ABC: 'Nashville' Falls to A "Toss Up" For Cancellation Or Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice canceled 0.64
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.66
Last Resort :oops: 0.70
Scandal :| :| :| 0.75
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.77
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.85
Nashville :| :| :| 0.91
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.94
Suburgatory :) :) :) :) 1.06
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.88

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With a slip down to a 2.0 rating in its second episode, ABC's Wednesday rookie Nashville joins Scandal and Castle in the ABC mediocre rated 10pm drama clubhouse. Unlike Castle, which has a syndication deal going for it and likely gets another season, both Nashville & Scandal are currently in the "toss up" zone and could go either way, cancellation or renewal, at the end of the season.

Private Practice was canceled and voted out of the low rated drama club last week.

As I noted last week, rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are doing worse than Pan Am did last season, but better than Charlie's Angels. For that reason, I still expect each to air 13 (+/- a few) episodes before assuming their final resting place in the belly of the Cancellation Bear.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • BigFlop

    ABC’s Wednesday rookie Nashville joins Scandal and Castle in the ABC MEDIOCRE rated 10pm drama clubhouse.

    MEDIOCRE is the person who wrote this. A Revolution fan for sure.

  • Bern

    ABC needs to move “Last Resort” at a 10pm slot if not they will kill this show just like they did with another great show, “Missing”.

  • kennya

    I hope scandal doesnt get picked up for a full season! Its so steady and if it goes on for 22 episodes it will probably drop. 13 episodes seasons are much better! Im glad they announced the ending of pp. I would have hated it if it ends with a cliffhanger.

  • KG

    So sad. I am loving 666 and Nashville. But oh well. There’ll be something new to love and lose next year.

  • a p garcia

    If they ask me which program to cancel between Scandal, Nashville, & Last Resort, I would choose Nashville. I would also recomend Last Resort take up the time period that Nashville occupied. I still think some liberal executive who hates the military at ABC wants Last Resort to fail and that is why they put it in such a crappy timeslot.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman
  • Richard Steven Hack

    As long as Revenge remains, I’m good. As far as I’m concerned, Castle could go either way, but I’d be fine with it being renewed for one more season. More Stana is good Stana! (And Molly ain’t bad, either!) :-)

    Last Resort is doomed. Period. That could have been predicted by anyone based on the stupid premise alone.

  • Nick

    At this point, I’d put 666 Park Avenue, Last Resort and Nashville all on the bubble. 666 and LR got a 1.7 in their last eps, only .3 away from Nashville’s 2.0. And the earlier 2 have shown signs of steadying, something Nashville has not.

  • rob60990

    SCANDAL has NO potential for growth and it’s wasting a timeslot ABC could use for a more worthy show.

  • matt

    Revenge’s lowest rated epp so far is 8.3Ma after already 4 epps… after 4 epps last season, the lowest rated was 7.7M, after starting with 10.1M… Revenge is already up 600,000 viewers since last season.

    Last Resort rose last week in viewers. (9.3, 8.0, 6.9, 7.1) It has a slight chance of renewal, and has been stable in viewers and in the demo and has very positive critical reaction. (74/100)

    Scandal will get renewed cause Shonda Rhimes is royalty at ABC. Plus, its got decent critical reaction, its a political thriller, and its really stable in viewers/demo. (6.7, 6.6, 6.2)

    Castle will gret renewed due to how its the third most watched series overall on Monday plus its the most watched drama on Monday plus it always dominates its hour in viewers (+2M) and at least comes #2 in the demo.

  • Ashley

    @Bill Gorman Wouldn’t the solution be to lower the number of episodes you need for syndication again?

  • Nick

    ABC 2013-2014 fantasy schedule:

    Mon-
    8: Castle
    9: Revenge
    10: Rise & Fall (new)

    DWTS should move to summer, but Mon should stay as “guily pleasure night” with Castle & Revenge.
    Rise & Fall has all the soap of Revenge without the actual revenge, so it’s perfect.

    Tue-
    8: Shark Tank
    9: SHEILD (new)
    10: Zero Hour

    SHIELD is a sequel to The Avengers, so it should make this male-skewing night successful.

    Wed-
    8: The Middle
    8:30: Suburgatory
    9: Modern Family
    9:30: Now What? (new)
    10: Birthright (new)

    Now What? is a family comedy, and Birthright is a sort of Homeland-meets-Parenthood sort if drama. Both should fit into this family-oriented night.

    Thu-
    8: Grey’s Anatomy
    9: Burns & Cooley (new)
    10: Nashville

    GA should move to 8. It’s the only way to kill the timeslot curse.
    Burns & Cooley is a drama about a rivalry between 2 doctors. When they made it, they were BEGGING for this scheduling.

    Fri-
    8: Last Man Standing
    8:30: Crazy Gene (new)
    9: Malibu Country
    9:30: How to Live With Your Parents (for the Rest of Your Life)
    10: 20/20
     
    TGIF will probably be a success. It should stretch to 2 hours, and Crazy Gene sounds like a good fit.

    Sat-
    8: Shark Tank (R)
    9: Modern Family (R)
    9:30: Crazy Gene (R)
    10: Primetime: What Would You Do?

    WWYD has the benefits of a newsmagazine (cheap, easy to move around) and is also not very similar to 48 Hours, making it perfect counterprogramming.

    Sun-
    7: AFHV
    8: OUAT
    9: Beneath (new)
    10: Last Resort

    OUAT/Revenge could be a success, but Revenge is needed elsewhere now that DWTS has collapsed.
    Instead, make Sundays scifi/thriller.
    Beneath is a scifi show set in a place very similar to OUAT’s Storybrooke, so it should be a good fit.

    Phew. Done.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @Ashley, The number is determined by how many episodes are needed to be able to strip episodes over a period of time without repeating them.

  • Roco

    @ Rob you and others dont know good programming my I friend, Scandal has plenty of growth, unlike Revenge,, who can Emily Thorn go after next, her Grandma. I like Revenge, but i dont see it lasting that many seasons.

  • Mike

    @Roco
    Yes, some shows do take time to grow, but how long do you think ABC will give Scandal it’s aired roughly 10 eps, and it hasn’t grown and if it doesn’t grow this week, I would say the chances of a third season is small, I don’t want it to fail, though I don’t watch the show, I’m just predicting that it will not be able to sustain a 1.9 throughout the season, most shows fall in the spring, and if scandal manages to get a back 9, and most likely fall even lower than 1.9, which is already pretty bad. Even if it stabilizes at 1.9 for the rest of the fall, after the hiatus it will be in major trouble.

  • SarahL

    The Neighbors is my guilty pleasure. I find the show hilarious, but I don’t see it making it to a second season.

    Scandal has grown on me and now I quite like it, but I think that it is done after the 13 episodes ordered for this season. Shonda should see if ABC would sell Scandal to a cable network where it would do better.

  • eridapo

    Renew/ Cancel using A25-54 Metric (Scripted ABC Network average 3.259)

    Show CI
    666 Park Avenue 0.648
    Private Practice 0.681
    Last Resort 0.740
    Scandal 0.783
    The Neighbors 0.869
    Castle 0.869
    Nashville 0.900
    The Middle 0.969
    Revenge 1.007
    Suburgatory 1.037
    Once Upon A Time 1.167
    Grey’s Anatomy 1.413
    Modern Family 1.800

  • Brandy

    Only abc shows I watch are Once and Nashville.Hope Nashville gets to wrap up if dosent make it.

  • omabin

    @Nick,

    Although I strongly agree that DWTS needs to go, you cannot ask ABC to launch 5 new dramas and 2 new comedies on the fall, they simply won’t be able to do that. On top of that, you are using in your schedule dramas that are more likely to be canceled than renewed, such as Nashville, Last Resort and the yet-to-premiere-yet-unfortunately-likely-to-be-canceled Zero Hour. So, that would mean you would actually need 8 new dramas for that schedule of yours be feasible. Not possible.

    Also, I am opposed to moving Revenge again and ABC won’t do it either. They needed Nashville to be successful so that it could anchor another night a la Revenge but i dont think they will be lucky… Also, leave GA at 9. They need a family drama at 8. Or a procedural could also work.

  • omabin

    For the record, I would do it like this (this changes quite often lol). Even though as I’ve said, I am strongly inf avour of letting go DWTS, for now, they have nothing to hold Mondays, it’s just not possible. The only three shows they have performing decently are Ouat, GA and Revenge, none of which I think shoudl be moved. Other semi-performing shows such as castle cannot hold nights in any other hour than 10pm and launching two new dramas back to back is a bad, bad idea. As sad as that sounds, that 1.7 that DWTS will probably be pulling by spring is still likely to be the best ABC can do next year. They needed Nashville to be the next revenge… badly, but it does not seem so.

    Monday
    8 DWTS
    9 DWTS
    10 Castle

    Tuesday
    8 Happy Endings
    8h30 Apartment 23
    9 New Drama Male Skewing Show (Shield sounds good)
    10 Last Resort if it survives or Scandal

    Wednesday
    8 Middle
    8h30 Suburgatory
    9 Modern Family
    9h30 New Family Oriented Comedy
    10h New Drama (or one of the midseason dramas if it survives)

    Thursday
    8h Body of Proof
    9h Grey’s Anatomy
    10h New Drama (i think there is a sstrong chance nashville is moved there during this season and eventually hits there… if that’s the case I say leave it there and save yourself the trouble of launching yet another drama)

    Friday
    8h Shark Tank
    9h Malibu Country
    9h30 Last Man Standing
    10h 20/20

    Sunday
    8h Once Upon a Time
    9h Revenge
    10h New Drama

    I am going with 3/4 new dramas and 1 comedy which is more reasonable than what you were trying.

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