CBS: Two Of 'CSI:NY,' 'The Good Wife,' 'The Mentalist' & 'Vegas' Will Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F) canceled 0.36*
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.48
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.67
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.69
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.74
Partners :oops: 0.81
Vegas :| :| :| 0.82
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.94
Elementary :) :) :) :) 1.00
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.42
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.82

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Since 2006-7, CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall except one (just 2 in 2008-9) , so CBS typically cancels three of its Fall dramas to make room for three more the next Fall. (Edit: my miscount, there were 3 in 2008-9, thanks Riff!)

With the early cancellation of Made In Jersey, that leaves two more of the current Fall dramas left to be canceled.

Because of the wide gap in relative ratings, they'll pick those two canceled shows from among their four drama ratings "have nots": CSI:NY, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Vegas.

Sadly, as a wise man who's much closer to the syndication gods than I am noted, we don't have a good handle on what will go into the decision on which two of those four shows get the hook (primarily because syndication economics are invisible to us), but we don't need to in order to know that at least two will go.

Of course, CBS doesn't *always* cancel three Fall dramas.  CBS could cancel three and then un-cancel one as they did with Unforgettable last season. And in the Fall of 2011, CBS held Undercover Boss off the schedule, opening up an hour, which allowed them to cancel just two dramas in the 2010-11 season. But unless CBS does the same next fall with Survivor or Amazing Race, or replaces an hour of sitcoms with a drama (all of which would be a much bigger surprise), that's not going to happen this season.

Note: if mid-season drama Golden Boy is renewed for another season, three of the above dramas will have to be canceled.

Yes, we'll rehash this same topic so many times in these weekly posts as to grind it into atomic sized dust. There's not much else to talk about with CBS shows this season, or any other. Buckle up!

Why aren't Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods on that list? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules of Engagement, at some point this season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Aeiouy

    Tough for me as a viewer as csi Ny is only show I don’t watch. Since I really enjoy mentalist and good wife though and have less vested in Vegas I would hope that goes.

    How does unforgettable fit in? I am still shocked they picked it up but what if something weird happened and if became a less horrible show people wanted to watch?

    Is it considered a sorbet for the bear to cleanse the pallet?

  • maria

    Mentalist should really wrap up its Red John nemesis, its beginning to be
    boring. Solve Red John, then move on to other crime cases. If they don’t
    they better cancel the show.

  • CBSviewer

    2013-2014 CBS Schedule:

    Monday:
    8:00PM – How I Met Your Mother
    8:30PM – NEW COMEDY
    9:00PM – 2 Broke Girls
    9:00PM – Mike & Molly
    10:00PM –

    Tuesday:
    8:00PM – NCIS
    9:00PM – NEW DRAMA
    10:00PM

    Wednesday:
    8:00PM – Survivor
    9:00PM – NCIS: Los Angeles
    10:00PM – CSI: Crime Scene Investigation

    Thursday:
    8:00PM – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30PM – Two and a Half Men (Final Season)
    9:00PM – Person of Interest
    10:00PM – NEW DRAMA

    Friday:
    8:00PM – CSI: NY
    9:00PM – Criminal Minds
    10:00PM – Blue Bloods

    Saturday:
    8:00PM – Crimetime Saturday
    9:00PM – Crimetime Saturday
    10:00PM – 48 Hours

    Sunday:
    7:00PM – 60 Minutes
    8:00PM – The Amazing Race
    9:00PM – Hawaii Five-0
    10:00PM – The Mentalist

  • CBSviewer

    Sorry I forgot to put Vegas on Tuesday at 10 and a NEW DRAMA on Monday at 10 :)

  • tahina

    @Bill Gorman- I understand it, but Im happy the network gave a chance to both shows, and that is enough for me ..for now.

  • chase

    While i love the mentalist. I would like to cbs to annouce the end before the last ep airs. They are bad about this but Mentlist needs time to wrap up the red john story. Give it and The Good wife final 13 ep seasons one can air in the fall one can air in the spring on Sunday night please.

  • cas

    I am sad about the Mentalist possibly being canceled. I feel like when CBS made CSI:Miami move to Sunday nights they killed that too. I mean who wants to stay up and watch a show from 11-12 because it preempted all the time because of football. I feel like CBS should consider things like that. I guess if the Mentalist gets canceled and they move something else to that time slot I will never watch it because the same thing will happen again.

  • Shawn1

    @Ultima: You can certainly “flat out” portray something as a fact. However, if these supposed facts are merely based on speculative assumptions or, at best, somewhat educated guesses, you won’t be too surprised to realize that some people don’t confuse your insights with gospel. That said, the conviction with which you state your debatable points is impressive. Kudos!

    I see that you conveniently come up with dubious causalities and only use selected data to support your claims.

    1) Simply because a show has had similar season-to-season gains or losses, it doesn’t mean that this is a permanent pattern. Older shows aren’t unlikely to bottom out at some point.

    2) TM’s 2.4 average you brought up is hardly representative or indicative of the future, given that a) it’s only a five-episode sample, and b) spring ratings are lower than fall ratings.

    3) While I’m supposed to believe that TM would have inevitably declined based on limited and selective spring ratings as well as semi-scientific predictions on your part, you–once again conveniently–point to Elementary’s average as being indicative of its ratings superiority. That average is even more worthless than TM’s spring average because Elementary is a new show, scored inflated ratings for its premiere, and lost viewers every week.

    4) The 2.3 you would expect TM to score on Thursdays is probably a wild, not an educated guess. Considering that TM scored a 2.1 twice on Sundays despite the more competitive timeslot and TGW’s poor lead-in, a 2.3 on Thursday sounds like an estimate way too pessimistic. Meanwhile, Elementary isn’t unlikely to decline further.

    4) POI was actually up in week 2 and 3 compared to last season and thus provided an even better lead-in.

    By the way, I never said it was a bad decision to move an aging, WB-owned show like TM to Sundays in favor of new dramas as well as syndicated, CBS-owned dramas. Then again, I have no problem pointing out that said old show would still be better at getting the job done than most of the new shows. On paper TM’s the right show to sacrifice for new dramas, even though it certainly would do better than Vegas and very well could do better than Elementary. CBS could do better business with TM and wastes its potential in favor of shows that don’t work.

  • Precious

    Just saw the ratings for VEGAS this week, it is now certain to be cancelled!
    A 1.5 for a show in its first season does not equal a second season. CBS announced that it had been picked up for a full season, but I think they will definitely reduce the number of episodes if this performance continues!

  • KJ Styles

    CSI NY was only renewed last season because they didn’t want to premiere two new dramas on Fridays. It won’t have the same luck this year.

    The Good Wife was only renewed because of it’s Emmy nomination for Julianna and it wanted to get enough episodes for syndication. It still doesn’t have a syndication deal, hence it’s ratings don’t warrant another season.

    Vegas is a rookie that’s getting similar ratings to Unforgettable. It’s actually a pretty good show but it won’t be back next season if it’s ratings don’t improve. For some reason, nothing seems to succeed when aired behind the NCIS Twins. I know Good Wife was there two seasons ago, but it’s ratings stunk too and got renewed because of the reasons stated above, I hope CBS wises up and airs Hawaii Five-0 Tuesdays at 10 next year since it’s popular with NCIS fans (myself included).

    The Mentalist is the only one of the four shows that I see getting renewed. I predict it’ll be moved to Fridays at 9 to lead in Blue Bloods next year, and get led in by Undercover Boss.

  • Declan

    @ Jake

    Why would you put Criminal Mindsbon Sunday? It seems to be doing fine on Wednesdays.

  • Declan

    *criminal minds on*

    Sorry for the typo

  • Aeiouy

    I have been against the stretching of the red John story line on the mentalist for a while, the problem is they have painted themselves in a corner. The current character of Patrick Jane would never continue working at the cbi if red John was really gone. Thus the show would be over. They could have developed the character to have other reasons to stay but now it is worse as the character has evolved to never continuing there.

    So red John will likely involve the wrap up of the show at least as far as their final series order.

  • Cameron

    Vegas is a good show and is just a victim of a poor time slot partnered with a high budget. And The Good Wife is an amazing Show. I will be really mad if it is canceled.

  • Cj morton

    Although it probably will be csi ny that eta cancelled, I REALLY hope the mentalist and csi:ny are renewed! Two of my favorite shows!!
    But, if mentalist goes…. I might go mental! Love this show so much!

  • cris

    Vegas will be cancelled and Unforgettable will return

  • Declan

    I don’t think you can blame mentalist if it does get cancelled. It after all, was CBS faultl for changing it’s time-slot anyway. I remember someone (cant remember who) saying that ones of its episodes ended at 11:55. Like most people I can’t stay up that late because I have class the next day (…college ????). So of course it’s expected to get low ratings. That and with them dragging out the Red John story line. Can someone tell me why CBS moved it in the first place?

  • HG

    <i<For some reason, nothing seems to succeed when aired behind the NCIS Twins. KJ Styles

    I know one: The Mentalist! When it premiered after NCIS, that was its best season. After the moved (new night and new hour) it declined a bit but held strong in its slot for the remaining seasons. Until … now >:O

    Granted, it was only NCIS but to be honest, of the NCIS duo, THAT’s the one it counts as a strong lead in.

  • Lauren

    While I agree the Mentalist is fading, even though I’m a big fan. I figured this would be the last season regardless of what it’s time-slot was.

    My question is I’ve read comments about why Mentalist was moved to Sunday, and it seems that it had to do with CBS no longer owning it, so they aren’t making any money off of it.

    Could someone confirm that for me please or explain it?

  • C Whitty

    I see the Mentalist going and I have a feeling that Elementary will continue to fall but reference CSI NY we know in the short term (1-2 years) it has to go I just feel its syndication value will be more than TGW nonetheless with its acclaim could TGW be cancelled? So difficult but i’m going to be cancelled

    Mentalist
    Elementary
    Vegas

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