ABC: 'Nashville' Falls to A "Toss Up" For Cancellation Or Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice canceled 0.64
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.66
Last Resort :oops: 0.70
Scandal :| :| :| 0.75
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.77
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.85
Nashville :| :| :| 0.91
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.94
Suburgatory :) :) :) :) 1.06
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.88

-
With a slip down to a 2.0 rating in its second episode, ABC's Wednesday rookie Nashville joins Scandal and Castle in the ABC mediocre rated 10pm drama clubhouse. Unlike Castle, which has a syndication deal going for it and likely gets another season, both Nashville & Scandal are currently in the "toss up" zone and could go either way, cancellation or renewal, at the end of the season.

Private Practice was canceled and voted out of the low rated drama club last week.

As I noted last week, rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are doing worse than Pan Am did last season, but better than Charlie's Angels. For that reason, I still expect each to air 13 (+/- a few) episodes before assuming their final resting place in the belly of the Cancellation Bear.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

-

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Aleen j

    I love love love nashville & 666 park avenue! I’ve always loved greys since the 1st episode 1st season but please dnt take nashville from me. I really loved bcbg too & its gone :( please don’t take my shows!

  • Lindsay

    I hope that Nashville pulls through! I’m hooked. Last year I got hooked on Missing and that didn’t last. Come on Nashville!!

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures