ABC: 'Nashville' Falls to A "Toss Up" For Cancellation Or Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice canceled 0.64
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.66
Last Resort :oops: 0.70
Scandal :| :| :| 0.75
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.77
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.85
Nashville :| :| :| 0.91
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.94
Suburgatory :) :) :) :) 1.06
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.88

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With a slip down to a 2.0 rating in its second episode, ABC's Wednesday rookie Nashville joins Scandal and Castle in the ABC mediocre rated 10pm drama clubhouse. Unlike Castle, which has a syndication deal going for it and likely gets another season, both Nashville & Scandal are currently in the "toss up" zone and could go either way, cancellation or renewal, at the end of the season.

Private Practice was canceled and voted out of the low rated drama club last week.

As I noted last week, rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are doing worse than Pan Am did last season, but better than Charlie's Angels. For that reason, I still expect each to air 13 (+/- a few) episodes before assuming their final resting place in the belly of the Cancellation Bear.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Greg

    @omabin

    Last season, ABC launched in the fall: Last Man Standing, Man Up, Suburgatory, Revenge, Once Upon a Time, Pan Am and Charlie’s Angels. So yeah, they are able to do that.

  • Castillions

    Bill must have been pissed when Castle got an extra episode last week

  • KJ Styles

    I hope Last Resort becomes this year’s Body Of Proof (low rated show that somehow gets renewed). This really sucks, the two new shows that I actually like (LR and Vegas) are both likely to get the axe.

    I knew before the season started that LR would get killed by Big Bang Theory. ABC were idiots for airing it there. All of the new shows they’ve aired Thursdays at 8 have failed. They should air Grey’s Anatomy in that slot next year. It’s fans will watch it regardless of timeslot. It won’t beat BBT but it’ll draw well enough to warrant renewal, and will be a good lead in for shows following it.

  • Craig

    too bad, because Nashville is the best new drama the networks have to offer. it’s this season’s Revenge. here’s hoping ABC at least keeps it through the New Year…

  • CGoin

    I hope they give Last Resort a final 2-3 episodes to finish the show. I HATE when scripted serial shows like this and The Event, etc.. die without a conclusion no matter how rushed. They did it right with Jericho, but it took a lot of effort by fans.

    That said, Last Resorts problem ISNT THE SHOW… ITS THE TIME SLOT ABC..

    Thursday at 8pm against sitcoms ??? Its a 9 or 10 oclock show.. Not an 8PM one.

  • JCT

    Scandal is really great – need more episodes – need to vote for it @TV Guide Magazine Fan Favorite. Much better than others on right now! ABC needs to advertise it more

  • omabin

    @Greg,

    I stand corrected. And ironically that happens to be the most sucessfull recent fall for them, with Once Upon a Time, Revenge, Suburgatory and even Last Man Standing become hits or at least sucessful. I am out of previsions then lol

  • agnes

    cancel scandal, the neighbours and nashville.
    renew 666 park avenue.

  • POI

    ABC only has 1 amazing show this season which is Last Resort and they have put it on the death slot of the network that was a bad move and you should not have done that if they put Private Practice there it would be good because it will be a doctor night for them i think if scandal is about doctors and that stuff i dont watch that show, I’m happy with where their returning shows are going because they are much better than last season and last season was amazing which i like, keep it going ABC.

  • Jace Loggins

    Poor ABC. How long until they realize that heavily skewing female is not helping at all: that’s what the CW and Lifetime are for. Stop with the cheesy chick crap and go more male-friendly and/or more edgy.

    And I’m saying that as a late 30′s guy that, except for SNF, doesn’t watch anything on NBC, CBS, or Fox. Maybe that’s the problem for the networks: most of what I watch is on cable (The Walking Dead, The League, Tosh.O, It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, American Horror Story).

    As a guy, the broadcast nets offer me nothing. It’s like everything they make is for teenage girls or older women.

    Sigh.

  • Mitchell

    Nashville is just not ultimately an interesting show.Its toooo s l o w w w w w which makes boredom and disinterest set in very quickly sadly.I had hopes for the show mom and I both did and kudos to the fans enjoy it I cant say whether it will or wont be canceled no one really can until ABC delivers the news to the cast only then will we know either way.

  • Riff Rafferty

    Patricia Heaton is doing a much better job carrying Jami Gertz’s show than she did 20 years ago, that’s for sure. Although “The Neighbors” will have to find another 2 million life forms watching to prevent being blasted off into space next May, it will get a full season. And I’m pretty sure ABC will actually air the full season too. Much unlike “Sibs” which Oger picked up for a full season because apparently the ABC garbage can just wasn’t full enough that year.

    “Last Resort” is also getting picked up. So go cry about it.

  • Fred

    If Nashville can maintain around a 2.0 it will remain safe. Not easy for 10:00 show to thrive in recent seasons. I enjoy the show and hope it can survive.

  • Lynn

    @jace loggins

    Watch Last Resort on abc tonight, that is geared towards guys. My dad and brother love the show. My dad is in his 50′s and my brother is almost 30. They also like Walking Dead.

  • Lynn

    schedule wise…come next fall here is the schedule I think is ideal..

    Sunday:fantasy/action family night
    8pm Once Upon a Time
    9pm Gaslight: Steampunk drama about three fueding families in San Francisco
    10pm Revenge

    Monday:
    8pm DWTS (start is early and have it down to 1 hr by the time the fall season starts)/bachelor cut to 1 hour episodes midseason (maybe extended episodes online?)
    9pm Shark Tank
    10pm Castle

    Tuesday:
    8pm DWTS Results
    9pm Shield: Marvel’s attempt at show set in there cinematic universe
    10pm Last Resort

    Wendesday: family comedy/drama night
    8pm The Middle
    8:30pm The Neighbors
    9pm Modern Family
    9:30pm Subergatory
    10pm Zero Hour

    Thursday: medical drama/Shonda night
    8pm Grey’s Anatomy
    9pm Warriors: this is not another Shonda show. But a medical one that would bridge between Grey’s and Scandal well. It is about doctors at a military hospital near DC.
    10pm Scandal

    Friday:
    8pm Last Man Standing
    8:30pm Malibu Country, if Malibu is a bust then ‘Housewives’
    9pm Notorious Mollie Flowers: show about a selfless do-gooder accused of a crime who after being exonerated decides to focus on her own needs, much to the dismay of those around her.
    9:30pm Happy Endings
    10pm 20/20

    Midseason possible replacements:
    A Knight’s Tale: Ron Moore’s take on the Heath Ledger film, would fit well on Sunday .
    Untitled J Michael Straczynski show: a pandemic thriller, might work well on Wednesday or Thursday
    I Hate LA Dudes: A Shonda attempt at comedy, could work with Happy Endings?
    Fiveheads: Tyra Bank’s the teenage years, could work on either Wednesday or Friday. Could be a female everybody hates chris.
    How the F— am I Normal: show about growing up in the 80′s might work well on Friday or Wednesday.
    Apt 23
    Wipeout
    Wife-Swap

  • The End

    @Jace Loggins

    666 Park Avenue is an edgy type of show. There’s nothing like it currently on broadcast TV anyway. This is one thing that confuses me about the reception this show received. It certainly doesn’t deserve to be a 5 million rated show, but sadly it currently is.

    Dave Annable looks a lot like Jack from Lost lol.

    I haven’t checked but I would guess this show skews slightly more female, asides from having a decent amount of ‘model’ looking actresses. Vanessa Williams is probably what keeps this show skewing so young, by bringing her male/female fanbase over from Desperate Housewives.

  • The End

    Anyway, out of everything on the list, I would love a 666 Park Avenue renewal. If ABC feel merciful. I’m sure this show could work on another day, just doesn’t feel like a Sunday kind of show from what I’ve seen of it at the moment but aren’t entirely show what day I would put it on. Certainly 666 Park Avenue looks like a show that would cost less than Last Resort and both are doing pretty much the same in regards to the 18-49.

  • Lynn

    @The End how is 666 edgy or unique? It feels like the Devil Advocate with shades of Gossip Girl.

  • sofaspud

    @ ….

    I think “Happy Endings” is WAY too raunchy and adult for an 8:30am slot (yes, I think it’s been scheduled there before, but not a good idea). The show is hit or miss, sometimes LOL hilarious and other times meh. But one thing is true… lots of sex jokes and situations.

  • The End

    @Lynn

    The premise, the story and locale. Watch up the the current episode, infact any Nielsen viewer wanting something different should watch this and notice how the show grabs you.

    It’s not perfect but some of the things in it are genuinely awesome, such as the guy who was forced to kill to bring back his wife in a deal with John Locke. But discovers he got more than he bargained for, and ultimately..

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