CBS: Two Of 'CSI:NY,' 'The Good Wife,' 'The Mentalist' & 'Vegas' Will Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F) canceled 0.36*
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.48
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.67
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.69
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.74
Partners :oops: 0.81
Vegas :| :| :| 0.82
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.94
Elementary :) :) :) :) 1.00
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.42
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.82

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Since 2006-7, CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall except one (just 2 in 2008-9) , so CBS typically cancels three of its Fall dramas to make room for three more the next Fall. (Edit: my miscount, there were 3 in 2008-9, thanks Riff!)

With the early cancellation of Made In Jersey, that leaves two more of the current Fall dramas left to be canceled.

Because of the wide gap in relative ratings, they'll pick those two canceled shows from among their four drama ratings "have nots": CSI:NY, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Vegas.

Sadly, as a wise man who's much closer to the syndication gods than I am noted, we don't have a good handle on what will go into the decision on which two of those four shows get the hook (primarily because syndication economics are invisible to us), but we don't need to in order to know that at least two will go.

Of course, CBS doesn't *always* cancel three Fall dramas.  CBS could cancel three and then un-cancel one as they did with Unforgettable last season. And in the Fall of 2011, CBS held Undercover Boss off the schedule, opening up an hour, which allowed them to cancel just two dramas in the 2010-11 season. But unless CBS does the same next fall with Survivor or Amazing Race, or replaces an hour of sitcoms with a drama (all of which would be a much bigger surprise), that's not going to happen this season.

Note: if mid-season drama Golden Boy is renewed for another season, three of the above dramas will have to be canceled.

Yes, we'll rehash this same topic so many times in these weekly posts as to grind it into atomic sized dust. There's not much else to talk about with CBS shows this season, or any other. Buckle up!

Why aren't Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods on that list? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules of Engagement, at some point this season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Jesse Cardoza

    PLEASE!!!! Keep CSI: NY and Vegas. NY has gotten interesting as it shows the personal life of the team and Vegas is one of the new shows that are entertaining.

  • jj

    Cancel The Good Wife and Elementary.

  • Riff Rafferty

    Since 2006-7, CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall except one (just 2 in 2008-9)

    The Mentalist, Eleventh Hour, The Ex List. No exceptions.

    Do they have a 3-drama minimum? Sure looks it, because they sure as hell didn’t have the goods for it this fall. Come on, guys, you have enough hit dramas. You need new hit comedies now. Unless you’re banking on the 15th season of “Two and a Half Men” and the 13th season of “Your Mother.”

  • kenny1949

    I expect Vegas to be cancelled. I am not surprised its ratings are low. As someone who lived in the 60′s that show never felt right. Nobody smokes on the show in an era when everyone smoked. Women had jobs in professions that they would never have gotten back before women’s liberation. I hope the Mentalist gets cancelled as that seems to be the only way the Red John story will ever be resolved. The most unappealing episodes are the ones that feature Red John. The writers seem unable to figure out what to do after Red John so they drag that story on and on and drag the ratings down with each Red John red herring.

  • sailingsam

    Good Wife is really great! If CBS cancels it, CBS is stupid!

  • The End

    @sailingsam

    The Good Wife won’t be cancelled. I’m almost certain of that, it ‘may’ be in some trouble but the likelihood of renewal, at least in my opinion is quite high. Season 5 is not a matter of ‘if’ but ‘when’.

    You can rest easy there.

  • Kyle

    Didn’t read the comments so it might have been addressed already, but I’m pretty sure Survivor isn’t coming back next season. It seems as if Jeff is getting tired of it, and I have heard that S26 is an All Stars season. It seems like a great time to end it.

    So isn’t it possible that they will have that hour left open?

  • Hepha

    Friday is a tough night, and CBS is not sure at all to find something better than the pair CSI NY / Blue Bloods. They’re working well together ! So I would say The Good Wife and Vegas. Elementary is not steady yet, so it just might be one of the cancelled.
    But of course, we’ll have to see the ratings in the next weeks… I hope CSI NY will be renewed. Even though it’s in danger, they’re not closer to the cancellation than last year ! So we’ll see !

  • Wesley

    Since Vegas is in its first season, shouldn’t we assume that’ll be one that goes? Unless ratings pick up over the coming weeks. Especially since the CSI franchise is fairly valuable and already has a syndication deal in place.

    My best guess: CSI:NY sticks around, and it comes down to which series they think can be milked the longest (or which series is cheapest) between The Good Wife and The Mentalist.

    Does The Good Wife already have a syndication deal? If not, would that give it an edge over The Mentalist, since more episodes would make it more attractive? Or does a pre-existing syndication deal for The Mentalist mean an advantage?

  • Charlie

    Please be Good Wife and CSI: NY! I love Vegas and like the Mentalist

  • Court

    I love csi:ny went to last get to one more . Place bring it back for season 10 Csiny it has big fan of and not the only one love the show.

  • Court

    Than keep csiny your pass off Canada.

  • Pete

    The obvious choices to cancel are CSI-NY…never should have been renewed over CSI-Miami last year….said it would be paired with Made in Jersey so that’s why it was renewed…didn’t work out too well did it?…and The Good Wife…also should be been canceled last year due to low ratings.

  • Rachel

    I would be devastated if The Mentalist was cancelled, it is defiantly the best of the shows on the bubble

  • tj

    Because of the fact that the good wife was beaten by American Dad that should go. I personally think that CSI:NY is picking up the slack this season and also it most likely makes CBS the most money being a csi plus by end of season it is 2 episodes away from the 200 milestone. last they should cancel either Vegas or elementary, like last season POI clearly dominated new drama spot and uforgettable won’t make it past this second season during the summer. I thought that when mentalist was on thurs that it did good, and CSI: Miami was chewed up during that 10 pm slot

  • Geri

    Seems every year you write off “The Good Wife”, and every year you’re wrong. Sure hope your batting average doesn’t change.

  • Josh

    I don’t understand why people are not watching The Good Wife it is an amazing scripted show with amazing actors. I really do hope if they decide to cancel it they do give it a final season as it is one show i believe deserves a proper send off not just a sudden cancellation. I hope CSI New York gets axed instead as it is just….blah. Never watched Vegas and the Mentalist i have not watched in a while…so i pray The Good Wife gets renewed…. Please watch it guys. I don’t think they should have moved the Good Wife to Sunday nights….

  • Josh

    and i agree CSI Miami should have got renewed… Not CSI NY

  • Josh

    What do you mean bad ratings last year? The Good wife did amazing last year. amazing steady ratings…

  • jeffrey

    MY FAMILY AND I LOVE THE MENTALIST. MY TEENAGERS SONS AND I SIT IN FRONT OF THE TELEVISION EACH SUNDAY EVENING WATCHING FAITHFULLY. DURING COMMERCIAL BREAKS WE TALK ABOUT LIFE, SCHOOL, PLUS WHATEVER IS IMPORTANT TO THEM. ARE YOU ASKING WHY AM I YELLING AKA CAPS… sometimes you need to raise your voice to be heard.

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