CBS: Two Of 'CSI:NY,' 'The Good Wife,' 'The Mentalist' & 'Vegas' Will Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F) canceled 0.36*
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.48
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.67
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.69
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.74
Partners :oops: 0.81
Vegas :| :| :| 0.82
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.94
Elementary :) :) :) :) 1.00
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.42
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.82

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Since 2006-7, CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall except one (just 2 in 2008-9) , so CBS typically cancels three of its Fall dramas to make room for three more the next Fall. (Edit: my miscount, there were 3 in 2008-9, thanks Riff!)

With the early cancellation of Made In Jersey, that leaves two more of the current Fall dramas left to be canceled.

Because of the wide gap in relative ratings, they'll pick those two canceled shows from among their four drama ratings "have nots": CSI:NY, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Vegas.

Sadly, as a wise man who's much closer to the syndication gods than I am noted, we don't have a good handle on what will go into the decision on which two of those four shows get the hook (primarily because syndication economics are invisible to us), but we don't need to in order to know that at least two will go.

Of course, CBS doesn't *always* cancel three Fall dramas.  CBS could cancel three and then un-cancel one as they did with Unforgettable last season. And in the Fall of 2011, CBS held Undercover Boss off the schedule, opening up an hour, which allowed them to cancel just two dramas in the 2010-11 season. But unless CBS does the same next fall with Survivor or Amazing Race, or replaces an hour of sitcoms with a drama (all of which would be a much bigger surprise), that's not going to happen this season.

Note: if mid-season drama Golden Boy is renewed for another season, three of the above dramas will have to be canceled.

Yes, we'll rehash this same topic so many times in these weekly posts as to grind it into atomic sized dust. There's not much else to talk about with CBS shows this season, or any other. Buckle up!

Why aren't Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods on that list? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules of Engagement, at some point this season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • William

    I like the Mentalist, if it goes I hope there’s at least a conclusion to the whole Red John storyline. I’d be a little upset if it was cancelled with no clear resolution to the series. I do think Good Wife and Vegas will go though and maybe some sort of word on a final season for both CSI:NY and Mentalist

  • tahina

    Not Vegas, it got full season orders. along with Elementary.yeah!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Not Vegas, it got full season orders”

    The predictions are for decisions at the end of this season. The full season order for Vegas changes nothing.

    For reference, all three of the other shows in the headline already had full season orders.

  • Mike

    NCIS and Person of Interest are my two favorite shows! I’m glad they’re certain renewals, not that expected anything else :)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    The predictions are for decisions at the end of this season.

    I know it would drastically reduce the number of comments, but I favor implementing something on these posts where instead of something like “captcha” people have to pass a test before they can comment. Two very simple questions like “what is the difference between a back nine pick up and renewal” and “When we say cancelled or renewed we mean by a.) next Friday or b.) by when fall schedules are announced at May upfronts.”

  • david ennis

    :-(, love “The Good Wife’, hope it gets a renewal on life.

  • Jackie

    No…not “The Mentalist”.

  • Emily

    baring a turnaround my two picks would be vegas and the mentalist, vegas is all but certain in my book

  • Nick

    Vegas, The Good Wife, and CSI: NY will be canceled. Not sure about Golden Boy, depends on where it’s placed on the schedule.

    CBS 2013-14 schedule:

    Mon-
    8: The Brady Bunch sequel (new)
    8:30: Mike & Molly
    9: 2 Broke Girls
    9:30: Untitled Vanessa McCarthy project (new)
    10: Elementary

    Tue-
    8: NCIS
    9: Beverly Hills Cop (new)
    10: NCIS: Los Angeles

    Wed-
    8: Survivor
    9: Criminal Minds
    10: Darkness Falls (new)

    Thu-
    8: The Big Bang Theory
    8:30: Two and a Half Men (final season)
    9: Person of Interest
    10: Intelligence (new)

    Fri-
    8: Undercover Boss
    9: Blue Bloods
    10: Hawaii 5-0

    Sat-
    8: CSI (r)
    9: The Mentalist (r)
    10: 48 Hours Mystery

    Sun-
    7: 60 Minutes
    8: The Amazing Race
    9: CSI
    10: The Mentalist

  • Declan

    @ Nick

    There’s a show called the Intelligence?! Never heard about it until now. What’s it about?

  • Holly

    @Robert,

    I favor implementing something on these posts where instead of something like “captcha” people have to pass a test before they can comment.

    I like it. :)

  • Judy912

    I am sadden to learn that my favorite TV program ‘The Mentalist’ may be canceled. Please CBS, say it isn’t so!! I am hoping after the end of the football season this series will do better in the ratings.

  • Thomas T

    Any chance The Mentalist gets picked up by TNT for a final season if CBS cans it?

  • Pete

    Since CBS wants to change its schedule as little as possible, I don’t think BOTH The Good Wife AND The Mentalist will be canceled by the end of this season. Usually, one of them stay in its original time slot, and another is moved/canceled.

  • Captiosus

    I think CSI:NY is almost guaranteed. Just my own gut feeling. It seems as though the CSI “bubble” has burst and the cancellation of CSI: Miami along with the constant cast shake ups on the original CSI has shown that the CSI brand has finally reached a breaking point. Nothing wrong with that at all – CBS can, at least, be happy that they were able to ride the CSI bubble for a very, very long time.

    The second show is harder to choose. I’m inclined to go with The Mentalist simply because of the lack of financial incentive for CBS and it hasn’t really been the same kind of “critical darling” as The Good Wife, which may have at least another year of life in it based solely on its past critical success.

    I actually think they’ll keep Vegas even if it under performs with the hope that they can make it successful in with a sophomore season attempt.

  • Shawn1

    @Ultima: You continue to insinuate that TM wouldn’t do better than Elementary Thursdays at 10. As a matter of fact, TM never scored less than a 2.5 rating and 12 million viewers up until May in that timeslot. In only its third week, Elementary is down to a 2.3 and less than 11 million viewers despite POI being one of the few stable shows and providing a healthy lead-in. Meanwhile, TM did a similar 2.1 twice and build on TGW’s pathetic 1.7 lead-ins on a tough night for CBS in a tough timeslot. With a ~3.0 lead-in and as many as 14 million viewers, you don’t think TM would hold draw better than a 2.3 and 11 million viewers on Thursdays?

    I admire your prophetic skills. At the same time, the numbers lead me to believe that a) TM would (continue to) do better than Elementary on Thursdays and b) Elementary would be DOA if it aired Sundays at 10.

    As far as renewals and cancellations are concerned, I do agree that the four shows Bill mentioned will continue to be the ones on the bubble, yet it’s almost impossible to predict what CBS will do. The amount of variables that could impact the network’s decision is crazy. If Elementary couldn’t stop the bleeding this week, it might be fifth show on that list sooner than later.

  • Ultima

    @Shwan
    You continue to insinuate that TM wouldn’t do better than Elementary Thursdays at 10.

    No, I’m flat out saying that it would not do better.

    As a matter of fact, TM never scored less than a 2.5 rating and 12 million viewers up until May in that timeslot

    I see you have trouble grasping the concept that a show’s ratings will decline over time. The 2.4 average that The Mentalist in April/May is what you should be using for your expectations, not the 2.5s+ it had prior to that.

    Here’s the average rating for the first three episodes of the Mentalist, on Thursdays, each fall…
    2009 – 3.6
    2010 – 3.1 (-14%)
    2011 – 2.7 (-13%)

    The expected ratings for the first three episodes of The Mentalist would average a ~2.3 this season. The low for Elementary is a 2.3 (it’s average a 2.6).

  • Ultima

    @Shawn
    Elementary would be DOA if it aired Sundays at 10.

    That argument is effectively an endorsement of CBS’ decision to move The Mentalist in order to give Elementary a better chance at success.

  • Jake

    CBS network is run by morons. The Mentalist was a huge hit every year averaging 13- 15 million viewers every week. TERRIBLE idea to move it to Sundays. And why isn’t Hawaii 5-0 not on the list? The ratings have been horrible for it this season.
    CBS should cancel Hawaii 5-0, CSI: NY, and The Good Wife. And move The Mentalist to a night of the week where it can get the ratings it deserves. but in order to do this the big wigs running CBS would have to have half a brain.

  • Jake

    CBS should cancel Hawaii 5-0, CSI: NY, The Good Wife, How I Met Your Mother, and Partners. Then rearrange their schedule to this for January 2013:
    Monday
    8pm Rules of Engagement
    8:30 Mike and Molly
    9pm Two & 1/2 Men
    9:30 2 Broke Girls
    10pm Golden Boy (new)

    Tuesday
    8pm NCIS
    9pm NCIS: LA
    10pm Vegas (new)

    Wednesday
    8pm Survivor
    9pm The Mentalist
    10pm Beverly Hills Cop (new)

    Thursday
    8pm The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 Friend Me (new)
    9pm Person Of Interest
    10pm Elementary (new)

    Friday
    8pm Amazing Race
    9pm CSI
    10pm Blue Bloods

    Sunday
    7pm NFL OT
    8pm 60min
    9pm Criminal Minds
    10pm Undercover Boss

    What’s everyone else think? I believe this is a winning primetime schedule.

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