Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Made In Jersey (F)||canceled||0.36*|
|Blue Bloods (F)||0.51|
|The Good Wife||0.67|
|Person Of Interest||1.10|
|Mike & Molly||1.12|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.20|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.25|
|2 Broke Girls||1.33|
|Two And A Half Men||1.39|
|Big Bang Theory||already renewed||1.82|
Since 2006-7, CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall
except one (just 2 in 2008-9) , so CBS typically cancels three of its Fall dramas to make room for three more the next Fall. (Edit: my miscount, there were 3 in 2008-9, thanks Riff!)
With the early cancellation of Made In Jersey, that leaves two more of the current Fall dramas left to be canceled.
Because of the wide gap in relative ratings, they'll pick those two canceled shows from among their four drama ratings "have nots": CSI:NY, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Vegas.
Sadly, as a wise man who's much closer to the syndication gods than I am noted, we don't have a good handle on what will go into the decision on which two of those four shows get the hook (primarily because syndication economics are invisible to us), but we don't need to in order to know that at least two will go.
Of course, CBS doesn't *always* cancel three Fall dramas. CBS could cancel three and then un-cancel one as they did with Unforgettable last season. And in the Fall of 2011, CBS held Undercover Boss off the schedule, opening up an hour, which allowed them to cancel just two dramas in the 2010-11 season. But unless CBS does the same next fall with Survivor or Amazing Race, or replaces an hour of sitcoms with a drama (all of which would be a much bigger surprise), that's not going to happen this season.
Note: if mid-season drama Golden Boy is renewed for another season, three of the above dramas will have to be canceled.
Yes, we'll rehash this same topic so many times in these weekly posts as to grind it into atomic sized dust. There's not much else to talk about with CBS shows this season, or any other. Buckle up!
Why aren't Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods on that list? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year.
Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules Of Engagement, at some point this season.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.