CBS: Two Of 'CSI:NY,' 'The Good Wife,' 'The Mentalist' & 'Vegas' Will Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F) canceled 0.36*
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.48
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.67
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.69
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.74
Partners :oops: 0.81
Vegas :| :| :| 0.82
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.94
Elementary :) :) :) :) 1.00
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.42
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.82

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Since 2006-7, CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall except one (just 2 in 2008-9) , so CBS typically cancels three of its Fall dramas to make room for three more the next Fall. (Edit: my miscount, there were 3 in 2008-9, thanks Riff!)

With the early cancellation of Made In Jersey, that leaves two more of the current Fall dramas left to be canceled.

Because of the wide gap in relative ratings, they'll pick those two canceled shows from among their four drama ratings "have nots": CSI:NY, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Vegas.

Sadly, as a wise man who's much closer to the syndication gods than I am noted, we don't have a good handle on what will go into the decision on which two of those four shows get the hook (primarily because syndication economics are invisible to us), but we don't need to in order to know that at least two will go.

Of course, CBS doesn't *always* cancel three Fall dramas.  CBS could cancel three and then un-cancel one as they did with Unforgettable last season. And in the Fall of 2011, CBS held Undercover Boss off the schedule, opening up an hour, which allowed them to cancel just two dramas in the 2010-11 season. But unless CBS does the same next fall with Survivor or Amazing Race, or replaces an hour of sitcoms with a drama (all of which would be a much bigger surprise), that's not going to happen this season.

Note: if mid-season drama Golden Boy is renewed for another season, three of the above dramas will have to be canceled.

Yes, we'll rehash this same topic so many times in these weekly posts as to grind it into atomic sized dust. There's not much else to talk about with CBS shows this season, or any other. Buckle up!

Why aren't Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods on that list? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules of Engagement, at some point this season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • James

    Elementary hasn’t exactly stabilised yet, has it? I think it could join those 4 as a possible one to go by the end of the season.

  • SherLOCKED

    I really don’t want to lose my Mentalist…

  • Dave

    The Mentallist is flirting with cancellation? Really? Guess moving it to Sunday night wasn’t such a great idea. Hopefully the show wraps up the ‘Red John’ case before that happens. Thought it was a pretty strong ratings driver on Thursdays.

  • MattD

    CSI:NY and Vegas seem more likely to be bear chow than the other two

  • Marina

    I really hope The Good Wife gets a reprieve, I love that show, don’t know why more people don’t watch it

  • Blake Williams

    I like all four shows but I guess CBS will cancel CSI:NY and The Mentalist.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Elementary hasn’t exactly stabilised yet, has it? I think it could join those 4 as a possible one to go by the end of the season.”

    You could be right, CBS has canceled its entire rookie drama class once since 2007 when we began running this site, but Elementary will have to drop more to add its name to that “in danger” list.

    “The Mentallist is flirting with cancellation? Really? Guess moving it to Sunday night wasn’t such a great idea.”

    From CBS’s perspective it was a fine idea, from the crazy fan perspective, not so much. They don’t own The Mentalist, they get nothing from its syndication, and Thursday at 10 is a much better timeslot to launch a new drama.

  • darius

    Cbs doesn t own The Mentalist so they don t give a damn about its syndication deal.Elementary isn t a hit so it could well end on the cancellation list by may.Csi ney york has survived in 2011 and 2012 and it s owned by cbs and more episodes,more money 4 the entire company.

  • Ultima

    @Dave
    The Mentallist is flirting with cancellation? Really? Guess moving it to Sunday night wasn’t such a great idea.

    The move has nothing to do with it. Given the relative ratings of CBS’ shows last season, The Mentalist was going to be in this position either way (even if it did a bit better than CSI, there’s no way it could actually generate more revenue for CBS than CSI does).

  • victor hugo

    There no way CBS will renew The Good Wife… maybe ther`s hope for The Menatlist and move for friday night

  • Greg

    CSI: New York and Vegas are my bets.

    Doesn’t CBS have a new Mark Burnett reality for midseason too? If that works (and it sounds much more likely that it does than Golden Boy), then The Good Wife gets put out of its misery too.

    Or maybe not. It can receive the Undercover Boss treatment and get held for midseason. In that case, they could give The Good Wife the Medium treatment and renew for a 13-episode final season (which’s rare, but it could happen).

  • xoxoxo

    If it comes to an either/or between The Mentalist and The Good Wife, the Mentalist has a higher C3 conversion in its favor, while The Good Wife has the critical acclaim and fact it has gotten Emmy love.

    But, the latter seems to be fading.

  • Karyn

    Good Wife is probably much more likely to be canceled now that it doesn’t have “Emmy nomination” status to float it up. CBS could make much better use of that space. Unless they move it to Fridays to partner with Blue Bloods for some reason.

  • ingmarhappy

    I expect that this is the final year for CSI NY. Other than that I don’t know. I’m a huge Good Wife fan, and therefore I kind of hope that they’ll get a shortened ( 10-13 episodes ) final season to wrap things up ( Emmy/Golden Globe darling – plus it will hit 100 episodes ). But in order to get that..they will have to stabilize between the 1.7 and 2.0.

  • Nope

    The Mentalist is the one that I would rather see renewed any day than the other three
    I would still like to see The Good Wife back, but would prefer The Mentalist

  • Ultima

    @victor hugo
    There no way CBS will renew The Good Wife…

    Unless they find a buyer wanting 100 episodes of it…

    Good Wife is probably much more likely to be canceled now that it doesn’t have “Emmy nomination” status to float it up.

    Fan Logic Bingo?

  • Jay S.

    They could, and probably should, drop all four of them. Time to clean house of the dead weight.

  • DW

    im going mentalist vegas maybe csi ny. one more year with the good wife thats 5 years plenty of reruns there. yes it has low ratings but it probably does better in 25-54 and isnt that what cable looks at?.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “They could, and probably should, drop all four of them. Time to clean house of the dead weight.”

    No chance they cancel all four, but they could cancel three if they wanted to add an hour of reality into the Fall premiere schedule (at say, Friday 8pm).

  • EllieMae

    NEVER should have moved Mentalist – still think its on Thursday – have to record on Sunday – not happy – better not be taken out because of a stupid move by “whoever” – wasn’t CSI-NY on the bubble last year – think that one should go – and Vegas -its ok but don’t find myself looking forward to it as much as I like Dennis I would rather that one go than Mentalist. The Good Wife don’t watch but I think a lot of people do – will see -

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