CW: Woefully Rated 'Nikita' Is Likely To Be Renewed; Wait, WHAT??!!

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.37
Gossip Girl final season 0.49
90210 :| :| :| 0.62
Emily Owens, M.D. :| :| :| 0.62
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.74
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 1.17
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.79

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Nikita premiered with a "look away" bad 0.3 adults 18-49 rating for its third season. However, when the CW renewed the already poorly rated Nikita for a third season last spring, co-owner Warner Brothers (that produces Nikita) put a stake in the ground that should get it a fourth season to reach 88 episodes for stripped syndication. The other co-owner of the CW, CBS, has done this before with their low rated dramas (most recently, The Good Wife), and I predict will do it again (Blue Bloods, Hawaii Five-0).

I'm not going to guarantee Nikita will air during the broadcast season, perhaps the CW will do with it as they have America's Next Top Model and push it off to a mostly or all summer schedule, but those 88 episodes are going to get made, last spring's renewal all but guarantees it.

Emily Owens, MD premiere ratings were woeful too, and it'll probably be in the headline next week.

Because the folks at the CW seem to like short final seasons for their veteran shows, I assume 90210 will be renewed for a 13 episode final season next year, even with its terrible ratings. They could certainly change their tune and cancel it though if schedule time next season gets tight.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Jamie

    9O21O should not be used to prop up “The Carrie Diaries” in the Spring.

    Monday
    8:00-9:00PM The Carrie Daries
    9:00-10:00PM 9O21O

    Tuesday
    8:00-9:00PM Hart of Dixie
    9:00-10:00PM Beauty and The Beast

    Wednesday
    8:00-9:00PM Arrow
    9:00-10:00PM Supernatural

    Thursday
    8:00-9:00PM The Vampire Diaries
    9:00-10:00PM CULT

    Friday
    8:00-9:00PM Arrow (R)
    9:00-10:00PM Nikita

  • hammard

    How might the CBS factor affect renewal chances?
    Unless I’m mistaken 90210 and Beauty and the Beast are the only 2 scripted shows on the network made by CBS right, with all the others being WB properties?
    Will they insist on keeping at least one of these shows on the network next year even if the ratings are low due to joint ownership?

  • Dillan

    Even if it’s for syndication, I can’t see Nikita getting renewed with that awful 0.3.

  • alexjones

    nikita likely to be renewed, well that’s a surprise, I was expecting a toss up at best. Well I like nikita so I hope your prediction is correct.

  • Domdh

    Not First

  • SPM

    CW you are pathetic.

  • iMember

    I can’t see 9O21O getting renewed after this season, even if for a final season. I don’t think it’ll be worth it for the CW given how badly Gossip Girl is doing in its final season.

    Also, mid-season they are going to have to do some moving around. 9O21O will need to air at 9, because it should NOT be a lead-in for The Carrie Diaries or else that will fail as well.

    Whether or not Beauty and the Beast gets a full season pick up, I don’t see it remaining after The Vampire Diaries. Either it’s going to replace Emily Owens after Hart of Dixie OR it’s going to be moved to Fridays as a lead-in for Nikita. Then, CULT will be placed after TVD.

    I also see Hart of Dixie coming to an end this season. Again, it won’t be worth it for the CW to keep around.

  • Kelly

    Nikita is the best show the CW have ever had, the ratings don’t speak for the quality, if the world was justified it’d be their top rated.

  • Sid

    “CW you are pathetic.”

    Said the guy who’s been trolling every CW related thread. ;)

  • John A

    Ok why didnt CW renew Nikita for a season 3 and 4 last may? Doesnt ordering 2 seasons together make it cheaper and for syndication?

  • agnes

    I don’t understand, didn’t Arrow get higher ratings than TVD? Why is it ranked lower than TVD?

  • RyanCanada

    i hope BATB getting renewed

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “How might the CBS factor affect renewal chances?
    Unless I’m mistaken 90210 and Beauty and the Beast are the only 2 scripted shows on the network made by CBS right, with all the others being WB properties?
    Will they insist on keeping at least one of these shows on the network next year even if the ratings are low due to joint ownership?”

    I’ve wondered if the CW decisions of past seasons might be related to the relative number of shows by studio, but I’ve never tried to look at the data, and now in my laziness I am unlikely to, but it might be interesting.

  • Ultima

    @agnes
    I don’t understand, didn’t Arrow get higher ratings than TVD?

    No.

    Arrow – 1.3, 1.3

    TVD – 1.6, 1.3

  • SPM

    @Sid

    Yawn always a troll if you say something you dont wanna hear.

  • Paleonut

    Oh how I love seeing those little green men hanging out with Supernatural!

    Very glad to see the Arrow/Supernatural pairing doing so well…The CW finally got me hooked on SPN’s lead-in show! The only downside is that now I have to stay offline an extra hour on Wed to avoid spoilers!

  • Sid

    @agnes

    Because TVD premiered with a 1.6

    Average a 1.6 with a 1.3 and average two 1.3′s and TVD still comes out on top.
    It wouldn’t surprise me to see Arrow surpassing TVD soon though. TVD is getting a bit stale.

  • agnes

    @Ultima

    Yes.
    They both scored 1.3 for the 2nd week.
    Arrow retained all of its audience.
    Arrow also reached a higher number for total viewers.

  • agnes

    @Sid

    I like both shows, I just think Arrow deserved to be in the #1 spot now.

  • KS

    My predictions for CW renewals:

    :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
    1.Supernatural
    2.Arrow
    3.The Vampire Diaries

    :| :| :|
    1.90210
    2.Nikita

    :Cry:
    1.Gossip Girl
    2.Emile Owens MD
    3.Beauty and the Beast

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