ABC: 'Nashville' Falls to A "Toss Up" For Cancellation Or Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice canceled 0.64
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.66
Last Resort :oops: 0.70
Scandal :| :| :| 0.75
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.77
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.85
Nashville :| :| :| 0.91
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.94
Suburgatory :) :) :) :) 1.06
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.88

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With a slip down to a 2.0 rating in its second episode, ABC's Wednesday rookie Nashville joins Scandal and Castle in the ABC mediocre rated 10pm drama clubhouse. Unlike Castle, which has a syndication deal going for it and likely gets another season, both Nashville & Scandal are currently in the "toss up" zone and could go either way, cancellation or renewal, at the end of the season.

Private Practice was canceled and voted out of the low rated drama club last week.

As I noted last week, rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are doing worse than Pan Am did last season, but better than Charlie's Angels. For that reason, I still expect each to air 13 (+/- a few) episodes before assuming their final resting place in the belly of the Cancellation Bear.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • rob60990

    “Poor ABC. How long until they realize that heavily skewing female is not helping at all: that’s what the CW and Lifetime are for. Stop with the cheesy chick crap and go more male-friendly and/or more edgy.”

    Yet the past few years when ABC tries to appeal to men, it fails.

  • rob60990

    Btw, when making a schedule:
    1. DWTS is not going anywhere, at best they may get rid of the results show and even that is doubtful when it’s the only show on Tuesdays that can break a over a 2.0.
    2. DWTS cannot be reduced to only an hour on Monday especially in the beginning when there are 11-13 stars.
    3. Grey’s Anatomy will not be moving to Thursdays at 8. It will stay Thursdays at 9 until its cancellation.

  • capslocke

    ABC really needs to clear house after this season, assuming they have a semi-solid developement season. Getting rid of Private Practice was a very good first step, but they need to keep going. Aside from the obvious cancellations of 666 Park Avenue and Last Resort, ABC needs to get rid of Scandal, Nashville, The Neighbours, Happy Endings (it won’t be up for syndication until season 5 cos of it’s short first season anyway), and Apt. 23. Castle seems to be showing signs of life lately, and I’d at least keep it for 13 episodes as a midseason replacement, like what ABC is doing with Body Of Proof this year. Also, DWTS is dying a slow and painful death, but with dramas and comedies alike failing all around, give it one more season, ABC can’t afford not to.

  • Mike

    @Lynn
    I like your schedule, but the sad truth is the Last Resort and Scandal are probably not going to be around next Fall, they both are performing below a 2.0. I love how people here make schedules even when there shows are not performing in renewal territory, unless they both are flat

  • Mike

    @Lynn
    I like your schedule, but the sad truth is the Last Resort and Scandal are probably not going to be around next Fall, they both are performing below a 2.0. I love how people here make schedules even when there shows are not performing in renewal territory, unless they both are flat or rising for the rest of the year they will be cancelled. the same probably can be said for HE, but I’m holding hope because of syndication.

  • The End

    @capslocke

    ABC won’t nuke most of its shows to start over, they’l retain some of the average/decent performers as there is no guarantee any of the replacement shows will perform better or worse than what they have already. It’s a smart move.

    Ideally I think the renewals will be.

    Middle
    Once Upon a Time
    Revenge
    Greys
    Modern Family
    Castle
    Suburgatory

    And 2 of the following

    Last Resort
    666 Park Avenue
    Scandal
    Nashville

    The rest – Dead

  • Bobby C.

    Sorry to hear about Nashville. Not really a country music fan.

  • Just Desserts

    Out the of the new shows.

    Full season:

    The Neighbors
    Nashville

    On the Bubble:
    Park Avenue (?)

    Cancelled:
    Last Resort :)

  • tv#1

    ABC could benefit from a line up shake up come mid-season. A schedule like this may benefit them.

    Sun:
    Once Upon a Time
    Revenge
    Mistresses

    Mon:
    Bachelor/DWTS
    Castle

    Tue:
    The Neighbors/ DWTS Results
    The Family Tools/ DWTS Results
    Happy Endings
    Don’t Trust the B- in Apt 23
    Scandal

    Wed:
    The Middle
    Suburgatory
    Modern Family
    How to live with your parents (for the rest of your life)
    Red Widow/Zero Hour

    Thur:
    Body of Proof
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Nashville

    Fri:
    Last Man Standing
    Malibu Country
    Shark Tank
    20/20

  • The End

    And with the 1.3 recently received by Last Resort. I’m going to downgrade my prediction for this show as cancelled, dead, gone.

    This should help Scandal/Nashville/666 Park Avenue in some-ways if ABC is looking to keep one or two of these shows.

    I’m honestly happy.

  • Josh

    I have been skeptical to watch any new shows this season because every show I seem to get into seems to get cancelled. However, I decided to finally give Nashville a chance and am quite impressed with the show. I think it would do better behind Grey’s Anatomy or Revenge instead of 10pm on a Wednesday night…time will tell.

  • Boone

    how does Grey’s Anatomy stay on the air…shelf life long over

  • The End

    @Boone

    Excellent numbers. Which kinda nulls your point really.

  • Just Desserts

    @Boone

    There’s just nothing to replace it with. The days of LOST, Desperate Housewives, Ugly Betty, and Brothers & Sisters are long gone and ABC is just hoping something would come up to bring the spark back. Until that happens, Grey’s stays.

  • omabin

    It’s very sad to look at ABC this season. Because you look at the other networks, and their poor results are mostly due to the poor pilots that were picked up. ABC, though, they have their schedule all wrong. It’s actually impressive how they managed to do so many mistakes.

    This is how it should be:

    Monday (Yeah, well, DWTS has to be replaced and we all know it, but realistically, they could not do it this season without knowing how much of a collapse it would endure)
    DWTS
    DWTS
    Castle

    Tuesday (this is the worst night ever in terms of schedule. It has been for years. They keep doing a “mixed signals” night, with the very old-skewing and heavily female DWTS results and wahtever 10pm drama they have there, and then insering stuff like V, detroit and now the comedies. Working with what I have, and still saving the results show for now, because well, there is nothing else):
    Malibu Country
    Last Man Standing
    DWTS Results Show
    Red Widow

    [They would not thrive with this night, because this combination of programs is not a hit-type of lineup. But it is good counterprogramming to the very young skewing lineups on the other networks, sort of the like the strategy that CBS uses on the other nights)

    Wednesday (they should just man up and try the 6 hours of comedies. I think that comedies like Happy Endings and Apartment 23 could average a 2.0 at 10 if proper lead-in. Suburgatory is actually a very good lead-in for Happy Endings I think. The bitch would likely get hurt by starting at 10pm, but hell, the mentalist got a 1.5 starting at 11. I think it is worth a try. And they will do sooo badly on tuesdays…)
    The Middle
    Neighbours
    Modern Family
    Suburgatory
    Happy Endings
    Apartment 23

    Thursday (just give Nashville the lead-in it needs. It would be very very compatible with Greys and it could do better than a 2.0 almost for sure. There is no easy way to solve the 8 clock. I would have aired the final season of PP there and replaced it with BoP later on… They could try a procedural there… Again, old-sekwing, counterprogramming will not be a hit, but might just as well do better than whatever else they try…Also, just let the night be female-centric):
    Private Practice/Body of Proof
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Nashville

    Friday (As nice as it would be to revive TGIF, the night is winning and the comedies are needed elsewhere. In an ideal world, the night would be shark tank, the comedies at 9 and bop at 10. But since the comedies and bop are needed during weekdays, just leave it as it is… it’s winning anyway)
    Shark Tank
    Primetime
    20/20

    Sunday (Scandal is sooo compatible with revenge. I think it would work so well. It was already exposed to the GA audience and it didnt work (which is because the shows have nothing in common), so they should try revenge.
    Once Upon a Time
    Revenge
    Scandal

    I love 666 and, especially, Last Resort, but I just don’t see any way they can be saved.

    What do you guys think?

  • The End

    @omabin
    @What do you guys think?

    To be honest I’m incredibly nervous about 666 Park Avenue, on the one hand it’s doing much better now than Last Resort in the 18-49, on the other it has 2 million less viewers than what I would of liked, if it was pulling 6-7 million with a 1.7-2.0 I would have a lot more hope.

    All I can really say is, I hope ABC has some faith in this series and perhaps moves to another day if renewed.

    Nielsen viewers need to get behind this series, it’s not a lost cause, there is some chance there. The mountain of getting this above a 2.0 isn’t too hard. It skews younger than Last Resort too.

  • Nathan

    I think it’s all about timing with Last Resort. Thursday may not be a good night for it period with football and so many highly rated CBS series. I’d just hate it if ended without an ending.

  • Lynn

    @rob60990

    was your comment about schedule directed at me? Becuase I was suggesting DWTS start earlier in September or even August so when the fall season starts they can have in down to an hour. I do not think the results show is going anywhere becuase they audience has a vote on the show so they can not say who is leaving without the audience’s vote.

    Grey’s needs to be moved to 8pm next year. ABC wants it as a tent pole then they need to use it as a tent pole. It is being wasted as a lead in to Scandal.

    @Mike the sad truth is whoever over at ABC thought 8pm on Thursday was good slot for a male shewing show like Last Resort should be shot or at least fired. I want Last Resort to survive so I am going to remain hopeful that it will survive somehow. It deserves to survive.

  • mr.awesome

    The only show I watch on ABC on a regular basis right now is Last Resort. I like that show I wasn’t really expecting much when I watched the premiere but it was surprisingly good. That being said I’m not all that surprised with it being canceled this show is not for everybody and when a show premieres it should make everybody want to watch it not start watching it and be pleasently surprised. By doing that you can expect there to be enough viewers to support the show.
    Last year my favorite show on ABC was the river now it was last resort why can’t any of the shows I like on ABC do well!?

  • Riff Rafferty

    Happy Endings (it won’t be up for syndication until season 5 cos of it’s short first season anyway)

    This thing is all but guaranteed to be on for 5 seasons. Sony will pay YOU a license fee to keep a sitcom of theirs on the air for 80 episodes, and as “Cougar Town” and “Men at Work” will attest, TBS is happy to have literally any ABC Studios production that Already Been Cancelled throws in the trash and literally anything Jamie Tarses’ production company throws up.

    Which is unfortunate because the season premiere was the biggest trainwreck failboat I’ve seen for a returning series so far this year. Talk about going over the rails. #overit

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