FOX: 'Raising Hope' Is Certain To Be Renewed; The Syndication Gods Strike Again

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 16th, 2012

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) final season 0.47
The Mob Doctor :oops: 0.54
Ben And Kate :| :| :| 0.80
Raising Hope :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
The Mindy Project :) :) :) :) 0.95
Bones :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
The Cleveland Show :) :) :) :) 1.01
Bob's Burgers :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 10/16) 1.13
American Dad already renewed 1.17
Glee :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.21
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.27
Family Guy already renewed 1.54
The Simpsons already renewed 1.58

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10/16 PM update: No surprise that Bob's Burgers has been renewed for a fourth season.
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With another in my series of "third season shows produced by their network are guaranteed a fourth season" prediction moves, Raising Hope is now predicted as "certain to be renewed" even with its somewhat weak early ratings. While the syndication gods ruling Fox aren't quite as predictable as those ruling CBS, it would take nothing short of a cataclysm to prevent the show from getting a fourth season.

The fact that Ben And Kate received a full season order shouldn't give too much comfort to its fans. Assuming Fox wants to keep 2 hours of comedies on Tuesday, and that New Girl and Raising Hope will return next season, at a minimum, the lower rated of Ben And Kate and The Mindy Project is currently in danger of cancellation.

Fox's The Mob Doctor is still certain to be canceled no matter how many new actors they sign up for episodes that may never air.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • RyanCanada

    I Love Raising Hope these first few episode are by far the best! soo hilarious

  • @ramirescl

    Amazing news. I’m loving this third season of Raising Hope.

  • Tommy Mickens

    It all sounds about right. Fox seems to like Ben and Kate better than the worst-rated comedies last season so it might last longer than them. I predicted last year that if Raising Hope could get to season three it’s almost guaranteed season four, so I agree with its certainty of being renewed now.

  • Dan

    The funny thing is, The Mob Doctor will likely be in this position until November 5, meaning it will not be axed before then. Fox did not renew Cleveland with American Dad and Family Guy back in May. However it needs to be taken into account that by this May Fox will have additional episodes for another season so while it will return for 2013-2014 it may end there unless Fox renews it now, given the long production season.

  • THE OLD MAN

    Thank God for the syndication gods! B&K beware.

  • TVDude

    Is it me or is Fox looking kind of bad this season? They may need to shake up things like NBC is soon. I think it will come down to how well AI does. Everything seems so down this season on Fox.

  • Dan S

    Fox is doing terrible this fall & baseball isn’t helping either. I think they’ll have a winner in Jan when the Kevin Bacon thriller The Following premieres. It would have to be a real stinker for it to fail & most likely it’ll air on Mon at 9pm where they desperately need a hit. Maybe they should cutback on Sunday animation & put in a drama or a couple comedies at 9pm.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Is it me or is Fox looking kind of bad this season?”

    FOX is not alone. FOX, ABC & CBS ratings have taken a steeper than typical dive this season vs. last season.

    http://bit.ly/PA9aBh

  • Martin

    If Raising Hope doesn’t get renewed and reach syndication numbers after FOX letting Til Death reach syndication numbers, I’ll be pissed and i’m guessing there might be a bit of uproar (if there isn’t, i’ll start it :) ).

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “If Raising Hope doesn’t get renewed and reach syndication numbers after FOX letting Til Death reach syndication numbers, I’ll be pissed and i’m guessing there might be a bit of uproar (if there isn’t, i’ll start it ”

    Same general reason, two different circumstances.

    RH is a Fox production. Til Death was Sony.

    For RH Fox sucks up any advertising shortfalls, for TD Sony probably had to give it to Fox for free.

  • Sarah

    @Dan S

    “Fox is doing terrible this fall & baseball isn’t helping either.”

    As much as I like actually getting to watch my team play now, I can’t help but feel a little sorry for Fox. I know they can’t help it because of their deal, but I bet they’re wishing they could show Bones instead. Granted, I know it’s not doing great, but it’s pulled at least a 2.0 every week so far.

  • Ultima

    @Dan S
    Maybe they should cutback on Sunday animation & put in a drama or a couple comedies at 9pm.

    Why would they break something that is clearly working?

    If FOX can make a profit off of The Simpsons without an off network syndication deal, they’re obviously making a fortune off of the syndication powerhouses that are Family Guy and American Dad.

  • Ricky

    May there not be a cataclysm, because I want to see Raising Hope survive another year! Speaking of which, how well will it do tonight, what with the debate and no NCIS to hurt it?

    If you wanna play, come and play today, the Elimination Game, yeah… http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/play-the-elimination-game/152342/

  • Tyson

    Rena, there’s no syndication market for you yet you continue. Why not the Fox sitcoms also?

  • Wright

    Good for New Girl and Bones. I wish Mob Doctor was doing better and I was hoping Fringe ratings would dramatically increase…only in my dreams I guess.

  • iggy

    I think FOX will expand their comedy hours next season, if only because their drama department is falling apart.

  • Ultima

    @iggy
    I think FOX will expand their comedy hours next season

    Where? Fridays?

  • The Hafk

    Cut back on Animation Domination? It’s probably the most stable scripted block Fox has.

    The Simpsons, even with its age and limited syndiaction, still makes money.Family Guy is a juggernaut. The adult swim syndication is almost always near/or/at the top of the cable broadcast ratings. American Dad, while not as strong as Family Guy, definitely carries its own. And after just being renewed, Bob’s Burgers is here to stay. There’s no way Fox will cancel it until it hits syndication.

    The only show they could cut possibly cut is The Cleveland Show, but I’m certain it’s going to get at least once more full season order.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Fox is a total loss for me this season. Nothing but Fringe (and a bad Fringe at that.)

  • Jon

    Why would anybody want to even buy syndication rights to raising hope anyway? If it isn’t bringing in viewers the first time around, what makes anyone think it will be a worthy investment to bring it around in reruns

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