CBS: Two Of 'CSI:NY,' 'The Good Wife,' 'The Mentalist' & 'Vegas' Will Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F) canceled 0.36*
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.48
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.67
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.69
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.74
Partners :oops: 0.81
Vegas :| :| :| 0.82
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.94
Elementary :) :) :) :) 1.00
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.42
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.82

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Since 2006-7, CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall except one (just 2 in 2008-9) , so CBS typically cancels three of its Fall dramas to make room for three more the next Fall. (Edit: my miscount, there were 3 in 2008-9, thanks Riff!)

With the early cancellation of Made In Jersey, that leaves two more of the current Fall dramas left to be canceled.

Because of the wide gap in relative ratings, they'll pick those two canceled shows from among their four drama ratings "have nots": CSI:NY, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Vegas.

Sadly, as a wise man who's much closer to the syndication gods than I am noted, we don't have a good handle on what will go into the decision on which two of those four shows get the hook (primarily because syndication economics are invisible to us), but we don't need to in order to know that at least two will go.

Of course, CBS doesn't *always* cancel three Fall dramas.  CBS could cancel three and then un-cancel one as they did with Unforgettable last season. And in the Fall of 2011, CBS held Undercover Boss off the schedule, opening up an hour, which allowed them to cancel just two dramas in the 2010-11 season. But unless CBS does the same next fall with Survivor or Amazing Race, or replaces an hour of sitcoms with a drama (all of which would be a much bigger surprise), that's not going to happen this season.

Note: if mid-season drama Golden Boy is renewed for another season, three of the above dramas will have to be canceled.

Yes, we'll rehash this same topic so many times in these weekly posts as to grind it into atomic sized dust. There's not much else to talk about with CBS shows this season, or any other. Buckle up!

Why aren't Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods on that list? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules of Engagement, at some point this season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Shawn1

    The one thing I am sure of is that YOU are not going to be cancelled, C Whitty. Vegas, The Good Wife, CSI: NY, The Mentalist, Elementary and midseason drama Golden Boy–those are the dramas of which an indefinite number will be cancelled. At this point, Elementary is the one most likely to stay, although that could change as early as tomorrow.

  • POI

    I bet CBS is regretting giving Vegas a full season but i like the show and i will enjoy it while it lasts, the netwrok is down this season but it still might win the season because it still has amazingly good shows that people still watch and i hope their monday line up can go back to what it was last season because without 2.5 men its going down and i think they should renew 2.5 men for 2 more seasons and keep it on monday, dont fix what is not broken CBS You Should Know That.

  • Ultima

    @Shawn1
    You can certainly “flat out” portray something as a fact. However, if these supposed facts are merely based on speculative assumptions or, at best, somewhat educated guesses, you won’t be too surprised to realize that some people don’t confuse your insights with gospel.

    SIGH.

    You said “You continue to insinuate that TM wouldn’t do better than Elementary Thursdays at 10.”

    My response and the use of the phrase “flat out saying (it)” was because I was in fact not insinuating anything, I had directly stated my opinion.

    I was not presuming my educated guesses to be fact, I was correcting your misinterpretation of my position.

    I think the problem is that you have no idea what the word “insinuate” actually means, so you were confused by my response.

    Pro tip – don’t use big words you don’t understand.

  • Ultima

    @Shawn
    Simply because a show has had similar season-to-season gains or losses, it doesn’t mean that this is a permanent pattern. Older shows aren’t unlikely to bottom out at some point.

    Nice double negative. Also, an incorrect statement – older shows do not bottom out in the ratings; they continue to decline (as do ratings in general). It’s reasonable to assume that a show’s ratings will continue to decline.

    spring ratings are lower than fall ratings

    During a given broadcast year. Fall ratings are usually similar to the previous spring’s. Again, it’s reasonable to use a show’s April/May ratings as a baseline for the following season.

    you–once again conveniently–point to Elementary’s average as being indicative of its ratings superiority.

    My primary comparison was the Elementary’s LOW was equivalent to The Mentalist’s expected AVERAGE.

    The 2.3 you would expect TM to score on Thursdays is probably a wild, not an educated guess.

    At least I showed my work; you’re the one making wild guesses.

    Elementary isn’t unlikely to decline further.

    Again with the double negative – please tell me that English isn’t your first language.

    I made no assumptions about Elementary’s future ratings. It could continue to decline, or could hang around a 2.3 to 2.5 average in the fall. My comparison was an up-to-this-point one.

  • Ultima

    @Declan
    Can someone tell me why CBS moved it in the first place?

    Because Thursday 10pm is a much better for premiering a new show than Sunday night is.

    @Lauren
    Could someone confirm that for me please or explain it?

    The Mentalist is produced by Warner Bros, so any non-ad revenue it generates (primarily off network syndication, but also international syndication, dvd, streaming, etc.) doesn’t go to CBS.

    This makes it less valuable to CBS than a CBS-owned drama of similar (or lower) ratings.

    @KJ Styles
    CSI NY was only renewed last season because they didn’t want to premiere two new dramas on Fridays. It won’t have the same luck this year.

    CSI NY was renewed because it is more profitable to CBS than CSI Miami.

    Actually, the full equation was likely CSI NY on Friday and The Mentalist on Sunday was more vaulable to CBS than The Mentalist on Friday and CSI Miami on Sunday.

  • Riff Rafferty

    I got to hand it to the talent-challenged cast of “Partners.” While their show only continues to exist because it is Tassler’s charitable cause for the year, there they all are, plugging away on Twitter with one hateful Tweet after another. Good idea, guys. When your new series is in the Nielsen toilet, make sure to get right on the internet and insult half the audience every single day. Really convinced me to start watching more so those ratings just go right through that roof!

  • Daniel

    I know it’s supposed to be all about scripted shows, but what about Survivor? Is it likely to be renewed to S27/28? It’s doing solid against a tough competition (The Middle, X Factor and Arrow – surprisingly getting 1.0+) but the ratings keep falling season to season.

  • Cerebro

    Jake said: “And why isn’t Hawaii 5-0 not on the list? The ratings have been horrible for it this season.”

    Because it, already, has an early syndication deal in place. It’s, pretty much, guaranteed at least one more season to fill out the episode quota.

  • The End

    Personally I would put The Good Wife and Vegas as renewal candidates out of the 4. Mostly as I think CSI NY has enough episodes to make CBS enough money from syndication, and of course this is likely the most expensive show of the lot. The Mentalist I think will go.

    The Good Wife seems to do alright when paired with The Amazing Race. And CBS might want to take a chance on Vegas and hope it gets to syndication numbers.

  • Holly

    @The End,

    Personally I would put The Good Wife and Vegas as renewal candidates out of the 4.

    Even after Vegas’s 1.6 this week?

  • gerry

    its all dependent on syndication, and mainly the good wife. as bill ‘the oracle’ gorman has said, ratings don’t have anything to do with good wife.

    they want to sell it. if they find a buyer who will take it at its 88, it will finish out its run. if they want more, something else (i’d go with csiny) will bite the dust instead. and if neither of those happen and cbs is still hanging, that will be the tough call but i still think they’ll carry it longer to make it a prettier sell.

    if cbs doesn’t produce the mentalist, i think its a goner (and i don’t think cbs does).

  • gerry

    @ daniel

    the ratings for survivor are better than all of these shows (i think) and its much less costly to produce. it won’t go anywhere just yet.

  • The End

    @Holly

    The numbers may uptick and stabilise some, which would make it a good choice for renewal. If they don’t I would add it to the cancellation list and can just see The Good Wife returning.

    Good Wife is a decent fit with The Amazing Race, granted the numbers haven’t been as good lately but they may improve.

    So my bet would be 2 cancellations, 3 if Vegas drops further, with 1 of the shows Bill listed returning(Good wife)

  • Shawn1

    @Ultima: Perhaps I used the term “insinuate” to give you the benefit of the doubt. Maybe I used double negatives as a form of understatement to explain that we sometimes can’t just state certain things as fact due to all the different variables involved. I suppose you’re more into hyperbole than litotes…

    Just a few “corrections” (based on my perspective):

    1) A show in its fifth season is more likely to have stable ratings than a new show with only three episodes in the books. Just look at Vegas that lost as much as 20% of its viewers in week 4. It’s true that older dramas’ ratings decline as well, just not as much as those of new ones.

    2) A show’s ratings in April can be indicative of what to expect in the following fall, however, correlation doesn’t imply causation. Thus, we could both find examples where spring ratings did and did not match fall ratings. Given that TM was able to score a 2.1 twice on Sundays, I just don’t think that right now a 2.3 would be the show’s “expected average” on Thursdays with a significantly better lead-in, less competition and no delays.

    3) Again, Elementary’s average is useless at this point. As mentioned, Vegas dropped a whopping 20% in week 4. Elementary hasn’t bottomed out just yet and needs to stop the bleeding to be perceived as the success you seem to think it is.

    Yes, you did show your work and I appreciate the well-stated point of view. I guess I’m just not as convinced of your opinion as you are and dislike the bravado in your comments. We both know there’s no right and wrong, no true or false to what we’re discussing here, only some educated guessing.

    That said, I believe my arguments are reasonable enough to conclude that TM would do better than Vegas, TGW and CSI: NY (definitely) and Elementary (probably). It’s not impossible, though, that I’ll have to eat crow as soon as Thursday’s ratings stop being unavailable…

  • Zach

    It will be Vegas for sure and either CSI: NY or The Mentalist. The Good Wife is to critically like so it should get another season. Vegas will definitely be cancelled. Even if is sticks around the viewership it has no the demo is still awful. Elementary is a definitely renewal. It gets a good number in the demo and is one of top DVR’d shows.

  • KJ Styles

    @Ultima- Actually, the full equation was likely CSI NY on Friday and The Mentalist on Sunday was more vaulable to CBS than The Mentalist on Friday and CSI Miami on Sunday.

    How do you figure that? Especially when CSI NY was lower rated than CSI Miami and CBS owns both? Not to mention that Miami’s making a killing in it’s syndication deals, much more so than NY which only airs on TNT every now and then.

  • omabin

    Honestly, I put Vegas out of the equation at this point. It’s one out of CSI NY, The Mentalist and The Good Wife that will get the axe. One important thing is that I doubt CBS will rebuild the entire sunday night at once. I think they will want at least one of The Good Wife/The Mentalist to remain there. So this is what I see happening:

    A) CSI NY is renewed for yet another season and the friday lineup remains unchanged: UndercoverBoss-CSINY-Blue Bloods. CBS axes either the good wife or the mentalist and moves H50 to Sundays at 9.

    B) CSI NY is canceled and CBS moves the good wife to fridays at 9pm to lead blue bloods at 10. The Mentalist remains for one more season at 10pm sundays, with H50 taking the 9pm spot.

    C) CSI NY is canceled and CBS moves the mentalist to fridays at 9pm to lead blue bloods at 10. A combo of H50/The Good Wife occupies sundays, even with dubious ratings.

    New shows are then debuted on Monday and Tuesday at 10pm. This is not what I hope happens neither what do i think would be best for CBS. It’s just what i think is more likely. I think huge gains could come from an H50 move to Tuesdays and I am also not entirely convinced that sacrificing lont-term potential for the show in prol of elementary, which it has came down to, is on CBS best interests. Also, i think it’s possible that one of the Tuesday-Thursday 9pm dramas anchors fall to a point in which CBS is not willing to let them have a 9pm hour anymore, in which case it would most certainly move to the troubled Monday at 10pm. This however would require a strong development slate from CBS and would likely give one of the bubble shows some leeway to score yet another renewal, as a backup plan.

  • RandomCommentor

    IIRC in an interview last year The Mentalist showrunners stated they were going to do 2 more seasons then end the Red John stuff, which is the reason I assumed CBS moved it Sundays to burn it off for the remaining 2 seasons (though the final one may be a partial 13).

    That’s why I’m not betting the The Mentalist getting cancelled this year – I’m assuming if the ratings are bad enough WB will do the usual thing and give out the last season practically for free to wrap it up and CBS burns it over the summer.

    That said, it’s not like CBS has had that much success on Sundays at 10 in some time.

  • MB

    I agree with Matt D.: “Vegas” and “CSI:NY.”

  • mr.awesome

    How i met your mother is doing well in ratings but it’s likely this is it’s final season for vaious reasons check out:
    http://www.starpulse.com/news/Kevin_Olsta/2012/09/25/himym_starts_final_season_maybe
    I really like the show and am not opposed to a renewal but I think its more important the show gets a good wrap up.

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