ABC: 'Nashville' Falls to A "Toss Up" For Cancellation Or Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice canceled 0.64
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.66
Last Resort :oops: 0.70
Scandal :| :| :| 0.75
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.77
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.85
Nashville :| :| :| 0.91
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.94
Suburgatory :) :) :) :) 1.06
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.88

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With a slip down to a 2.0 rating in its second episode, ABC's Wednesday rookie Nashville joins Scandal and Castle in the ABC mediocre rated 10pm drama clubhouse. Unlike Castle, which has a syndication deal going for it and likely gets another season, both Nashville & Scandal are currently in the "toss up" zone and could go either way, cancellation or renewal, at the end of the season.

Private Practice was canceled and voted out of the low rated drama club last week.

As I noted last week, rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are doing worse than Pan Am did last season, but better than Charlie's Angels. For that reason, I still expect each to air 13 (+/- a few) episodes before assuming their final resting place in the belly of the Cancellation Bear.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • tv#1

    I am really enjoying both Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue. I would like to see them stick around, but I can see they won’t. Maybe one of them will get a full season order though?

  • Brian

    Glad to see both OUAT and Revenge with their 4 smilies. I hope Scandal gets 5 as well and a full season order.

  • Mike

    @Roco Not a Psychic, just making predictions like everyone else, and I don’t see ABC renewing Scandal for a third season when it has 1.9 three episodes in and shows usually drop in the Winter and Spring, I think it will get a back 9 to fill a timeslot, but if you think it is certain for a renewal you are delusional, I’m not going to say anything on Nashville, but u don’t see it getting a back nine unless it is to fill a timeslot.

  • Mike

    @ROCO and Scandal will not be moved to a new timeslot unless it is to burn off episodes, if it can only pull a 1.9 with Greys as a lead in, it will do even worse in any other timeslot.

  • s0303

    loved the premiere of nashville…but the second episode was extremely boring…going to give it a couple more weeks since i love connie britton…

  • Kavyn

    LR and 666 are the only new abc shows I care about, so it sucks to see them get such low ratings.

    I also like Nashville but I don’t nevessarily care all that much about it

    And I tuned in to The Neighbours the other day (I think it was episode 3) and I was actually laughing out loud (which I haven’t done in a while). I’m tuning in to the show despite hating the latter part of the premiere trailer. They seemed to not focus too much on the cgi which is better.

  • Fred

    cont…

    I also enjoy Nashville. But I can see why its losing viewers. The country music theme is limiting the audience and it is a bit depressing to watch. I mean watching a one-time superstar lose record sales and affection to a younger star is not most peoples idea of entertainment. That said, I think the acting is above par for serial dramas.

  • ….

    Mondays:
    8:00-10PM: Dancing with the Stars
    10-11:00PM: Castle

    Tuesdays:
    8:00PM-9:00PM: Dancing with the Stars
    9:00-10:00PM: Red Widow
    10:00-11:00PM: Scandal

    Wednesdays:
    8:00-8:30: The Middle
    8:30-9:00PM: Happy Endings
    9:00-9:30PM: Modern Family
    9:30-10:00PM: Suburgatory
    10:00PM-11:00PM: Last Resort

    Thursdays:
    8:00:8:30PM: The Neighbors
    8:30-9:00PM: Don’t Trust the B—- in Apt.23
    9:00-10:00PM: 666 Park Avenue
    10-11:00PM: Grey’s Anatomy

    Sundays:
    8:00-9:00PM: Once Upon a Time
    9:00-10:00PM: Revenge
    10:00PM-11:00PM: Nashville

  • Sarah

    I think if any show is going to get a break from ABC it’s Nashville. The ratings haven’t been good, but the reviews are excellent. I’m sure the itunes releases are bringing in some extra money. I don’t have any numbers, but I do know quite a few people who have purchased the music.

  • Greg

    @SJ

    I highly doubt ABC will try to compete against The Big Bang Theory/Two and a Half Men when they can compete against Raising Hope/Ben and Kate. Much more likely to see Last Resort receiving a few extra episodes (if it stays steady) and Wipeout replacing it for the rest of the season.

  • Fred

    I realize this is not the forum to discuss unscripted shows, but the low budget SHARK TANK has got to be one of the most profitable shows on ABC. Except it to be on for a very long time.

  • Roco

    @ Mike, Dude I’m still sticking my prediction, 1.9, whatever at least Scandal stays steady,and for the record it takes time to grow. You can predict what gets canceled all you want but I truly believe ABC will give Scandal more of a change to grow, unlike the newer shows that keeps falling in the ratings.

    Scandal has potiental to succeed, so does Nashville..

  • Tim

    Of the shows certain, likely, or toss ups to be cancelled:

    666 Park Avenue will not get a full season or air the two (?) additional episodes it got
    Last Resort will air its two (?) additional, will not get a full season
    Scandal will get a full second season but cancelled in May
    The Neighbors will get a full season, depending on how it continues to rate it will probably be cancelled in May
    Nashville will get a full season based on critical acclaim.

    However I would love if the Neighbors and Last Resort got second seasons.

  • MRBEAN

    Based on time slots and lead ins, I think that Last Resort has outperformed both Nashville and 666 Park Ave. Nashville dropped from 2.8 to 2.0 and we will see how it holds this week. Last Resort premiered at 2.2, then a 1.9, 1.6 and up to a 1.7 against the top show on CBS (and tv) and the top show on CW. Nashville follows the Modern Family / Suburgatory lead in and has a rather favorable time slot. The show is pretty good and starting to develop an interesting story. I think ABC should stick with it.

  • Doug

    @ … That may be the worst schedule I’ve ever seen.

    I’m waiting with baited breath of Happy Endings and Apt 23 tonight – the best hour block of comedy on TV. Apt 23 did okay post Modern Family, and HE should be able to hold at a 2. A failing DWTS isn’t going to be a boon, though. I think that ABC would be ok with both at a 2.0 in the hour, if only to establish that comedy beachhead.

  • Cyrax86

    Now that Private Practice is out of the way, Castle is definitely safe, and I hope Scandal survives one way or another.

  • One

    LAST RESORT WILL RALLY! It will not be left in the dust! It shall rise and become the hit that America needs it to be! The very future of the WORLD rests on Last Resort’s survival! So march forth with me and bring it to the hit status that it so rightfully deserves! The other shows in the slot do not deserve their successful ratings! RISE, LAST RESORT! RISE AND CLAIM YOUR BIRTHRIGHT!

  • Loving Lost Girl

    @ One

    Couldn’t agree with you more. Last Resort is definitely worth keeping.

  • glover

    666 Park Ave numbers don’t look that bad compared to other 10pm shows.

  • cas127

    Bill,

    re: “The Money is in Syndication”

    It would be great if you could write a brief post summarizing this dynamic (it seems more-and-more shows with weakish ratings manage to stagger into a third season, essentially ensuring a fourth – which is a *long* time to bleed viewers.)

    (This trend may help explain this season’s fairly dramatic ratings’ dropoffs).

    My casual understanding is that the producing studio of a show more or less breaks even (maybe loses a little bit) during the first network run of a show – it only starts to make profit during the syndication phase.

    (If this is how it works, man do the producing studios have to front a ton of money for successful shows like Friends!)

    Is this essentially how it works?

    What happens to old orphan shows that never make it to 88 (famously, like Cybill – who sued over it)?

    Are they *ever* syndicated?

    If not, why?

    It is hard to see exactly why a minimum of 88 shows is required for daily stripping (17 weeks, the significance?).

    Any explanations?

    I think it would make an interesting, timely post.

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