CBS: Two Of 'CSI:NY,' 'The Good Wife,' 'The Mentalist' & 'Vegas' Will Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F) canceled 0.36*
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.48
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.67
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.69
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.74
Partners :oops: 0.81
Vegas :| :| :| 0.82
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.94
Elementary :) :) :) :) 1.00
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.42
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.82

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Since 2006-7, CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall except one (just 2 in 2008-9) , so CBS typically cancels three of its Fall dramas to make room for three more the next Fall. (Edit: my miscount, there were 3 in 2008-9, thanks Riff!)

With the early cancellation of Made In Jersey, that leaves two more of the current Fall dramas left to be canceled.

Because of the wide gap in relative ratings, they'll pick those two canceled shows from among their four drama ratings "have nots": CSI:NY, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Vegas.

Sadly, as a wise man who's much closer to the syndication gods than I am noted, we don't have a good handle on what will go into the decision on which two of those four shows get the hook (primarily because syndication economics are invisible to us), but we don't need to in order to know that at least two will go.

Of course, CBS doesn't *always* cancel three Fall dramas.  CBS could cancel three and then un-cancel one as they did with Unforgettable last season. And in the Fall of 2011, CBS held Undercover Boss off the schedule, opening up an hour, which allowed them to cancel just two dramas in the 2010-11 season. But unless CBS does the same next fall with Survivor or Amazing Race, or replaces an hour of sitcoms with a drama (all of which would be a much bigger surprise), that's not going to happen this season.

Note: if mid-season drama Golden Boy is renewed for another season, three of the above dramas will have to be canceled.

Yes, we'll rehash this same topic so many times in these weekly posts as to grind it into atomic sized dust. There's not much else to talk about with CBS shows this season, or any other. Buckle up!

Why aren't Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods on that list? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules of Engagement, at some point this season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Ultima

    @Mark Wilkins
    They will probably end up cancelling all four.

    The only way that happens is if they renew both Elementary and Golden Boy and add an hour of reality to their fall schedule.

    Possible, yes, but very unlikely.

  • Chris L

    After how poorly Made in Jersey did, I can’t see CBS wanting to launch a new drama on Fridays next season. So I think it’s possible 3 of the above 4 will be canceled. All four shows are going to fight for that last Friday slot (since I think it’s likely some combination of Undercover Boss and The Job [if successful at midseason] will inherit 8 pm and Blue Bloods isn’t going anywhere at 10 pm). CSI:NY is likely too expensive, The Good Wife isn’t the awards magnet it used to be, and CBS has no ownership stake in The Mentalist. Process of elimination says old-skewing Vegas would get that slot, and that makes sense since it probably shares Blue’s audience.

  • babs

    The Mentalist had good ratings last season so CBS shouldn’t have moved it. I’ll never watch CBS again if they cancel it this soon, it should have at least seven seasons. Cancel Elementary and move Mentalist back to Thursday. Just can’t imagine life without The Mentalist.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “After how poorly Made in Jersey did, I can’t see CBS wanting to launch a new drama on Fridays next season.”

    I wouldn’t be shocked if there were either 3 old dramas on Friday, or two dramas and an hour of reality, and CBS used Monday, Tuesday and Thursday 10pm to launch new dramas.

  • Ricky

    My guesses: CSI: NY and Good Wife are about 80% guaranteed cancellation. Vegas, maybe 75%, and The Mentalist, 50% (though that number could rise if the show’s ratings continue to plunge after football. So it better not continue to plunge!)

    If you wanna have some fun, come play the Elimination Game: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/play-the-elimination-game/152342/comment-page-15/#comments

  • Ultima

    @babs
    Wow, that’s some rapid progressing through the Stages of Grief!

    The Mentalist had good ratings last season so CBS shouldn’t have moved it.

    Stage 1 – Denial.

    I’ll never watch CBS again if they cancel it this soon, it should have at least seven seasons.

    Stage 2 – Anger.

    Cancel Elementary and move Mentalist back to Thursday.

    Stage 3 – Bargaining.

    Just can’t imagine life without The Mentalist.

    Stage 4 – Depression.

    All that’s left is Acceptence – you’re almost there!

  • Shabbir

    No chance mentallist will be cancelled. With big contract already signed with Simon Barker and with international sales, there is more chance Red John awarded man of the year than this show cancelled.

  • Shabbir

    Must admit its getting predictable as 3 out of 4 episodes, Ive figured out who the killer was and how they did it well before the end. Its a shame as it was a great series but I guess even the writers are struggling to come up with new ideas.

  • Debsafan

    Putting the Mentalist on Sunday was a way to get rid of it. That’s how they got rid of CSI Miami. Comes on 20 minutes late. Good Wife never should have be renewed to begin with. One reason Elementary is being watch is there is nothing else on TV to watch at that time. I watch it but don’t care for it. Blue Bloods is another show that I don’t see how it stays on TV. 2 1/2 men is not funny anymore. All about sex and dope. There are good shows on TV, but if they don’t make it the first week then they get cancelled.

  • CrimTV

    @Ultima

    LOOOOL :D

  • Brian

    The Mentalist and Vegas can stay! Everything else can go :)

  • hovlandrules

    If CBS cancels The Mentalist don’t expect me to invest my time in any of their shows in the near future. Why did they move a top 10 show to the death bed of Sunday at 10pm. Did Bruno get into a fight with Moonves?

    CBS has enough mediocre shows to put in that time slot. This past Sunday The Mentalist ended at 11:55. No one I know stays up that late on Sunday.

    What a shame!!!!

  • Billy martins

    Here is my opinion for CBS shecdule for next season 2013/14 here is what to get rid of & to stay on they air for another season. Here is the get rid pile;2&/men,csi ny,how I met your mother,Ncis,& not to rid of pile is the good wife,csi,& Vegas.also the shecdule for next yr is like starting with Sunday.
    7pm 60 minutes
    8pm amazing race
    9pm the mentalist
    10pm Vegas
    Monday
    8pm big bang theory
    8:30pm new
    9pm 2 broke girls
    9:30pm mike&molly
    10:00pm blue blood”new time”
    Tuesday
    8pm Ncis Los Angeles”new time”
    9pm Hawaii five 0″new time”
    10pm the good wife
    Wednesday
    8pm survivor
    9pm criminal minds
    10pm new
    Thursday
    8pm new
    8:30pm new
    9pm person of interst
    10pm elementary
    Friday
    8pm undercover boss
    9pm new
    10pm csi “final season”

  • s0303

    i love tgw…my favorite show…but i have resigned myself that it will probably be cancelled this year :(

  • eridapo

    The bear will not be feeding on Vegas or Elementary anytime soon…

    Vegas and Elementary just got full season orders.

    http://tvline.com/2012/10/23/vegas-elementary-full-season-cbs/

  • Pedro

    I’m concerned about Survivor not be renewed.

  • ATXCountry

    Billy Martins, why would they move Big Bang Theory. It is a proven powerhouse in the 7pm Thursday spot even against Idol, X-Factor and basically anything thrown at it. WIth Big Bang as a lead in on Thursdays, CBS has a sliver of hope of using it to launch a new comedy next year.

  • Danie

    @Ultima

    “3. Are you so deluded that you actually think CBS is stupid for giving the better timeslot to a new drama that they produce as opposed to a fifth season drama that they don’t?”

    Thing is, the new drama didn’t work out. So why keep killing a show that had solid numbers? This The Mentalist ratings have been sliding for three years thing, well TV ratings have been sliding.

    My point is that The Mentalist on Tuesdays or Thurdays at 10pm would do the same or probably better than the current dramas are doing right now. Also, CBS does not give a damn about The Mentalist because WB owns it. Why they picked it up in the first place?

  • Pepper

    I predict that Vegas will be moved to Fridays, and CSI:NY will finally be let go. Not sure about the other two.

  • Morgan Wick

    If they cancel The Mentalist (or The Good Wife), I wonder if they decide not to replace it on Sunday nights, at least in fall, and finally make their Sunday schedule football-overrun-resistant like Fox has.

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