CBS: Two Of 'CSI:NY,' 'The Good Wife,' 'The Mentalist' & 'Vegas' Will Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F) canceled 0.36*
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.48
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.67
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.69
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.74
Partners :oops: 0.81
Vegas :| :| :| 0.82
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.94
Elementary :) :) :) :) 1.00
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.42
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.82

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Since 2006-7, CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall except one (just 2 in 2008-9) , so CBS typically cancels three of its Fall dramas to make room for three more the next Fall. (Edit: my miscount, there were 3 in 2008-9, thanks Riff!)

With the early cancellation of Made In Jersey, that leaves two more of the current Fall dramas left to be canceled.

Because of the wide gap in relative ratings, they'll pick those two canceled shows from among their four drama ratings "have nots": CSI:NY, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Vegas.

Sadly, as a wise man who's much closer to the syndication gods than I am noted, we don't have a good handle on what will go into the decision on which two of those four shows get the hook (primarily because syndication economics are invisible to us), but we don't need to in order to know that at least two will go.

Of course, CBS doesn't *always* cancel three Fall dramas.  CBS could cancel three and then un-cancel one as they did with Unforgettable last season. And in the Fall of 2011, CBS held Undercover Boss off the schedule, opening up an hour, which allowed them to cancel just two dramas in the 2010-11 season. But unless CBS does the same next fall with Survivor or Amazing Race, or replaces an hour of sitcoms with a drama (all of which would be a much bigger surprise), that's not going to happen this season.

Note: if mid-season drama Golden Boy is renewed for another season, three of the above dramas will have to be canceled.

Yes, we'll rehash this same topic so many times in these weekly posts as to grind it into atomic sized dust. There's not much else to talk about with CBS shows this season, or any other. Buckle up!

Why aren't Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods on that list? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules of Engagement, at some point this season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Morgan Wick

    “The bear will not be feeding on Vegas or Elementary anytime soon…

    Vegas and Elementary just got full season orders.”

    Doesn’t mean it won’t feed on them by May.

  • Randy

    I think CSI: NY & the Good Wife will be cancelled. CSI is obvious why, and the Good Wife has been given too many chances already.

  • Angie

    what a load of balls. We are only into 3-4 episodes and already you have predicted who will be cancelled. And oh yes the usual even if naf ratings if it is a emmy fave then lets renew and also wow bad ratings but hey we want a syndication deal so go ahead and renew.

    I am so tired every year of hearing this. CBS friday night line up is doing absolutley awful. I love CSI NY but those ratings it should go. But Blue Bloods doing just as bad yet it is a guarantee to renew. TGW with those ratings should go. Elementary and vegas newbies slowly going down. The mentalist when it airs at a decent time gets 2.1 better then vegas but when you stick it on at 11pm what do you expect but to get a 1.5 at 11pm i think is quite good. If cbs didn’t give a toss about the mentalist syndication cos they make nothing from it then why is it in its 5th year. When the time period steadies then we will see true picture for it. It won tus, it won thurs and it will survive sundays.

    But quite frankly what on earth are you making predictions this early for.

  • Herb Finn

    When did 88 become the new 100?

  • NewEnglandMike

    I think Vegas will grow during the season so I would put it last on the Bear’s list. Could be wrong but it strikes me that it will catch on.

  • Carm

    NOOOOOOOOO! NOT THE GOOD WIFE OR THE MENTALIST????????????
    ARE YOU CRAZY CBS?????

  • Fed

    @Pedro

    Survivor is doing just fine. It is safe not only because it beats all other reality shows on CBS but also half of their scripted ones and is cheaper than the other ones. And it has very good ad rates :). Amazing race on the other hand is in a little trouble. I think it is 80% safe for now but if ratings go down to 2.4, 2.5 it may be bumped to mid season/summer.

  • Ultima

    @Danie
    Thing is, the new drama didn’t work out.

    How was your trip to the future? You didn’t happen to check who won the next couple of Super Bowls while you were there, did you?

    As of right now, Elementary is doing just fine. It’s certainly not doing any worse than The Mentalist would be doing in that timeslot.

    So why keep killing a show that had solid numbers?

    Obviously, because networks don’t give up on their highest rated freshman show in October…

    You may not like it, but CBS’ top priority is not The Mentalist, it is making their entire schedule work and making money.

    There was no way they were going to put a freshman show in the Sunday 10pm timeslot, so they had to move something and The Mentalist was an obvious choice. They’re not going to rearrange their schedule at this point just so The Mentalist can get a 5-10% bump either.

  • AJ

    CSI NY cancelled
    The Good Wife moves to Friday
    The Mentalist renewed
    Vegas cancelled

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “When did 88 become the new 100?”

    Hard to say, but it’s been fairly recent. My inclination is to say that it’s been in the last five years, but that’s the time period we’ve been running the site, and so I am observationally biased since my memory about it wouldn’t extend back any further.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “what a load of balls. We are only into 3-4 episodes and already you have predicted who will be cancelled.”

    What are you talking about? There’s *one* show in the list predicted to be canceled (Partners).

    “But quite frankly what on earth are you making predictions this early for.”

    Thank goodness I started right when the season did, Made In Jersey was canceled after just 2 episodes!

  • Casey

    Bill, I actually remember when the magic number for getting a show to syndication was 65 and I’m only 31!

    As to the question of the week and for a lot of weeks to come, I think Vegas is more likely to be canceled than renewed because it has a longer way to go to even get to syndication. I realize that eventually the syndication Gods are going to demand that new shows be sent in to syndication as opposed to getting more money from existing series and for that reason even though I think it is more likely to be canceled I still consider Vegas to be a toss up.

    I don’t even think The Good Wife has been sold in to syndication yet and that’s a bit odd but as a result I can easily see the show ending.

  • Kingron84

    As much as I love the Mentalist you totally have to understand why they did this. The Mentalist has shown even last year moving to Friday for one night that it will get its ratings in any time slot so it can be moved to make way for new shows.

    Once football season ends, the final 12 episodes will probably pull in better ratings because more people will know exactly the time it comes on.

    Third if the Mentalist is cancelled I could easily seeing another network snatch them up that needs ratings.

  • tlh45

    I think the Mentalist has gotten pretty boring. Don’t watch Elementary, Vegas, or The Good Wife. The only one of these I watch is CSI NY!!!!! Love Gary Sinise and the rest of the cast. Come on CBS…Every year we have to beg to keep CSI NY on another season. The show has a huge fan base and considering the night and time it’s on…it does pretty well. Besides…we the fans want a 200th episode…you owe us that much! Don’t take away CSI NY! This season has been amazing so far and if you would stop moving it around maybe it’s followers would keep following!

  • alexjones

    @angie
    he’s just making predictions on things as they stand now, these predictions are subject to change as the season progresses.

  • Court

    I would the good wife and mentalist should be cancel . Csiny has big group fan went see stay on.

  • Barbarossa

    I’ve recently quit watching the Good Wife, I don’t like some of the things the Kings did in season 3 and the first couple episodes of this season, but I would like to see it hit 100, and maybe get some of that magic back and end on a high note

    I think CSI:NY is done for sure, and a toss-up between Vegas/The Mentalist for the other

  • g

    I predict Unforgettable will premiere in spring (not summer), and get good enough ratings to land on the fall schedule. CSINY, Good Wife and Elementary will be gone.

  • HG

    O.O My goodness! And where did this Ultima person come from? Every comment that s/he has posted has been snotty, disdainful or mocking. I’ve seen several comments by different people saying at core what this person are saying without the snark!

  • psychic

    Does the Bear accept heartfelt, desperate prayers? Or is he merciless in his considerations?

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