Renew/Cancel Recap: Who Says Zombies Are Better Than Rogue Submarines and What About 'Castle?'

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

October 21st, 2012

Weekly Recap:

There was some carnage over the past week: NBC's Animal Practice was canceled and ABC announced there would be no more episodes of  Private Practice after the 13 already ordered for this season finish airing.  There was some good news too though, at least if you're a Bob's Burgers fan. Fox ordered 22 more episodes for what it's calling a fourth season. If I did the math right it's the third production cycle for the animated comedy and it will leave at least 13 episodes on the shelf and available to air after the current 2012-13 season.

Back to a "no prediction designations" tablethis week. I realize fans of the Bubble Watch will not be happy about this. Maybe I will make them happier later in the season, maybe not! If you can't stand not having any predictions, you can head on over to the Renew/Cancel Index. There's usually not much disagreement anyway, and certainly not any big disagreements.

Last year the biggest disagreement I had with the Renew/Cancel Index probably involved the CW shows. I was not so sure about The Secret Circle sooner than Bill and liked Heart of Dixie's prospects better. But by the time May rolled around the gap wasn't very big. I gave Hart of Dixie the edge over The Secret Circle, but not a huge edge. Bill went the other way, but by the same small margin.

What About Castle?

This year Bill has already bumped Castle up to likely renewal. If there were designations this week, I'd still have it on the bubble. Castle's ratings haven't been great, or even good for ABC. But, they haven't been heinously awful either and, more importantly, there is already an off-net syndication deal in place with TNT. But, there will be over 100 episodes of Castle available by the end of this season (with the extra episode recently ordered for this season I count 105 episodes at the end of the season) and when I look at Castle's current ratings on ABC and its repeat airings on TNT, I see... a toss-up for renewal.

If Nielsen Won't Validate Your Worldview, Who Will?

On Monday after the ratings for the premiere of The Walking Dead came out, I got this e-mail:

From: Raymond Jenkins
Sent: Monday, October 15, 2012 2:54 PM
To: Robert Seidman
Subject: Proof the Nielsen Ratings Are Wrong!

Good day. Not that I needed more data to support the premise that Nielsen is a flawed and antiquated system, when I consider the ratings for the horrible, awful The Walking Dead vs. the ratings for the tremendous first rate  Last Resort (it's the best show on the air!) there's no other reasonable conclusion than that Nielsen's ratings system is horribly busted. It's not possible that so many more young adults prefer the abomination that is The Walking Dead to the wonderful Last Resort. Andre Braugher rocks!


Raymond Jenkins

My reply:

From: Robert Seidman
Sent: Monday, October 15, 2012 19:36 PM
To: Raymond Jenkins
Subject: Re: Proof the Nielsen Ratings Are Wrong!

But, alas, there are in fact other reasonable conclusions. Here are a few:

  1. Not only is it possible that more people prefer to watch The Walking Dead than Last Resort, more people actually do!
  2. You can't stand that many people don't share your taste in television programming and it drives you a little crazy
  3. Andre Braugher rocks, but zombies rock much harder!

A Quick note on Revolution:

I did want to note that yes, it would certainly have been upgraded to likely renewal had there been designations this week. I was waiting for some signs of stabilization after its first four weeks went: 4.1, 3.4, 3.2, 3.0.  A 3.3 adults 18-49 rating for its fifth episode is a good sign.

Show Network Renewal Status
Private Practice ABC Cancelled/Final Season
666 Park Avenue ABC
Last Resort ABC
Scandal ABC
Neighbors, The ABC
Castle ABC
Nashville ABC
Middle, The ABC
Revenge ABC
Grey's Anatomy ABC
Once Upon a Time ABC
Modern Family ABC
Made in Jersey CBS Cancelled
Partners CBS
Good Wife, The CBS
Mentalist, The CBS
Vegas CBS
Elementary CBS
Criminal Minds CBS
How I Met Your Mother CBS
Two and a Half Men CBS
Hawaii Five-0 CBS
Blue Bloods CBS
Person of Interest CBS
Mike & Molly CBS
2 Broke Girls CBS
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Hart of Dixie CW
90210 CW
Nikita CW
Beauty and the Beast CW
Arrow CW
Supernatural CW
The Vampire Diaries CW
Fringe FOX Final Season
Mob Doctor, The FOX
Ben & Kate FOX
Mindy Project, The FOX
Bones FOX
Raising Hope FOX
Cleveland Show, The FOX
Glee FOX
New Girl FOX
Bob's Burgers FOX Renewed
American Dad FOX Renewed
Family Guy FOX Renewed
Simpsons, The FOX Renewed
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
Next Caller NBC Cancelled
Animal Practice NBC Cancelled
Up All Night NBC
Guys with Kids NBC
New Normal, The NBC
Chicago Fire NBC
Law & Order: SVU NBC
Parks & Recreation NBC
Revolution NBC
Parenthood NBC
Grimm NBC
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  • Marlene

    Why is everyone afraid of Castle dropping so much in demo when this cycle of DWTS ends? It’s been holding up against it and sometimes not even losing demo against the demo of DWTS, so who’s to say it will drop once DWTS ends?

  • chimpo

    I liked the excuse that Castle will drop in viewers when Bachelor will start.

    Last season it was gaining 2.5-3 milion viewers over Bachelor and was doing

  • TJeff

    As a Last Resort fan, does the Nielsen system have some flaws? Definitely, there is no perfect system. Did the flaws hurt LR and bump TWD? Possibly. Did LR actually rate more than TWD? Quite unlikely, you can’t ignore that hugh gap, it may be smaller, but still hugh.
    But yet again, show quality doesn’t always equal the show rating. Many good shows rated poorly, like Firefly. I for one quit watching TWD this year, or maybe just I don’t have such great taste. And Last Resort is the best rookie show, at least for me.

  • C Whitty

    @Anna Clarkwood

    I recognise your points and I do feel with its age Castle is performing well, Due to its longevity I am actually looking forward to starting to watch this show from season 1, the studio may even make some dvd money from me! Nonetheless I cant see another 100 episodes.

  • Mee Maw

    The Last Resort is horrible. I hope it will be cancelled. And Raymond Jenkins is a moron.

  • Michael

    Any way to add a summer show to the list? I would love to hear your/other’s thoughts on SYTYCD which has been crashing (creatively and ratings-wise) for three years, but keeps getting picked up for Fox.

  • Laarnie

    I certainly think that Castle will be renewed for another season and get a full 22 episode because when you think of it,Castle is the only 10pm ABC show that is doing good and it is actually the top scripted show on Mondays so,it’s likely to get renewed.And since ABC ordered another episode for it,it seems that they are happy with Castle’s ratings. You are reading waaaaaay too much into this.

  • Dean-W

    Castle writers made the biggest mistake of the Show when they decided to create a couple Castle/Beckett (of course everyone was waiting for it) but look at the ratings ! Season five is too soon for this kind of relationship (The Bones/Booth couple started in season 7, DiNozzo/Ziva is still not in place…). When a couple is created in a Show it means the cancelation is coming !

  • Shepherd

    @Robert @Amanda @Bill

    AMC and dish have settled their dispute.

    Didn’t know where else to post this.

  • AppleStinx

    This begs for a poll on how high the next “Walking Dead” ratings will go. :cool:

  • Stormy44

    After seeing the new Ad Age report about the fees for 30 sec spots on all the shows, I think that it is a safe bet that ABC will renew SCANDAL, cancel 666 and possibly LAST RESORT (which is an expensive show to produce). And if Nashville continues to fall, that show will also be canceled as it is not making much more than Scandal per 30 sec spot and ABC spent a lot of money promoting the show. Based on the fees they collected at the upfront sales, they are probably not meeting the ratings they promised for Nashville and may have to reimburse some of the agencies. Scandal on the other hand have been consistent in it’s demo numbers since it premiered and so it’s contribution to the ABC bottom line has been steady.

    I put LAST RESORT in the possible category because I think that if it can steady it’s numbers, it will be renewed by ABC. It was one of the top, if not the top show at the international upfronts and so ABC is making back some of it’s investment from international licenses.

  • Sarah

    I think the problem with renewals is it doesn’t matter if a show beats everything else in its time slot. It’s got to get good figures within the network. So it hasn’t got to do better than shows on the other networks,it’s got to beat its own shows!

  • What a crock

    Please explain why 18-21 year old matter? Most have very little to no money… yeah, an 18 year old might ask their parents to buy them that 100K convertable Lexus and instead the parent gets them a $5k Toyota used car. A more logical(common sense) age group would be 25-55. And thanks to DVR, there is really no reason to ever watch a commerical again….So, why do we really care about Nielsen Ratings? On another note, it does seem like cable tv has taken over the 10pm time frame from nbc, abc and cbs.

  • Baaa!

    Worse case for Castle would be a mid-season or emergency fill-in next season if current trends remain roughly the same. Would not be surprised if it was moved, but then again DWTS is not a good lead-in anymore to launch a new show right now. (Also they had trouble with that spot even when it was until Castle.)If not for syndication H5O looks the worse of the two with the resurgent NBC, but having to reach minimum syndication number of episodes are its saving grace.

  • Anna Clarkwood

    @Dean W, what Cheers Sam & Diane? E.R.’s many couples? Friends many couples? I’m sure there are plenty of others as well. Shows don’t last that much longer than 4 years regardless if a coupling occurs or not.

    @what a crock, apparently ppl are watching the ads and apparently they are influenced at some point to buy based on what ads they saw. Also, recall that the harder it is to get @ someone the more worth it is to try and get to them. Advertisers are who pay for the tv shows. W/o them there wouldn’t be any shows. TV subscriptions to cable/satellite companies is peanuts.

    @Sarah, yep that’s exactly it. That’s why Bill and Rob sort things by network. If say CBS network avg is 2.5 then 1.5’s won’t get renewed. But on NBC who’s network avg is closer to 2.0 a 1.5 (esp Thursday comedy) is renewed. Note #’s are just general ideas.

  • ICBBsFuture

    How mad would you all be if Partners doesn’t get cancelled?? it would be funny!

  • Jon

    @ Dean-W

    I don’t think you will ever see a full romantic relationship between Tony and Ziva on NCIS. It would destroy the charm of the chemistry they have on the show, which is too people who care deeply for one another, and would take a bullet for each other. I personally like their back and forth witth and sarcastic banter, and their flirtyness. I hope the writers never cross the line.

  • Grimman

    “Andre Braugher rocks, but zombies rock much harder!”

    1:00 a.m. lol from me on that one.

  • Grimman

    oh and Yay for Bob’s Burgers. Great show.

  • dexterfury

    To Raymond Jenkins…

    Shut up and live with your show not getting the best ratings. Dont be jealous! Im not even going to write anymore because it would take pages why WD is original and different lol. And yeah the rating system is and can be messed up I know many shows I liked got cancelled. Just dont get too attached to your tv. Not the end of the world.

    And for all you Castle fans… I wouldnt be listening that it might get cancelled. I dont watch it and I hear alot about it. Also read every post and most of them are talking about Castle and how you all dont want it cancelled. Proof that it has loyal fans. And alot of them… Im sure its safe.

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