CBS: Two Of 'CSI:NY,' 'The Good Wife,' 'The Mentalist' & 'Vegas' Will Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F) canceled 0.36*
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.48
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.67
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.69
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.74
Partners :oops: 0.81
Vegas :| :| :| 0.82
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.94
Elementary :) :) :) :) 1.00
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.42
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.82

-
Since 2006-7, CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall except one (just 2 in 2008-9) , so CBS typically cancels three of its Fall dramas to make room for three more the next Fall. (Edit: my miscount, there were 3 in 2008-9, thanks Riff!)

With the early cancellation of Made In Jersey, that leaves two more of the current Fall dramas left to be canceled.

Because of the wide gap in relative ratings, they'll pick those two canceled shows from among their four drama ratings "have nots": CSI:NY, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Vegas.

Sadly, as a wise man who's much closer to the syndication gods than I am noted, we don't have a good handle on what will go into the decision on which two of those four shows get the hook (primarily because syndication economics are invisible to us), but we don't need to in order to know that at least two will go.

Of course, CBS doesn't *always* cancel three Fall dramas.  CBS could cancel three and then un-cancel one as they did with Unforgettable last season. And in the Fall of 2011, CBS held Undercover Boss off the schedule, opening up an hour, which allowed them to cancel just two dramas in the 2010-11 season. But unless CBS does the same next fall with Survivor or Amazing Race, or replaces an hour of sitcoms with a drama (all of which would be a much bigger surprise), that's not going to happen this season.

Note: if mid-season drama Golden Boy is renewed for another season, three of the above dramas will have to be canceled.

Yes, we'll rehash this same topic so many times in these weekly posts as to grind it into atomic sized dust. There's not much else to talk about with CBS shows this season, or any other. Buckle up!

Why aren't Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods on that list? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules of Engagement, at some point this season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • THE OLD MAN

    At this point I would go w/ Vegas as they could pull another Unforgettable with that one & second choice would be the Mentalist, though a close call w/ CSI NY

  • Jared

    CBS would move The Good Wife to Fridays before it cancels it. The Good Wife and Blue Bloods would make a solid Friday night for CBS.

    Its not that people don’t watch The Good Wife..this past Sundays episode had over 10 million viewers. But the problem is that it skews extremely old.

    When CBS ordered Vegas to series they had to know it would skew old as well. I hope it makes it another season because it’s actually one of the better new series on network tv.

  • rick

    Dump sitcoms…please! Howling audiences don’t make for comedy.

  • Dean-W

    The Good Wife, Vegas, Elementary, Partners and Rules of Engagement are my bets plus certainly Golden Boy and Friend Me (if it airs). With Made in Jersey already canceled CBS will renew both of CSI: NY and The Mentalist for final season !

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “At this point I would go w/ Vegas as they could pull another Unforgettable with that one”

    Unlikely. Unforgettable is a CBS/Sony production and the chatter is that Sony made CBS a deal they couldn’t refuse to bring it back to life after it was canceled. Vegas is 100% CBS, so live or die, it’s all their decision and is unlikely to be changed after being announced.

  • Robert

    I am officially done reading your polls as they have no clue on the real facts.

    The Mentalist and Good Wife are very very strong shows and to say they will be canceled is just not true.

    Goodbye Zap2it as I no longer trust your polls and think they are written to draw to facts that are not there.

    Give me grief for my opinion but these are two of the hottest shows on Tv!!

  • tv#1

    Possible CBS mid-season schedule…

    Mon:
    HIMYM
    Friend Me
    2 Broke Girls
    Mike and Molly
    Elementary

    Tue:
    NCIS
    NCIS: LA
    Vegas

    Wed:
    Survivor
    CM
    CSI

    Thur:
    TBBT
    2.5 Men
    POI
    Golden Boy

    Fri:
    CSI: NY
    Hawaii 5-0
    Blue Bloods

    Sun:
    60 Minutes
    The Amazing Race
    The Good Wife
    The Mentalist

  • Max

    At this point I think Vegas (rookie drama w/rating troubles) and The Good Wife (still no syndication deal) will be cancelled.
    Althought to cancel The Good Wife and renew CSI NY sounds like a sacrilege to me. But that’s just my taste.

  • Brian

    All STUPID CBS needs to do is move The Mentalist back to Thursday and it will again be on top..as for the rest..Cancel Blue Bloods..it’s already tired and Old!

  • ManiacalZebra

    Sadly, I think CSI:NY will be one of the ones canceled, though it’s the only one of the four I watch.

  • Melanie

    The Good Wife I think will go – it doesn’t have a syndication deal yet, its not a procedural type show to view in strip syndication easily so more episodes aren’t going to be as value added as CSI or CSI:NY. It will get to its 88 or 100 episodes and be done. Between CSI & CSI:NY who knows? It will depend on $ factors that we can only guess at. Since CBS doesn’t own the Mentalist, again, it will depend on $ factors we can’t see cost/license fee (how badly does Warners want more episodes?) vs revenue, which, with ratings down, has to be falling too.
    I think Vegas might be the new Good Wife — a sort of vanity period piece that the Network really likes despite poor ratings. I think Vegas and Blue Bloods would go together well. Vegas might be too expensive for Friday’s though.
    Elementary – I’m still watching it – but its no where near as engaging as POI when Burn Notice comes back, I’ll probably jump ship on Sherlock & Watson.

  • THE OLD MAN

    Thanks alot Bill! Now I’m in even more of a quandry.

    Think I’ll stick w/ Vegas though, w/Mentalist, CSI NY

  • Jiji Moran

    “The Mentalist” has kept good ratings this past year, and aside from the Red John crap, it has great acting and interesting stories. Once in a while you find an ensemble of actors that clicks together and make for an amazing show, people who the audience feels it knows and welcomes them every week as if they were family. “The Mentalist” has such an ensemble, I would hate to see them go.

  • Cerebro

    If I had to pick two, I’d go with CSI: NY and The Good Wife.

    CSI: NY has gotten an 11th hour reprieve the past two seasons. It can’t have much rope left. I think the plug will be pulled, for good, this year.

    The Good Wife will hit the magic “Syndication 88″ by the end of this season. I’m sure the network is making every effort to try and sell it. CBS doesn’t have much incentive to keep it around, though. The ratings have never been there. Yes, the show is a critical and awards show darling, but that doesn’t make any money. With the top-tier talent the show attracts for guest stars, it must be getting fairly expensive to produce.

  • SJ

    CSI: NY should have been cancelled two seasons ago, after its first Friday season. I really, really, really hope it’s a goner this time.

    My instinct, however, tells me that The Mentalist is the first one on the chopping block. It’s expensive, its ratings are eroding and CBS isn’t getting any syndication money from it. CSI: NY may be kept alongside of Blue Bloods for one final season of each. Vegas is the #2 show off that list. Yes, it has a famous cast, but the ratings are weak and I don’t see it becoming a critical darling any time soon.

    On pedigree alone, I think The Good Wife will manage to get one final season, provided, of course, it keeps its fall ratings in the spring, which shouldn’t be a problem as it already managed to do that last season.

  • Mark Wilkins

    I’m a fan of TGW too, but those ratings won’t be able to save it. Same thing goes for Vegas and the Mentalist. They will probably end up cancelling all four.

  • Ultima

    @Brian
    All STUPID CBS needs to do is move The Mentalist back to Thursday and it will again be on top

    1. The Mentalist was never on top.

    2. The Mentalist is in the same position relative to the renewed dramas from last season, so the move hasn’t hurt it.

    3. Are you so deluded that you actually think CBS is stupid for giving the better timeslot to a new drama that they produce as opposed to a fifth season drama that they don’t?

  • CP

    Here’s a crazy idea: finally give the axe to CSI. It’s been around forever and continues to decline in ratings (not a lot, but still) and changes cast members all the time now. It had a great run and will live on in syndication. CSI NY needs to go as well.

    I mainly say this because I want Vegas to survive. As long as it continues to win its timeslot, why not keep it? Or move it to Fridays where it seems to have a similar audience to Blue Bloods (age-wise). Just a thought.

  • MARSEPH

    My guess…

    CSI:NY is toast, bad ratings and the stars are paid pretty well (the lead at least).

    Because CBS owns Vegas it has a chance…but only if its demos hold at 2.0 or above…but if CBS cancels 2 shows this show is my bet to get the pink slip.

    The Good Wife will make it to Season 5 with a final 12 episodes

    Unforgettable is a toss-up, depends on how it does but I could see it and the Good Wife sharing a Friday 9pm timeslot

    Golden Boy is also a toss-up, no data but I hope it makes it.

    The Mentalist is a toss-up but IMO it will return for another season (the final one) on Sundays at 10pm

  • BiiaTunney

    seriously…..The Mentalist….no :(

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures