Renew/Cancel Recap: Who Says Zombies Are Better Than Rogue Submarines and What About 'Castle?'

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

October 21st, 2012

Weekly Recap:

There was some carnage over the past week: NBC's Animal Practice was canceled and ABC announced there would be no more episodes of  Private Practice after the 13 already ordered for this season finish airing.  There was some good news too though, at least if you're a Bob's Burgers fan. Fox ordered 22 more episodes for what it's calling a fourth season. If I did the math right it's the third production cycle for the animated comedy and it will leave at least 13 episodes on the shelf and available to air after the current 2012-13 season.

Back to a "no prediction designations" tablethis week. I realize fans of the Bubble Watch will not be happy about this. Maybe I will make them happier later in the season, maybe not! If you can't stand not having any predictions, you can head on over to the Renew/Cancel Index. There's usually not much disagreement anyway, and certainly not any big disagreements.

Last year the biggest disagreement I had with the Renew/Cancel Index probably involved the CW shows. I was not so sure about The Secret Circle sooner than Bill and liked Heart of Dixie's prospects better. But by the time May rolled around the gap wasn't very big. I gave Hart Of Dixie the edge over The Secret Circle, but not a huge edge. Bill went the other way, but by the same small margin.

What About Castle?

This year Bill has already bumped Castle up to likely renewal. If there were designations this week, I'd still have it on the bubble. Castle's ratings haven't been great, or even good for ABC. But, they haven't been heinously awful either and, more importantly, there is already an off-net syndication deal in place with TNT. But, there will be over 100 episodes of Castle available by the end of this season (with the extra episode recently ordered for this season I count 105 episodes at the end of the season) and when I look at Castle's current ratings on ABC and its repeat airings on TNT, I see... a toss-up for renewal.

If Nielsen Won't Validate Your Worldview, Who Will?

On Monday after the ratings for the premiere of The Walking Dead came out, I got this e-mail:

From: Raymond Jenkins
Sent: Monday, October 15, 2012 2:54 PM
To: Robert Seidman
Subject: Proof the Nielsen Ratings Are Wrong!

Good day. Not that I needed more data to support the premise that Nielsen is a flawed and antiquated system, when I consider the ratings for the horrible, awful The Walking Dead vs. the ratings for the tremendous first rate  Last Resort (it's the best show on the air!) there's no other reasonable conclusion than that Nielsen's ratings system is horribly busted. It's not possible that so many more young adults prefer the abomination that is The Walking Dead to the wonderful Last Resort. Andre Braugher rocks!

Sincerely,

Raymond Jenkins

My reply:

From: Robert Seidman
Sent: Monday, October 15, 2012 19:36 PM
To: Raymond Jenkins
Subject: Re: Proof the Nielsen Ratings Are Wrong!

But, alas, there are in fact other reasonable conclusions. Here are a few:

  1. Not only is it possible that more people prefer to watch The Walking Dead than Last Resort, more people actually do!
  2. You can't stand that many people don't share your taste in television programming and it drives you a little crazy
  3. Andre Braugher rocks, but zombies rock much harder!

A Quick note on Revolution:

I did want to note that yes, it would certainly have been upgraded to likely renewal had there been designations this week. I was waiting for some signs of stabilization after its first four weeks went: 4.1, 3.4, 3.2, 3.0.  A 3.3 adults 18-49 rating for its fifth episode is a good sign.

Show Network Renewal Status
Private Practice ABC Cancelled/Final Season
666 Park Avenue ABC
Last Resort ABC
Scandal ABC
Neighbors, The ABC
Castle ABC
Nashville ABC
Middle, The ABC
Revenge ABC
Grey's Anatomy ABC
Once Upon A Time ABC
Modern Family ABC
Made In Jersey CBS Cancelled
Partners CBS
CSI: NY CBS
Good Wife, The CBS
Mentalist, The CBS
Vegas CBS
Elementary CBS
CSI CBS
Criminal Minds CBS
How I Met Your Mother CBS
Two and a Half Men CBS
NCIS CBS
Hawaii Five-0 CBS
Blue Bloods CBS
Person Of Interest CBS
Mike & Molly CBS
NCIS: LA CBS
2 Broke Girls CBS
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Hart Of Dixie CW
90210 CW
Nikita CW
Beauty And The Beast CW
Arrow CW
Supernatural CW
The Vampire Diaries CW
Fringe FOX Final Season
Mob Doctor, The FOX
Ben & Kate FOX
Mindy Project, The FOX
Bones FOX
Raising Hope FOX
Cleveland Show, The FOX
Glee FOX
New Girl FOX
Bob's Burgers FOX Renewed
American Dad FOX Renewed
Family Guy FOX Renewed
Simpsons, The FOX Renewed
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
Next Caller NBC Cancelled
Animal Practice NBC Cancelled
Up All Night NBC
Guys With Kids NBC
New Normal, The NBC
Chicago Fire NBC
Go On NBC
Law & Order: SVU NBC
Parks & Recreation NBC
Revolution NBC
Parenthood NBC
Grimm NBC
 
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  • Ultima

    @Oliver
    Crossbones/Dracula/Hannibal are all 10 episode orders. They could put them in the gap left by The Voice

    Where are people getting these mid-March start dates for The Voice from? Link?

  • omabin

    Also, still in regards to ABC, and looking now at midseason, rather than next year. With PP ending, and with three dramas coming in at midseason, they will need to cut out two other shows. If Scandal gets, as Shonda has been saying that she wants (either it being PR spin or what) just a 13 episode season, that would mean that either Last Resort or 666 will make it to a full season.

  • Oliver

    @Ultima

    No-one knows the premiere date of The Voice, people can only speculate.

    Why would they repeat a February start date that was dictated by the Super Bowl? It makes much more sense to either premiere slightly earlier (to compete with Idol) or later (so they can fit some decent programming in the gap).

  • Douglas from Brazil

    @Ultima,

    The 4th cycle of The Voice will premiere in Spring as well NBC told us right?
    Remember early this year that The Voice premiered right after SuperBowl(early Feb.) and finished its run in early May(to be exactly May 8).If to premiere in March then it to end later May or early June as well they premiered its 1st cycle.

  • rehabber

    Where is Emily Owens, MD on CW? I did watch the pilot, but won’t watch any more of it, was not impressed and only watched because Justin Hartley was in it. Again not impressed. ;)

  • Survivor Fan

    @ Oliver

    If they want to finish the season in May, they will have to start it by mid-February. They could start it in January and extend the season. Then, shows like The Winner Is could be used in the summer.

  • Doug

    I think that there are a few shows on ABC that might be a breather just because the network is dealing with the DWTS collapse. I have no doubt that if DWTS returns in the spring it will be in the high 1s, which is far too low to take up so much valuable real-estate. I see it going to 1 cycle next season if it doesn’t move up. Should that happen, it likely means that Castle is safe as ABC probably won’t want to rebuilt the entire Monday night line-up at one time.

  • Ultima

    @Oliver
    Why would they repeat a February start date that was dictated by the Super Bowl?

    Because they want it to air during February sweeps and not run into the summer?

    The start of February sweeps until the end of May sweeps is 16 weeks. Last season, The Voice ran for 14 weeks and this fall it is running 15 weeks.

    If anything, I would think a premiere earlier than 6 February is much more likely than a premiere later than that.

  • lll

    @rehabber
    I want to know that myself. Emily Owens aired their show this week. What order will it be on the bubble index?

  • Douglas from Brazil

    @Percysowner,

    I may be wrong about Revolution but as we’ve seen in past few years 10pm dramas for NBC all flopped.Maybe this season is diferent,maybe don’t.With The Voice as lead-in last season Smash crushed at ratings and premiered well low compared to Revolution.Probably Revolution will emerge as OUAT was last season as n#1 new drama.But until The Voice out,we don’t know.

  • Douglas from Brazil

    @Ultima,

    How you know that NBC will run The Voice in February sweeps?

  • Douglas from Brazil

    @Ultima,

    What’s your problem with mid-March start?

  • mulscu

    you know i watched the first 3 eps.of last resort.an i really wanted to like it.but in the third ep i gave up.an what i found out about the characters was even though AB does indeed rock i found the rest of the cast lacking an i in the end gave up because i just did not care.an if i cant get to that point of caring about the charecters i find watching a waste of time.

  • Ultima

    @Douglas
    How you know that NBC will run The Voice in February sweeps?

    Because The Voice is their highest rated show and it boosts the ratings of everything airing with it?

  • Ultima

    @Douglas
    What’s your problem with mid-March start?

    They don’t have their #1 show on during February sweeps.

    They don’t have their #1 show airing all of its episodes during the broadcast season (it would end during the summer).

  • omabin

    @Doug,

    I agree 100%

  • D. Fernandes

    Robert and Bill, still on the first page topic of the site making some sort of prediction on the cable shows, don’t you think that at least on basic cable the metric would be similar? And even if it would’t be as efficient as renew/cancel metrics, where you guys have an almost perfect batting average, don’t you think it would be something that would interest viewers? The aforementioned Suits renew took two months, there is no word yet on Leverage or Hell on wheels. That could make for some interesting topics, even if your batting average would drop a little. Best regards, love the site.

  • Douglas from Brazil

    @Ultima,

    Even The Voice premieres in February NBC won’t have their #1 show because of American Idol.I don’t see The Voice beating AI in ratings.

  • chrisss

    @ Douglas from Brazil

    Not beating Idol doesn’t stop The Voice from being NBC’s highest rated show…

  • Ultima

    @Douglas
    Even The Voice premieres in February NBC won’t have their #1 show because of American Idol.I don’t see The Voice beating AI in ratings.

    ???

    The Voice is NBC’s #1 show (excluding football, obviously). American Idol has nothing to do with that.

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