ABC: 'Nashville' Falls to A "Toss Up" For Cancellation Or Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice canceled 0.64
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.66
Last Resort :oops: 0.70
Scandal :| :| :| 0.75
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.77
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.85
Nashville :| :| :| 0.91
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.94
Suburgatory :) :) :) :) 1.06
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.88

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With a slip down to a 2.0 rating in its second episode, ABC's Wednesday rookie Nashville joins Scandal and Castle in the ABC mediocre rated 10pm drama clubhouse. Unlike Castle, which has a syndication deal going for it and likely gets another season, both Nashville & Scandal are currently in the "toss up" zone and could go either way, cancellation or renewal, at the end of the season.

Private Practice was canceled and voted out of the low rated drama club last week.

As I noted last week, rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are doing worse than Pan Am did last season, but better than Charlie's Angels. For that reason, I still expect each to air 13 (+/- a few) episodes before assuming their final resting place in the belly of the Cancellation Bear.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Buddy

    I feel that a 2.0 is becoming a new standard for 10:00 pm. Even CBS struggles to reach that mark on several nights. ABC has three consistent performers at the 2.0 score: Castle, Nashville, and Scandal. Though I agree they are probably in some jeopardy, I feel that as long as they stay there they will be back. This is overall a weak season, and I don’t see ABC canceling its only new ‘hit’ drama in Nashville.

  • Noelle

    Although Scandal’s numbers aren’t spectacular, based on the reaction it’s getting from the audience, I can’t help but notice that the show is garnering a very large black audience, and I don’t think that’s anything to scoff at. If ABC corners that market, they should hold onto it.

    Celebrities like Mary J. Blige, JJ Harriston (a well known Gospel singer), and Yvette Nicole Brown from Community are just a few of the black celebs that tune in… not to mention the TONS of Tumblr viewers. I don’t have any data confirming this, but I’m just a black viewer who’s noticing that I’m not alone in loving Scandal.

    This all goes to say that cornering a minority audience isn’t necessarily easy to do and ABC seems to be on the right track with Scandal. Could this play a role in their decision for renewal?

  • The End

    @Lynn

    Lots of shows deserve to survive, but if the audience isn’t there, there isn’t much networks can do. I myself was upset to see Eurekas life support pulled by NBC as were a lot of other people, the fanbase for this show for example was much larger than Last Resorts despite being a cable show(Obviously because it had been on the air longer). All I can really say in that regard is, stuff happens.

    At this point, I see it as a 3 horse race between the 3 struggling shows, Scandal, Nashville and 666 Park Avenue. I have Don’t Trust the B down as doomed too. Where as I don’t think all 3 will be renewed, 1/2 of these coming out unharmed will be a good outcome.

  • Lynn

    @TheEnd it is three way race between Last Resort, 666 park Ave and Nashville. 666 is still most likely to get the boot becuase it has a cushy time-slot and the best lead in it could have asked for. Nashville is cheap to make but it is under-performing in another cushy time slot. It is probably cheaper then 666 though so it still has a pulse probably. Last Resort is going up against football, chuck lorre, and now the world series. As the very least ABC is going to wait until the world series is over before making there final judgement on Last Resort. I still think it has more of a pulse then 666 though, especially how cheap Sony goes to keep a series going until syndication. Mid-season Red Widow will probably take 666’s place, Zero Hour if it is lucky will be on Tuesday or Wendesday at 10, Body of Proof if ABC is thinking clearly will be at 8 on Thursday, and wifeswap or more hopefully Last Resort will be in there somewhere as well.

    Scandal will be back next year because abc loves Shonda that much, and its not that surprising given that her series are not high concept, but are high in drama and Grey’s case audience.

  • Charlie

    Please don’t cancel Last Resort, 666, Neighbors or Nashville! I love them all!

  • eridapo

    Renew / CI based on results through 10/28 (Includes Sunday Prelim)

    Show CI
    Private Practice 0.629
    Don’t Trust the B— 0.658
    666 Park Avenue 0.666
    Last Resort 0.674
    Happy Endings 0.697
    Scandal 0.784
    Castle 0.794
    The Neighbors 0.852
    Nashville 0.878
    The Middle 0.976
    Suburgatory 1.065
    Revenge 1.084
    Once Upon A Time 1.316
    Grey’s Anatomy 1.404
    Modern Family 1.92

  • eridapo

    Excluding the Premiere episodes for The Neighbors and Nashville, the RCI for those two shows is:

    The Neighbors 0.775
    Nashville 0.779

    between Happy Endings and Scandal.

  • carol

    I wish more people would start watching Last Resort….It is such a good show, very thought provoking. The acting is excellent!!! Please give it a chance people; the show is definitely worth watching.

    Other favs are:
    CASTLE – Love it Love it Love it!!! What else can I say.
    The Neighbors – HILARIOUS!!!!!
    Once Upon A Time – A quarky twist on beloved childhood stories.

  • omabin

    SCANDAL and neighbours have been picked up for full seasons. soooo happy for scandal!

  • diane

    I tuned into Nashville thinking it was the new Reba McIntire sitcom. i was wrong on two counts. No Reba and the show was very dsappointing. ABC can cancel Nashville. just stating the obvious.

  • Christina

    CASTLE! CASTLE! CASTLE! CASTLE! :) :) :) :)

  • diane

    From the ladies auxillary at the VFW . Nashville had its chance and it will never garner any decent ratings. I say stick a fork in the Nashville………….ITS DONE!

  • Jenny

    Kept reading that Happy Endings had the new episodes already posted so I did a quick good. Pulled it up instantly must be because it airs in Canada early or something. But Alas yay!!!

  • Janet Finley

    Nashville is a great show. Leave it alone. Stop taking all the good ones off

  • Lisa

    NASHVILLE AND SCANDAL ARE SOOO GOOD!!! There are so many people I know that each and love both these shows!!! DO NOT CANCEL THEM!!!!

  • Mediacat

    What is the status of Body of Proof?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “What is the status of Body of Proof?”

    Announced as part of the 2012-13 season last May, no scheduled premiere date as yet.

  • John

    Nashville is absolutely awful..it will be cancelled. And while we’re talking about ABC: What is it about ABC that they constantly put anti-Christian shows on Sunday nights? First it was GCB Good Christian Bitches? Really? On Sunday nights?) Now we have the 666 show. It appears to me that ABC programming is run by Satan! (Not really). Do these people have no shame anymore or respect for the sabbath? MOST people in America – by far – are Christians. Why doesn’t ABC get out of the gutter and air some family programming on Sunday night?

    Also, why break up Wednesday night’s Modern Family and In the Middle with a show that the whole family cannot watch? Subergatory? Really, again?

  • Laurie

    I am so bummed! Last Resort, Scandel, Nashville and The Neighbors are all my favorites this fall. I hope they at least give us some closure in the series finale of LR!

  • amy

    Nashville is really good! PLEASE RENEW!

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