to 3 years.

    Smallville final season2010
    One Tree hill final season2011
    Gossip Girl final season 2012
    90210 final seaoson2013

    and I bet you Nikita final season.2014

    Like someone stated before if 90210 goes up and stay steady and the rest of the new shows bomb it might come back for a full season simply because syndication (More money) and it’s one of the cheapest shows to produce which is why it’s been on for as long as it has been.

  • thesnowleopard

    @Ralph
    Smallville and OTH had good enough ratings for a final year. They’d have brought Smallville back again if they could have gotten Tom Welling to resign.

    Gossip Girl barely limped to a final ten-episode season. Not a ringing endorsement. If it had done worse than Ringer or TSC, it probably wouldn’t have gotten even a shortened a final season.

    90210 was in the middle of the pack last season. It was just enough ahead of the Cancellation Bear. If it stays that way this season, it will probably get a final season. If not, it won’t.

    People need to get over the idea that these announced final seasons are gifts to the fans because they are not. They are calculated marketing to get a final season bounce, if possible. Gossip Girl’s got no final season bounce. This is likely to give the CW execs pause on trying that tactic out again with an underperforming show.

    There is no guarantee that Nikita will get another season. No, don’t tell me about syndication. That is only a possible factor. If Nikita does poorly enough, it will go.

  • Dan

    @Thesnowleopard – Nikita will get a fourth season. Syndication is a big factor and since ANTM wont be on the fall schedule, CW needs something for fridays, so its coming back. Also despite how badly 90210 is doing, shows that they like they will give a final season, even though Smallville and One Tree Hill were still doing well, they both needed to end. CW sees that 90210 is not doing well but they dont care, this is the network that put up with LA Complex. 90210 will get a likely short final season to wrap things up.

  • Ralph

    Thank you Dan

  • Bizarro

    90210 did go up a little this week which is suprising because the premiere episodes for the CW show’s is usually the highest they get. If 90210 is getting 0.5’s and 0.4’s for the rest of its 22 eps it will be cancelled. The CW already has all of their shows above it except GG which is ending. In March the latest the network will cancel the show if it doesn’t improve and give 90210 a proper ending. Which is plenty of time because they will wrap up filming in a month.

  • Kate

    The thing with 90210 is that it’s steady. It didn’t hit a .5 last year until the finale while the the the rest of the shows (minus TVD and SPN) were getting them long before. If it stays at a .6/.5, it’ll get another season. Whether that’s a shortened one or not depends on how the other shows perform and the pilots they order. More eps of 90210 will get them more money.

    HOD is already floundering.

  • gerry

    there is no reason that this season of 90210 can’t be announced as final season. its early enough that it doesn’t need a shortened final. and good riddance. as someone who watched that show initially (2 seasons) out of nostalgia of the first, its just a bad show that gets progressively worse as it goes.

  • Poweranimals

    Why doesn’t Arrow have five smileys even though it’s already doing better than Supernatural?

  • Mickey

    @Poweranimals

    Because sometimes a show will have high premiere numbers and then fall off a cliff. With only one result so far, it’s impossible to tell what the trend will be. (Same with BB.) Will it stay steady at 1.3? Will it drop to 0.7 over the coming weeks and then level out? Impossible to know for sure, but I think it’ll stay above 1.0 and keep going strong. Whereas Supernatural is a known entity. It’s a steady performer with an extremely loyal fanbase. (Nice to see those five smileys right off the bat!)

  • C

    uh yet again HOD is a toss up

  • Nick

    I love 90210 and I’m not just saying this because of that fact but 90210 has basically followed in Gossip Girl’s foot steps.
    Season 05 is getting the same ratings as Gossip Girl’s season 05. And like others have said, The CW wouldn’t end 90210 without a proper ending.

    I would put my money on the short final season. It only makes sense. 90210 is one of the oldest shows on the network right now, they’re not going to end it unless they do it right.

  • BJH

    Arrow (5/5 renewal chance) – Liked it from the start. Moody, sexy, troubled… very young American. It matches well with SPN. Anyone think an Arrow/Nikita pairing would’ve been intriguing?

    Emily Owens MD (3/5 renewal chance) – Halfway decent. It actually surprised me. Mamie Gummer’s talent shined, but the big detraction is the voice over. There just needs to be less of it. Also: Hartley looks damn fine in glasses.

    Beauty/Beast (2/5 renewal chance) – It was OK. It took the entire hour for me to like Kreuk and Ryan. There’s much need for improvement. Secret Circle (sorry, was a fan) held pretty well through the fall, so we’ll see.

    90210 (I don’t watch this, I watch GG) – Needs to follow GG out the door. CW needs to revamp their lineup. Carrie Diaries won’t help.

  • Cristi M.

    Beauty and Arrow will have another season for sure, but i don’t know about Hart of Dixie…:(

  • Doug

    I think that if Arrow manages to stay at or above a 1.0 this season, the CW overall will call the season a success. They haven’t launched a proper hit since Vampire Diaries.

  • Justin121

    CW has 10 shows.

    They are already likely to have 3 hours to fill

    Gossip Girl/Carri Diaries

    Emily Owens

    Beauty & Beast

    I don’t see 90210 or Dixie going anywhere.

    They’re gonna have to phas their older shows out, though.

    2014: 90210 season 6
    2015: Spuernatural season 10
    2016: Vamp Diaries season 7

    Nikita will join one of them. Nikita could be the one to go in ’14 while 9-0 sticks longer (CW’s version of One Tree Hill??).

  • Tom

    @ Cristi M

    Wait to see how far B&B drops this evening before predicting another season. I expect the show will lose a large chunk of last week’s premiere audience simply because neither the detectives nor the Beast are remotely believable.

  • Poweranimals

    Why is everyone insisting Beauty and the Beast will get canceled even though there’s virtually no evidence to support it.

  • PV

    @poweranimal we believe it will get canceled because the quality is BAD! and won’t keep TVD’s audience. It only had one episode. Until midseason we can’t have evidence that it will get renewed, because it can fall at any point. The Secret Circle for example, fell a lot on the last episodes, while Ringer started falling in the second episode already.

  • Mark Wood

    Poweranimals

    Here are some of the reasons:

    1. Since the CW started most shows with first week encores actually manage to equal or do worse then those encore ratings by the time the season ends. > 4 really doesn’t look good.

    2. The percentage drop in the half hours of its first broadcast (never a good sign for a show).

    3. Its actually starting levels. Versus the two other shows that started with VD as its lead in. B&tB held the least amount in viewers, adults 18-49, and adults 18-34.

    4. I thought it was awful (but hell tv is full of shows that I think are awful, so thats the one thats the least important in my opinion).

    Of course those data points, trends are exceedingly thin, the real meat and potatoes will be the data from tonight and next week.

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