Weekly Recap:
There was some carnage over the past week: NBC's Animal Practice was canceled and ABC announced there would be no more episodes of Private Practice after the 13 already ordered for this season finish airing. There was some good news too though, at least if you're a Bob's Burgers fan. Fox ordered 22 more episodes for what it's calling a fourth season. If I did the math right it's the third production cycle for the animated comedy and it will leave at least 13 episodes on the shelf and available to air after the current 2012-13 season.
Back to a "no prediction designations" tablethis week. I realize fans of the Bubble Watch will not be happy about this. Maybe I will make them happier later in the season, maybe not! If you can't stand not having any predictions, you can head on over to the Renew/Cancel Index. There's usually not much disagreement anyway, and certainly not any big disagreements.
Last year the biggest disagreement I had with the Renew/Cancel Index probably involved the CW shows. I was not so sure about The Secret Circle sooner than Bill and liked Heart of Dixie's prospects better. But by the time May rolled around the gap wasn't very big. I gave Hart Of Dixie the edge over The Secret Circle, but not a huge edge. Bill went the other way, but by the same small margin.
What About Castle?
This year Bill has already bumped Castle up to likely renewal. If there were designations this week, I'd still have it on the bubble. Castle's ratings haven't been great, or even good for ABC. But, they haven't been heinously awful either and, more importantly, there is already an off-net syndication deal in place with TNT. But, there will be over 100 episodes of Castle available by the end of this season (with the extra episode recently ordered for this season I count 105 episodes at the end of the season) and when I look at Castle's current ratings on ABC and its repeat airings on TNT, I see... a toss-up for renewal.
If Nielsen Won't Validate Your Worldview, Who Will?
On Monday after the ratings for the premiere of The Walking Dead came out, I got this e-mail:
From: Raymond Jenkins
Sent: Monday, October 15, 2012 2:54 PM
To: Robert Seidman
Subject: Proof the Nielsen Ratings Are Wrong!Good day. Not that I needed more data to support the premise that Nielsen is a flawed and antiquated system, when I consider the ratings for the horrible, awful The Walking Dead vs. the ratings for the tremendous first rate Last Resort (it's the best show on the air!) there's no other reasonable conclusion than that Nielsen's ratings system is horribly busted. It's not possible that so many more young adults prefer the abomination that is The Walking Dead to the wonderful Last Resort. Andre Braugher rocks!
Sincerely,
Raymond Jenkins
My reply:
From: Robert Seidman
Sent: Monday, October 15, 2012 19:36 PM
To: Raymond Jenkins
Subject: Re: Proof the Nielsen Ratings Are Wrong!But, alas, there are in fact other reasonable conclusions. Here are a few:
- Not only is it possible that more people prefer to watch The Walking Dead than Last Resort, more people actually do!
- You can't stand that many people don't share your taste in television programming and it drives you a little crazy
- Andre Braugher rocks, but zombies rock much harder!
A Quick note on Revolution:
I did want to note that yes, it would certainly have been upgraded to likely renewal had there been designations this week. I was waiting for some signs of stabilization after its first four weeks went: 4.1, 3.4, 3.2, 3.0. A 3.3 adults 18-49 rating for its fifth episode is a good sign.
| Show | Network | Renewal Status |
| Private Practice | ABC | Cancelled/Final Season |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | |
| Last Resort | ABC | |
| Scandal | ABC | |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | |
| Castle | ABC | |
| Nashville | ABC | |
| Middle, The | ABC | |
| Revenge | ABC | |
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | |
| Modern Family | ABC | |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Cancelled |
| Partners | CBS | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | |
| Good Wife, The | CBS | |
| Mentalist, The | CBS | |
| Vegas | CBS | |
| Elementary | CBS | |
| CSI | CBS | |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | |
| NCIS | CBS | |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | |
| NCIS: LA | CBS | |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | |
| Big Bang Theory, The | CBS | Renewed |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final Season |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | |
| 90210 | CW | |
| Nikita | CW | |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | |
| Arrow | CW | |
| Supernatural | CW | |
| The Vampire Diaries | CW | |
| Fringe | FOX | Final Season |
| Mob Doctor, The | FOX | |
| Ben & Kate | FOX | |
| Mindy Project, The | FOX | |
| Bones | FOX | |
| Raising Hope | FOX | |
| Cleveland Show, The | FOX | |
| Glee | FOX | |
| New Girl | FOX | |
| Bob's Burgers | FOX | Renewed |
| American Dad | FOX | Renewed |
| Family Guy | FOX | Renewed |
| Simpsons, The | FOX | Renewed |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
| Next Caller | NBC | Cancelled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Cancelled |
| Up All Night | NBC | |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | |
| New Normal, The | NBC | |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | |
| Go On | NBC | |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | |
| Revolution | NBC | |
| Parenthood | NBC | |
| Grimm | NBC | |
@Douglas
The big problem on NBC is The Voice.Why?Because The Voice has the best ratings this fall and of course are inflating The Revolution ratings and others shows,likely.But when The Voice out,until not returning in the Spring,how these shows will perform without a strong lead-in?
What makes you think that NBC will be airing original episodes of their Voice lead-outs while it is on hiatus?
@were3- Body of Proof probably got renewed because it had good ratings in its last few episodes. The opposite of Secret Circle, in other words.
When is the Bubble Watch starting this season?
@Big Toe
There isn’t really a bubble watch this season. We’ve got this post instead.
Didn’t know where to put this, decided here since this thread is active at the moment.
Anyway just read on another site that the Dish/AMC dispute has been settled…just in time, of course for tonight’s Walking Dead Ep.
I imagine there will be some cheering from WD fans who were affected……
@Ultima,
So we won’t see original episodes between mid-December and March?That’s makes no sense.
With all the new NBC shows, I’ve been wondering how they’re going to put together that mid-season schedule. Here’s my theory on what they should do:
Sundays
8- Infamous
9- Do No Harm
10- Dracula
Although the number of episodes each show will have haven’t been revealed, they will definitely be around the 8-12 range. NBC can try putting on a drama-heavy Sunday to compete with ABC’s. After all these shows are done, NBC can replace them with “Ready for Love”, “Fashion Star” and “The Apprentice” for a full night of reality competitions.
Mondays
8- The Voice
10- Revolution
Obviously, they have a solid night. This doesn’t need tweaking.
Tuesdays
8- The Voice
9- Go On, The New Normal
10- Parenthood
Same goes here. They have a nice lineup with decent ratings.
Wednesday
8- The Biggest Loser
9- Law and Order: SVU
10- Chicago Fire
I don’t follow The Biggest Loser, but from what I recall, this show starts 2 hours and then goes to 1 hour in the middle of its season. They can keep SVU and Chicago Fire on hiatus and have them come back when Biggest Loser cuts down to an hour. While Biggest Loser is 2 hours, they can follow it with Rock Center.
Thursday
8- Community, 1600 Penn
9- The Office, Parks and Recreation
10- Smash
They should keep Community on the shelf until January so they can debut it along with 1600 Penn. If 1600 Penn fails dramatically, they can replace it with whatever episodes are left of Whitney. If not, they should keep Whitney on the shelf and wait until both Community and Penn end their 13-episode runs so Howie Mendell’s White Elephant can take its place.
Fridays
8- Grimm
9- Crossbones
10- Dateline NBC
Crossbones sounds like a good companion show for Grimm. They should move Grimm to 8pm so Crossbones can get a solid lead-in. The only problem with that is that Grimm in itself doesn’t perform that well. If Crossbones goes way below Grimm’s ratings, they can move Grimm back into its original spot and couple Off their Rockers with Whitney here.
If all these shows are hits, I don’t see how NBC is going to get Save Me, Hannibal and The Winner Is… on the network. Maybe during The Voice’s hiatus? I don’t know, but it just doesn’t seem like they have enough space for all the shows they want to debut.
I bet we’ll see some of these go into the summer or even premiere as summer shows.
@Douglas from Brazil
Between Mid-December and March they can air a variety of shows including “Infamous”, “Dracula”, “Off their Rockers”, “Fashion Star”, and “Hannibal” which all have 13 or less episodes this season.
A few weeks ago I was saying castle was probably looking at a short final season for midseason replacement next year. As it stands now, I am changing my predictions to believe Castle will see another full season. Three main reasons:
- Syndication: the shows it is fighting for renewal with are all young shows that are far away from syndication. Castle, on the other hand, already benefits from syndication, but has yet to reach the year in which contracts and stuff has to be renegotiated, which means it’s probably in one of its most profitable phases (taking ratings out of the equation) since it has syndication income without the old show costs sinking in
- Relative ratings are slighly better than the other shows and i would be surprised to see a big inversion of this trend. It’s only a marginal effect, and i would not make this the deciding factor, but still.
- DWTS has collapsed, so i think we will be looking at a very unpredictable upfronts come may for ABC. I have no idea what they will do it, but if they replace it next year, at least during fall (as they should), then that’s 3 additional hours in the week that get free. Even if they put some reality show somewhere in there, I still think this will create some leeway for bubble dramas, such as Castle. In addition, Castle is the only other show on the night DWTS is mostly on, which is Monday, so they are likely to want some stability there in case Dancing doesn’t come back at all.
Castle is my favorite show, so I’m obviously hoping it gets renewed for a full sixth season. But I’d be okay with it ending after that. Six years is more than amazing for tv shows in today’s world. And Nathan Fillion has talked about Castle going on strong, I agree with him on that. I’d hate to see the writing and everything get weak. Six seasons would be fabulous, the show is so wonderful right now!
Honestly, I think Castle will do just fine and will get another season. ABC has shows on their network that do way worse. I don’t really have any proof, solid evidence, or really anything to back up my opinion other than the fact that I have a “gut feeling” that it will get renewed. I just don’t buy that ABC would cancel Castle when they have shows on their network that are doing worse. Just my opinion, though.
@Feedback,
Revolution,Go On,New Normal get all full season orders!
666 Park Ave is a very well acted thriller . The production values are quite high as well. Each new episode reveals more eerie details about the characters and the mysterious building. I have feeling the ratings will begin to pick up soon. Horror /thrillers have been popular the last couple of seasons. ABC would be wise to help it find a loyal audience.
The big problem on NBC is The Voice.Why?Because The Voice has the best ratings this fall and of course are inflating The Revolution ratings and others shows,likely.But when The Voice out,until not returning in the Spring,how these shows will perform without a strong lead-in?
I’m not discounting the value of the strong lead in that Revolutions gets from The Voice, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it will fall precipitously. A good lead in certainly can get a show views when it starts out, but then the show itself has to hold onto those eyes. We have already seen B&TB get great premier numbers after TVD and then drop horribly in week two. HIMYM still has pretty good ratings, although it is not the powerhouse it once was, but Partners is failing miserably. OUAT had good numbers and leads into Revenge which has fairly strong numbers and then 666 Park Ave. plunges. Last year Supernatural followed Nikita, one of the CW’s lowest rated shows and still rose to be the CW’s second highest rated scripted show. Lead in helps, but Revolution has settled in as the highest rated show at 10:00. Some of that rating is because people want to watch Revolution. So saying that it will necessarily tank when The Voice is over has yet to be determined.
Any 10pm show that holds a 2.0 rating will be renewed.
Fact.
I am a HUGE Castle fan but I can see the logic of still being the bubble. 1)Castle ratings have dropped but what 10pm show’s rating’s hasn’t besides the Revolution
2)Castle usually tanks with the Bachelor as a lead in. But the Bachelor usually gets around a 2.5-2.8 like it did last season it might be good for Castle to have as a lead in.
BUT I would have to say the way things are going at ABC Castle is the safest 10pm drama right now. PP ending, Nashville still unproven, Scandal gets lower ratings. Unless their new drama pilots prove successful I think Castle get’s renewed.
@ Feedback
Here is what I suggest:
MONDAY (Mid- Dec to Mid-Feb)
8- Ready for Love
9- The Winner Is
10- Howie Mandel’s White Elephant
MONDAY (Mid-February to May)
8- The Voice
10- Revolution
TUESDAY
8- The Voice
9- Go On
9:30- The New Normal
10- Parenthood / (in March) Infamous
WEDNESDAY
8- The Biggest Loser
9- Whitney
9:30- GWK
10- SVU
THURSDAY
8- Community
8:30- 1600 Penn
9- The Office
9:30- Parks & Rec
10- Crossbones
FRIDAY
8- Grimm
9- Hannibal
10- Dateline OR Rock Center
SUNDAY
7- Surprise with Jenny McCarthy
8- The Celebrity Apprentice
9- Fashion Star
10- Smash
Use Off Their Rockers, Save Me, and Dracula to replace low-rated shows. Burn off Do No Harm in the summer.
@Douglas
So we won’t see original episodes between mid-December and March?That’s makes no sense.
Where have you seen a March premiere date for The Voice? I expect them to start it in February again, leaving only a six week break between cycles.
NBC has a lot of shows, but they also have a lot of options.
Crossbones/Dracula/Hannibal are all 10 episode orders. They could put them in the gap left by The Voice, or let 2 of them to share a timeslot, or put one of them after Parenthood finishes its season.
I doubt NBC will launch 1600 Penn after Community on Thursday, unless they want to ensure that 1600 Penn has a quick death. Community was much stronger show when Perfect Couples and The Paul Reiser Show both flopped in the 8:30 Thursday timeslot two seasons ago. Thursday at 8 is a completely brutal timeslot for NBC’s comedies with the CBS comedy juggernauts as competition. Animal Practice may have bombed, but Wednesday 8pm seems like much more fruitful ground.
@Anna Clarkwood,
We all know that Rookie shows have a much lesser threshold than even Friday shows in regards to a 2nd season.
I don’t know that…. Do you have any evidence to support that theory?