ABC: 'Nashville' Falls to A "Toss Up" For Cancellation Or Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice canceled 0.64
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.66
Last Resort :oops: 0.70
Scandal :| :| :| 0.75
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.77
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.85
Nashville :| :| :| 0.91
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.94
Suburgatory :) :) :) :) 1.06
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.88

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With a slip down to a 2.0 rating in its second episode, ABC's Wednesday rookie Nashville joins Scandal and Castle in the ABC mediocre rated 10pm drama clubhouse. Unlike Castle, which has a syndication deal going for it and likely gets another season, both Nashville & Scandal are currently in the "toss up" zone and could go either way, cancellation or renewal, at the end of the season.

Private Practice was canceled and voted out of the low rated drama club last week.

As I noted last week, rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are doing worse than Pan Am did last season, but better than Charlie's Angels. For that reason, I still expect each to air 13 (+/- a few) episodes before assuming their final resting place in the belly of the Cancellation Bear.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • RAYRAY

    I think SCANDAL can do better!

  • Hmm

    I’m very interested to see how Nashville does this week. Last week it took a big tumble, if it falls even more tomorrow it might be toast!

  • Jorge

    Scandal is so good, please get better!

  • Max

    Scandal is certain to be renewed!

  • dragon

    So many good shows started last year:

    2 Broke Girls
    Last Man Standing
    New Girl
    Once Upon a Time
    Person of Interest
    Revenge
    Suburgatory
    Smash
    Don’t trust the B
    Scandal

    Alcatraz
    Pan Am
    Bent
    Terra Nova
    GCB
    Missing

    This year, it looks like there’s just a couple at best. What a letdown.

  • @ramirescl

    Go Scandal!

  • Karyn

    I was skeptical about moving Revenge to Sundays with so much other TV going on, but it seems to have worked out for ABC.

  • eridapo

    Makes sense since the huge Premiere numbers for Neighbors and Nashville makes their averages appear better than what they are.

  • SJ

    Last Resort, 666 Park Avenue and Scandal are all gone by the end of the season. Depending on ABC’s scheduling needs, one or more of those might get additional episodes since all three new mid-season dramas, namely Mistresses, Red Widow and Zero Hour, have less than 13 episodes ordered. Alternatively, they could always order more episodes of Body of Proof and Primetime: WWYD to fill some holes if necessary.

    If Nashville keeps falling, it won’t get a back order. If it stabilizes at around 2.0-2.2 I can see it getting a back-9 (or 10 or 11), if for no other reason then because ABC doesn’t really have much in the way of replacements.

    The Tuesday 8pm comedy block won’t air there either. It will be kept to replace flop comedies from the fall season, like The Neighbors and likely one of the Friday multi-cams. If ABC is desperate enough and/or Neighbors ends up doing better than all freshman drama offerings, then it becomes the next Better With You and gets a full-season order with middling ratings, as ABC uses How to Live… and Family Tools to replace one of the dramas, most likely Last Resort, leading to yet another three-way comedy competition…

  • THE OLD MAN

    Am having the Steeler Nation donate all leftovers from their tailgating/house parties for the bear’s Private Practice Feast

    And from the Shondra fans a fine Rhine Whine

  • Nik

    I’m praying that Scandal doesn’t get cancelled. It’s my tv crack.

  • Mike

    Neighbors will unfortunately get a full order, but will not be here next fall, 666 and Last Resort will be gone I. The spring even with additional scripts, and Scandal will be cancelled in May without a doubt.

  • Jared

    If SCANDAL stays a series ABC only gives 13 episode orders too I can see this show lasting a couple more seasons. Its a steady performer for ABC.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “If SCANDAL stays a series ABC only gives 13 episode orders too”

    Despite all the “cable dramas are better because they only produce 13 episodes” chatter among the TV cluelessverse, that model just doesn’t work for broadcast where the payoff is in syndication after 88 episodes, and the longer it takes to get there, the more money you lose along the way.

  • Bee

    man, i need scandal and nashville to hang in there. i’m super worried about nashville though. in a dream world, it would get picked up by a cable network where it would be better suited. the show’s not super juicy or dramatic like similar shows, but is great.

    and AHH comedies tonight! praying they do well.

  • rob60990

    I hope Nashville stabilizes for ABC’s sake.

    The Tuesday comedies have fail written all over them, though ABC is stuck with Happy Endings for the season, Apartment 23 will likely be replaced with one of the comedy replacements. I hope The Neighbors doesn’t get additional episodes.

  • Alex

    I LOVE SCANDAL, GREY’S ANATOMY, AND NASHVILLE!!!! MY FAVORITE SHOWS ON TV RIGHT NOW!!

  • Roco

    @ Mike you’re a psychic now, your predictions are hopeless, with 666 Park Ave, Last Resort and Nashille all doing bad, I certainly believe Scandal will be renewed, maybe move to a new time period, or stay behind Grey’s.

  • Ricky

    Well, LR is gonna be fun while it lasts. Wish I could say the same for 666 Park Ave. I gave up on that one after episode 3, it’s really just more of the same each week, nothing new. Hope ABC doesn’t screw up twice and try putting Zero Hour on Thursdays at 8. That would be a huge mistake.

    If you wanna have some fun, come play the Elimination Game: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/play-the-elimination-game/152342/comment-page-15/#comments

  • Fred

    @Ricky,

    I agree with your positive statement about Last Resort. It’s an entertaining show which needed a later time slot.

    However I started to really enjoy 666 by episode 3! The characters and the DRAKE were more fleshed out (honestly NO PUN INTENDED)especially the always watchable Vanessa Williams. The show was enhanced by episode 3.

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