Renew/Cancel Recap: Who Says Zombies Are Better Than Rogue Submarines and What About 'Castle?'

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

October 21st, 2012

Weekly Recap:

There was some carnage over the past week: NBC's Animal Practice was canceled and ABC announced there would be no more episodes of  Private Practice after the 13 already ordered for this season finish airing.  There was some good news too though, at least if you're a Bob's Burgers fan. Fox ordered 22 more episodes for what it's calling a fourth season. If I did the math right it's the third production cycle for the animated comedy and it will leave at least 13 episodes on the shelf and available to air after the current 2012-13 season.

Back to a "no prediction designations" tablethis week. I realize fans of the Bubble Watch will not be happy about this. Maybe I will make them happier later in the season, maybe not! If you can't stand not having any predictions, you can head on over to the Renew/Cancel Index. There's usually not much disagreement anyway, and certainly not any big disagreements.

Last year the biggest disagreement I had with the Renew/Cancel Index probably involved the CW shows. I was not so sure about The Secret Circle sooner than Bill and liked Heart of Dixie's prospects better. But by the time May rolled around the gap wasn't very big. I gave Hart Of Dixie the edge over The Secret Circle, but not a huge edge. Bill went the other way, but by the same small margin.

What About Castle?

This year Bill has already bumped Castle up to likely renewal. If there were designations this week, I'd still have it on the bubble. Castle's ratings haven't been great, or even good for ABC. But, they haven't been heinously awful either and, more importantly, there is already an off-net syndication deal in place with TNT. But, there will be over 100 episodes of Castle available by the end of this season (with the extra episode recently ordered for this season I count 105 episodes at the end of the season) and when I look at Castle's current ratings on ABC and its repeat airings on TNT, I see... a toss-up for renewal.

If Nielsen Won't Validate Your Worldview, Who Will?

On Monday after the ratings for the premiere of The Walking Dead came out, I got this e-mail:

From: Raymond Jenkins
Sent: Monday, October 15, 2012 2:54 PM
To: Robert Seidman
Subject: Proof the Nielsen Ratings Are Wrong!

Good day. Not that I needed more data to support the premise that Nielsen is a flawed and antiquated system, when I consider the ratings for the horrible, awful The Walking Dead vs. the ratings for the tremendous first rate  Last Resort (it's the best show on the air!) there's no other reasonable conclusion than that Nielsen's ratings system is horribly busted. It's not possible that so many more young adults prefer the abomination that is The Walking Dead to the wonderful Last Resort. Andre Braugher rocks!

Sincerely,

Raymond Jenkins

My reply:

From: Robert Seidman
Sent: Monday, October 15, 2012 19:36 PM
To: Raymond Jenkins
Subject: Re: Proof the Nielsen Ratings Are Wrong!

But, alas, there are in fact other reasonable conclusions. Here are a few:

  1. Not only is it possible that more people prefer to watch The Walking Dead than Last Resort, more people actually do!
  2. You can't stand that many people don't share your taste in television programming and it drives you a little crazy
  3. Andre Braugher rocks, but zombies rock much harder!

A Quick note on Revolution:

I did want to note that yes, it would certainly have been upgraded to likely renewal had there been designations this week. I was waiting for some signs of stabilization after its first four weeks went: 4.1, 3.4, 3.2, 3.0.  A 3.3 adults 18-49 rating for its fifth episode is a good sign.

Show Network Renewal Status
Private Practice ABC Cancelled/Final Season
666 Park Avenue ABC
Last Resort ABC
Scandal ABC
Neighbors, The ABC
Castle ABC
Nashville ABC
Middle, The ABC
Revenge ABC
Grey's Anatomy ABC
Once Upon A Time ABC
Modern Family ABC
Made In Jersey CBS Cancelled
Partners CBS
CSI: NY CBS
Good Wife, The CBS
Mentalist, The CBS
Vegas CBS
Elementary CBS
CSI CBS
Criminal Minds CBS
How I Met Your Mother CBS
Two and a Half Men CBS
NCIS CBS
Hawaii Five-0 CBS
Blue Bloods CBS
Person Of Interest CBS
Mike & Molly CBS
NCIS: LA CBS
2 Broke Girls CBS
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Hart Of Dixie CW
90210 CW
Nikita CW
Beauty And The Beast CW
Arrow CW
Supernatural CW
The Vampire Diaries CW
Fringe FOX Final Season
Mob Doctor, The FOX
Ben & Kate FOX
Mindy Project, The FOX
Bones FOX
Raising Hope FOX
Cleveland Show, The FOX
Glee FOX
New Girl FOX
Bob's Burgers FOX Renewed
American Dad FOX Renewed
Family Guy FOX Renewed
Simpsons, The FOX Renewed
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
Next Caller NBC Cancelled
Animal Practice NBC Cancelled
Up All Night NBC
Guys With Kids NBC
New Normal, The NBC
Chicago Fire NBC
Go On NBC
Law & Order: SVU NBC
Parks & Recreation NBC
Revolution NBC
Parenthood NBC
Grimm NBC
 
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  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    I feel like this website spins everything in order to say “Castle” is on the bubble to be cancelled next season. They could be pulling in 4.0 and 20 million viewers and still be “on the bubble”.

    Alie, a half-empty kinda gal are you? The glass is also half full. In this case, I’d say at least two-thirds full. Not only does our Renew/Cancel Index not spin things in order to say Castle will be cancelled, it says it is likely to be renewed!

  • Nick

    My thoughts-

    Private Practice ABC: Cancelled/Final Season
    666 Park Avenue ABC: Certain Cancellation
    Last Resort ABC: Bubble
    Scandal ABC: Likely Cancellation
    Neighbors, The ABC: Likely Cancellation
    Castle ABC: Bubble
    Nashville ABC: Bubble
    Middle, The ABC: Likely Renewal
    Revenge ABC: Certain Renewal
    Grey’s Anatomy ABC: Certain Renewal
    Once Upon A Time ABC: Certain Renewal
    Modern Family ABC: Certain Renewal

    Made In Jersey CBS: Cancelled
    Partners CBS: Certain Cancellation
    CSI: NY CBS: Likely Cancellation
    Good Wife, The CBS: Likely Cancellation
    Mentalist, The CBS: Bubble
    Vegas CBS: Bubble
    Elementary CBS: Likely Renewal
    CSI CBS: Likely Renewal
    Criminal Minds CBS: Certain Renewal
    How I Met Your Mother CBS: Bubble
    Two and a Half Men CBS: Likely Renewal
    NCIS CBS: Certain Renewal
    Hawaii Five-0 CBS: Certain Renewal
    Blue Bloods CBS: Certain Renewal
    Person Of Interest CBS: Certain Renewal
    Mike & Molly CBS: Certain Renewal
    NCIS: LA CBS: Certain Renewal
    2 Broke Girls CBS: Certain Renewal
    Big Bang Theory, The CBS: Renewed

    Gossip Girl CW: Final Season
    Hart Of Dixie CW: Bubble
    90210 CW: Bubble
    Nikita CW: Likely Renewal
    Beauty And The Beast CW: Bubble
    Arrow CW: Certain Renewal
    Supernatural CW: Certain Renewal
    The Vampire Diaries CW: Certain Renewal

    Fringe FOX: Final Season
    Mob Doctor, The FOX: Certain Cancellation
    Ben & Kate FOX: Likely Cancellation
    Mindy Project, The FOX: Bubble
    Bones FOX: Bubble
    Raising Hope FOX: Certain Renewal
    Cleveland Show, The FOX: Bubble
    Glee FOX: Likely Renewal
    New Girl FOX: Certain Renewal
    Bob’s Burgers FOX: Renewed
    American Dad FOX: Renewed
    Family Guy FOX: Renewed
    Simpsons, The FOX :Renewed
    30 Rock NBC: Final Season
    The Office NBC: Final Season
    Next Caller NBC: Cancelled
    Animal Practice NBC: Cancelled
    Up All Night NBC: Certain Cancellation
    Guys With Kids NBC : Likely Cancellation
    New Normal, The NBC : Likely Renewal
    Chicago Fire NBC : Bubble
    Go On NBC : Certain Renewal
    Law & Order: SVU NBC : Likely Renewal
    Parks & Recreation NBC : Bubble
    Revolution NBC : Likely Renewal
    Parenthood NBC : Likely Renewal
    Grimm NBC : Certain Renewal

    You forgot SUBURGATORY!!!!!

  • Kourt

    Castle is a big money maker for ABC it would be dumb for ABC to cancel the show. Yeah Castle has tanked in the demo but the 2.0 is not that far off from last year. When you look at total number of viewers Castle beats shows like Nashville and The middle. I see Castle being renewed for Season 6 but only for like 13 episodes

  • Ville

    I think it’s a general consensus that this season Castle has been great so far. Now that the showrunners don’t have to keep coming up with angsty plotlines and secrets in order to keep the two leads apart, they have gotten back to making a good fun show, the way it was in the first two seasons, only better now. :) I hope that some of the casual viewers who left the show during seasons 3 and 4 may come back now as word spreads around. I’m not saying they will, I’m just hoping.

  • madbengalsfan85

    Castle being on the bubble makes sense if you consider the fact that ratings are low and it has achieved its major benchmarks (syndication, 100 episodes). Personally, I think Castle gets renewed, but I suspect next season will be the last

  • Kourt

    I am worried about what the ratings will be for Probable Cause coming off the 2 week break but when I think about it ALL Monday night shows are off this Monday because of the debate so it will be interesting to see the ratings for Hawaii 5-0, Revolution and Dancing With the Stars. I hope the drama of Probable Cause will reel people back into the show. All fans of Castle can do is just watch the show and leave the rest to ABC. If ABC is happy with the current ratings then awesome.

  • Tessa

    I miss the Bubble Watch. It provided a place to chat (read: cage fight) with fans of shows across all networks. Everywhere else we’re divided either by night or by network.

  • Nick

    What’s a rougue submarine?
    ;-)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @Nick, one with very red cheeks? ;)

    Fixed.

  • Cyrax86

    Castle is a lot safer now with all the new dramas more or less flopping and Private Practice cancelled. It will be in trouble only if the 3 midseason dramas AND Body of Proof are going to do better but that’s not exactly a reasonable scenario, is it?

  • DW

    if castle is on the bubble then 5-0 has to be on it also since its ratings have been awful this season. i know its come back up but that was a bad fall it had its first three weeks.

  • chris

    Sounds like Raymond Jenkins is a bitter, bitter man.

  • wallaby2012

    I love BOTH shows!

  • Nick

    Suburgatory isn’t in the table. Can you fix that?

  • Nick

    @DW

    if castle is on the bubble then 5-0 has to be on it also since its ratings have been awful this season. i know its come back up but that was a bad fall it had its first three weeks.

    Hawaii 5-0 is certain to be renewed brcause it’s close to the 88 episodes needed to activate its syndication contract.

  • Anna Clarkwood

    I have a 2 suggestions that I hope you take to heart. Sorry for the length of the post.

    For anyone (Robert, Bill, or Sara), how about a “Rookie Report Card” list? Updated on Saturday aka a slow day and it’s not judgement at all based. It would include all series from all major networks that are new to the current season both fall and spring/replacement. For the spring/replacement series the “Notes” section will just say “Yet to premiere”. For the Fall shows, the “Notes” section can include stuff such as “Canceled 10/18 Will Air All 13eps” or “Full Season “22ep” Order” or “2 addition scripts ordered” or even “More guest actors announced”. A Third column could/should list how many episodes are set to air, 13, 16, 22, 24 etc.

    Basically, it’s a Rookie Only collection of the most important news for each show gathered in one place no need for readers to search the archives of the past week/months. It’s not a true “Will this show make it to a 2nd season?” even though “full season order” and “cancelled” notes make it appear that way. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be sorted like that anyways. This season Revolution probably tops that list, for now at least. Elementary, Vegas, Go On, Nashville & Chicago Fire (Arrow/CW is too early) are all fighting for 2nd, I think.

    There will be a notation stating that just b/c episodes or scripts are ordered, episodes are shot, doesn’t mean that they will actually air as scheduled “time/day” or even at all. This is just the latest information about where each Rookie Show stands.

    Bill’s analysis has “F” for Friday shows. How about including “R” for Rookie shows? We all know that Rookie shows have a much lesser threshold than even Friday shows in regards to a 2nd season. I also like the “10PM” idea as there is no way that any of those get’s a 3 and probably not a 2.5. Though, CBS esp, wants 2.5’s for most other hours and days. Though, pretty soon we leave the door open for “TH” or Thursday aka the biggest day for everyone but ABC @ 8PM. Heck, 2.5 is getting harder and harder for virtually all channels save the very top tier.

    Bottomline, a simple “R” for Rookie Shows on the Renew/Cancel Index would be nice.

    To sum up:
    1. A “Rookie Report Card” is a place where we can go to get a collection of status of where all the Rookie only shows stand. Not just cancelled, suffering, bubble, or strong but also full season order, mores scripts ordered, guest actors and also Replacement shows which helps us know just how much chance the Fall shows have to stick around.

    2. A simple “R” designation for the Report/Cancel Index (Tuesday) to signify Rookie/Freshman/1st year series from the rest. “R”‘s can’t get low whereas 3rd years esp can. The few 2nd years that exist would be nice to signify as well but I don’t want to clutter it up too much.

  • Silent Hunter

    Think ‘Castle’ will get a sixth season, but they’ll choose to wrap after that. Go while it’s good.

  • Samunto

    ‘Castle’ is quite fragile. Remember that it perfoms very very poorly around January when it has ‘The Bachelor’ as Lead-in. Now, see how much it’s dropped with DWTS falling. Expect even bigger losses in January when ‘Bachelor’ is back.

    But…… i still think Castle will probably be renewed but it might depend on how it does in the spring and how ABC’s pilots will look like.
    But seriously, ABC doesn’t have a 10pm show doing really well. All are under/close to a 2.0 sooo… Castle is a keeper.

  • Dan

    Castle is in no trouble. ABC can always use it as long as they have no breakout drama hits and with PP ending and Scandal Not doing that great they have more of a reason to keep it. Plus ABC owns it so more episodes equals more money. You guys are reading wayy to much into this, Castle will be renewed no doubt.

  • Dan

    Also ABC is in an opposite situation as CBS Where CBS has too many hits and axes the lower rated ones that are still highly rated, ABC has a lot of low rated shows and renews the higher of those shows. Greys OUAT, Revenge and Castle are safe for next season as long as all the other shows are still low rated.

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