Renew/Cancel Recap: Who Says Zombies Are Better Than Rogue Submarines and What About 'Castle?'

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

October 21st, 2012

Weekly Recap:

There was some carnage over the past week: NBC's Animal Practice was canceled and ABC announced there would be no more episodes of  Private Practice after the 13 already ordered for this season finish airing.  There was some good news too though, at least if you're a Bob's Burgers fan. Fox ordered 22 more episodes for what it's calling a fourth season. If I did the math right it's the third production cycle for the animated comedy and it will leave at least 13 episodes on the shelf and available to air after the current 2012-13 season.

Back to a "no prediction designations" tablethis week. I realize fans of the Bubble Watch will not be happy about this. Maybe I will make them happier later in the season, maybe not! If you can't stand not having any predictions, you can head on over to the Renew/Cancel Index. There's usually not much disagreement anyway, and certainly not any big disagreements.

Last year the biggest disagreement I had with the Renew/Cancel Index probably involved the CW shows. I was not so sure about The Secret Circle sooner than Bill and liked Heart of Dixie's prospects better. But by the time May rolled around the gap wasn't very big. I gave Hart Of Dixie the edge over The Secret Circle, but not a huge edge. Bill went the other way, but by the same small margin.

What About Castle?

This year Bill has already bumped Castle up to likely renewal. If there were designations this week, I'd still have it on the bubble. Castle's ratings haven't been great, or even good for ABC. But, they haven't been heinously awful either and, more importantly, there is already an off-net syndication deal in place with TNT. But, there will be over 100 episodes of Castle available by the end of this season (with the extra episode recently ordered for this season I count 105 episodes at the end of the season) and when I look at Castle's current ratings on ABC and its repeat airings on TNT, I see... a toss-up for renewal.

If Nielsen Won't Validate Your Worldview, Who Will?

On Monday after the ratings for the premiere of The Walking Dead came out, I got this e-mail:

From: Raymond Jenkins
Sent: Monday, October 15, 2012 2:54 PM
To: Robert Seidman
Subject: Proof the Nielsen Ratings Are Wrong!

Good day. Not that I needed more data to support the premise that Nielsen is a flawed and antiquated system, when I consider the ratings for the horrible, awful The Walking Dead vs. the ratings for the tremendous first rate  Last Resort (it's the best show on the air!) there's no other reasonable conclusion than that Nielsen's ratings system is horribly busted. It's not possible that so many more young adults prefer the abomination that is The Walking Dead to the wonderful Last Resort. Andre Braugher rocks!

Sincerely,

Raymond Jenkins

My reply:

From: Robert Seidman
Sent: Monday, October 15, 2012 19:36 PM
To: Raymond Jenkins
Subject: Re: Proof the Nielsen Ratings Are Wrong!

But, alas, there are in fact other reasonable conclusions. Here are a few:

  1. Not only is it possible that more people prefer to watch The Walking Dead than Last Resort, more people actually do!
  2. You can't stand that many people don't share your taste in television programming and it drives you a little crazy
  3. Andre Braugher rocks, but zombies rock much harder!

A Quick note on Revolution:

I did want to note that yes, it would certainly have been upgraded to likely renewal had there been designations this week. I was waiting for some signs of stabilization after its first four weeks went: 4.1, 3.4, 3.2, 3.0.  A 3.3 adults 18-49 rating for its fifth episode is a good sign.

Show Network Renewal Status
Private Practice ABC Cancelled/Final Season
666 Park Avenue ABC
Last Resort ABC
Scandal ABC
Neighbors, The ABC
Castle ABC
Nashville ABC
Middle, The ABC
Revenge ABC
Grey's Anatomy ABC
Once Upon A Time ABC
Modern Family ABC
Made In Jersey CBS Cancelled
Partners CBS
CSI: NY CBS
Good Wife, The CBS
Mentalist, The CBS
Vegas CBS
Elementary CBS
CSI CBS
Criminal Minds CBS
How I Met Your Mother CBS
Two and a Half Men CBS
NCIS CBS
Hawaii Five-0 CBS
Blue Bloods CBS
Person Of Interest CBS
Mike & Molly CBS
NCIS: LA CBS
2 Broke Girls CBS
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Hart Of Dixie CW
90210 CW
Nikita CW
Beauty And The Beast CW
Arrow CW
Supernatural CW
The Vampire Diaries CW
Fringe FOX Final Season
Mob Doctor, The FOX
Ben & Kate FOX
Mindy Project, The FOX
Bones FOX
Raising Hope FOX
Cleveland Show, The FOX
Glee FOX
New Girl FOX
Bob's Burgers FOX Renewed
American Dad FOX Renewed
Family Guy FOX Renewed
Simpsons, The FOX Renewed
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
Next Caller NBC Cancelled
Animal Practice NBC Cancelled
Up All Night NBC
Guys With Kids NBC
New Normal, The NBC
Chicago Fire NBC
Go On NBC
Law & Order: SVU NBC
Parks & Recreation NBC
Revolution NBC
Parenthood NBC
Grimm NBC
 
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  • Kourt

    Correction Castle wins each Monday night in total number of viewers. What isn’t good is the demo. I think ABC is happy with Castle’s numbers or they wouldn’t have given Castle an additional episode

  • Natalie

    ABC primetime isn’t exactly doing great. Grey’s, Modern Family, Once, and Revenge are the only shows that would be considered “winners” at the moment. Even their one time hit DWTS is at a series low this season.
    Just saying.

  • Christine

    Yes, Castle’s demo has gone down but so has Hawaii Five-0’s, its competitor which gets about 2 million less total viewers than Castle each week where last year they were pretty even.

    Revolution has definitely been stronger competition than either of these shows have seen in years. I’ll be interested to see how it does without the strong lead in of The Voice which is killing Dancing With the Stars (Castle’s lead in) in the demo.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    and, as ever “toss up/on the bubble” doesn’t mean “horrible ratings dog that must be put down!” (like 666 Park Ave). Just saying.

  • Carmen

    Barring a sudden drop down to say 1.5 or so, I would think Castle will be a safe bet for renewal. Next year, however, maybe not.

  • Lisa

    I would be shocked if Castle gets cancelled. Very good ratings, for ABC (or NBC), actors still on original contracts, syndication deal in place. As a fan I have no worries, next season will probably be its last, not this one.

  • kill00

    I hate when i see final season post next to one of my favorite show. Last year it was Chuck and DH, this year is Fringe and The Office :(

  • Nick

    @Natalie

    You don’t consider Suburgatory and The Middle hits?

  • Douglas from Brazil

    The big problem on NBC is The Voice.Why?Because The Voice has the best ratings this fall and of course are inflating The Revolution ratings and others shows,likely.But when The Voice out,until not returning in the Spring,how these shows will perform without a strong lead-in?
    And the Spring to come The Voice will not have its original cast and they’ll face American Idol to beat which is stronger than The X Factor as we’ve been seen.We don’t know yet how the new shows will hold up in mid-season,so in my vision is too early give some predictions maybe we’ll have to wait until February.

  • Feedback

    Due to The Walking Dead and American Horror Story’s awesome ratings, will you ever decide to go into the Cable Show Prediction game?

    I know the cable networks don’t work exactly like the broadcast networks, but some of these shows obviously have huge followings and you’ll get a bunch of hits for The Walking Dead, Game of Thrones and Boardwalk Empire predictions.

    The only trouble with those articles is that a lot of cable networks decide on their shows’ fates immediately after the premiere of the season (like Boardwalk Empire and Game of Thrones’ early renewals).

    However, a show like Suits got renewed about two months after its summer finale. So there would definitely be interest in these types of articles.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Feedback: it’s easy to predict The Walking Dead will be renewed — of course it will be! For a variety of reasons, I don’t see us ever being able to put something together for cable that allows highly accurate systematic predicting across all of the cable networks that air scripted shows.

  • The End

    Summing up your letter.

    My show is failing but another show that I hate but other people like rates higher. Thus clearly the system is broken.

    Gotta love that logic.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “However, a show like Suits got renewed about two months after its summer finale. So there would definitely be interest in these types of articles.”

    There’d certainly be interest, and we’d do it if we thought we could be reasonably good at it (and make predictions other than the obvious, like TWD), but, as Robert notes, we don’t because we haven’t figured out how.

  • Alie

    I feel like this website spins everything in order to say “Castle” is on the bubble to be cancelled next season. They could be pulling in 4.0 and 20 million viewers and still be “on the bubble”.

  • Jere

    Castle is private practice. shows that don’t do well with out its lead in . Revolution well have to see how it does without the voice. Never thought 5-0 was a good fit on monday. But the raitings are broken. Should have been fixed 10 years ago when dvrs and online became available

  • The End

    @Alie

    Robert and Bill judge things on the ratings received. In most cases they are correct.

    Unfortunatly fans in denial come on here to voice their objections but only end up looking silly when their chosen show e.g Harry’s Law ends up being cancelled after they’ve kicked up so much fuss about how apparently wrong they both are in their predictions.

    Happens all the time here.

  • Roosterhead

    Being a Castle fan I agree with the general sentiment that Castle will more than likely get at least a sixth season.

    It helps that the rest of ABC’s primetime lineup, especially at 10:00pm isn’t doing that great. For Castle, it’s a matter of being slightly “faster” than the other 10PM ABC shows which means the Cancellation Bear has some things to tide it over.

    @Robert or @Bill:

    I know it was talked about last year, but I would be very curious to see how much of a dropoff the 10PM dramas have had this year versus last year. I know that there is a lot of discussion about people wanting you to “handicap” the 10PM shows like the Friday night shows.

    Nevertheless, I think it would be interesting to see how the 10PM compares year to year.

  • Tom

    Last year, ABC renewed Body of Proof, despite middling (with DWTS) to terrible (without DWTS) ratings, with virtually no chance of syndicated backend, just to have a procedural for spackle purposes.

    Unless Fillion and Katic’s contracts have ballooned, it seems extremely likely Castle will get one more order, even if only for 13 episodes, for spackle purposes, given the advantages it has and ABC’s likely need for insurance shows.

  • were123

    so no predictions for now? Ok, I understand why, although it’s a bit weird only having the renew/cancel index. Has anyone come with an explanation of why Body of Proof was renewed last season? The only thing the reports said is that “it made money for the studio”, but how? Don’t get me wrong, I love BoP and I was happy to see it returning! I just can’t make sense of that renewal, DVR maybe? Huge C+3 rating maybe? DVD sales? Or is one of those mysteries we will never quite figure out?

  • BigFlop

    @Alie
    “I feel like this website spins everything in order to say “Castle” is on the bubble to be cancelled next season. They could be pulling in 4.0 and 20 million viewers and still be “on the bubble”.

    I AGREE with you, this site hates some tv shows like Castle and overestimates others shows like Revolution. good reviews = $$$$$$
    do you know what i mean?

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