CW: Woefully Rated 'Nikita' Is Likely To Be Renewed; Wait, WHAT??!!

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.37
Gossip Girl final season 0.49
90210 :| :| :| 0.62
Emily Owens, M.D. :| :| :| 0.62
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.74
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 1.17
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.79

-
Nikita premiered with a "look away" bad 0.3 adults 18-49 rating for its third season. However, when the CW renewed the already poorly rated Nikita for a third season last spring, co-owner Warner Brothers (that produces Nikita) put a stake in the ground that should get it a fourth season to reach 88 episodes for stripped syndication. The other co-owner of the CW, CBS, has done this before with their low rated dramas (most recently, The Good Wife), and I predict will do it again (Blue Bloods, Hawaii Five-0).

I'm not going to guarantee Nikita will air during the broadcast season, perhaps the CW will do with it as they have America's Next Top Model and push it off to a mostly or all summer schedule, but those 88 episodes are going to get made, last spring's renewal all but guarantees it.

Emily Owens, MD premiere ratings were woeful too, and it'll probably be in the headline next week.

Because the folks at the CW seem to like short final seasons for their veteran shows, I assume 90210 will be renewed for a 13 episode final season next year, even with its terrible ratings. They could certainly change their tune and cancel it though if schedule time next season gets tight.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • coonio

    That would be awesome if Nikita gets renewed for a 4th season, It’s my second favorite show on tv after Castle

  • JimTV!!!

    I think that 90210 will in fact get a shortened final season. I was thinking put it on in summer. Summer seasons really helped the original 90210!!! Plus the CW needs more scripted shows for summer. Summer would also be good for Nikita. This way both shows fans get what they want another season. What are you all’s thoughts about this?

  • John A

    Why would CW renew 90210? Its at 0.4 imagine next fall what a 0.2?

  • Bizarro

    Hart doesn’t not deserve to be cancelled. I hope it does better though but it does have good DVR numbers which the CW does take into consideration for non freshman shows. I would be pissed if Hart does do better and gets cancelled and Nikita stays on to give the network 0.2’s and 0.1’s next season. They’ll move it to the summer and it would be a hit for them and they will kill a character or two off and give the actors a pay cut because with their ratings they won’t be getting a raise and they probably won’t be shown during any other time of the year. Maybe they well do 13 eps for a fourth and fifth season in the summer. That way the show will stay in the summer and not affect the CW in the fall and Nikita fans will be happy because their show will live on longer.

  • Keith

    Nikita should be moved to Wednesday after Arrow. This would be a great block and the Arrow lead should provide some help.

  • were123

    The avarege on CW scripted shows, as it is right now, is around 0.7 and 0.6.
    So far, this are safe shows:
    TVD, Arrow, Supernatural and Beauty & The Best (but only as long as it doesn’t fall futher, is it does it’s a goner). Nikita is a plus one, because of syndication values.
    Bubble shows are: 90120 (final season still likely), Hart of Dixie.
    Goners: Emily Owens M.D
    The CW might as well start promoting the hell out of Cult and Carrie Dairies, only three of nine of their shows does well, one does avarage and the rest are outright flops

  • PV

    Renewed: The Vampire Diaries, Arrow, Supernatural, Hart Of Dixie, 90210, Nikita

    They usually cancel 3 shows. Gossip Girl is ending in december. Emily Owens is already dead and B&B is slowly dying. I have no guesses for Carrie Diaries and Cult. But I think at least one of them will survive.

  • were123

    @Jason50
    I think they should focus on sci-fi/superhero/fantasy programming, it’s the only genre that actually bodes well for The CW! The top rated shows it has right now are from that genre (TVD, Arrow, Supernatural, Beauty and The Beast to some extent and as long as it doesn’t drop further). The CW could start almost each night with a well stablished genre show, but of course they still have to keep some bagagge of their old type drama. This could be their schedule:

    Mondays:
    8- Carrie Dairies / Cult (the one that performs the best)
    9- 90210 (final 13 episodes)/ Alice in Wonderland

    Tuesdays:
    8- Supernatural (established genre show)
    9- THE HUNDRED

    Wensdays
    8- Arrow
    9- Amazon

    Thursdays
    8- The Vampire Diaries
    9- Embrace/ Abaddons Journal

    Fridays:
    8- ANTM
    9- Nikita

    Another option for Fridays should Nikita and ANTM air on the summer instead of the regular season:
    8- Cult
    9- Beauty & The Beast (if it holds rating, otherwise cancelled) / Misfits

    This way The CW will be getting rid of their usual drama and start a bran that offers fantasy/sci-fi/action shows, they can do a lot with that and offer a lot with it. They could make a lot of slogans like “Magic is on TV”, “Action now” or any other (I’m not so good with slogans xD), but they can make a brand with it, and Supernatural, Arrow and TVD can help building that brand

  • Brandy

    Lyreco, Harts doing the same as it did last season and it got renewed.
    Keith, Nikita had prime spot with VD in season one, underperformed and was the lowest rated show renewed that seaso which is why it’s on Fri..Theyre not going going to waste Arrow/SPN great ratings to put a failing show (Nikita ) with Arrow.If they wanted to do that, they would’ve done it.Nikitas in season three, it’s ratings aren’t going to improve and it won’t grow it’s audience anymore(first two seasons are highest rated)& moving it wouldn’t improve it’s ratings.Plus, Wed. competition:Idol,XFactor, Csi, Criminal Minds,Modern Family Nikita would be creamed.You’re lucky for the Fri Factor.

  • PV

    I love HoD and I don’t see it getting axed. It was in a much worse situation last year and CW decided to keep it. Now it’s performing better than half of the shows in the network, (actually it’s in the 4th place in the network, If it’s considered that B&B has TVD as lead in and has only 3 episodes and it’s only a tent above HoD this week) and it’s a cheap show to produce. I see them keeping HoD until season 4 at least.

  • Jason50

    @were123- I think this maybe the last season that CW is trying out the teen/young adult female dramas like Carrie Diaries and Emily Owens. Next year it looks like everything they’re developing so far has a supernatural, superhero, or fantasy theme. The only catch is that most of these shows will be in that teen/young adult setting. It’s like they are merging the teen dramas with the scifi/fantasy shows. It may work for them.

  • John A

    Nikita after Arrow? Crazy suggestion why waste the lead in on that?

  • Brandy

    Jason50, CW picked up Confessions of a Backup Dancer, which is a young adult female show

  • Brandy

    I wonder what CW will do if they go almost all superhero,scifi,fantasay and the fantasay fad & superhero trend go out soon along with the supernatrual trend which will die soon once Twilight BD2 comes out.

  • Bizarro

    For you guys saying ANTM is a horribel lead in are probably just jealous that it is doing better than Nikita! Nikita is in season 3 it doesn’t really need a lead in to help its ratings its not new. You just have to hope people will still watch it and that seems to not be working!

  • Brandy

    Bizzaro, finally someone tells it like it is.ive been thinking and saying the same thing.If people wanted to watch Nikita,really wanted to watch, they would, no matter what show it’s paired with.

  • Brandy

    Bizzaro, you’re so right.Ive been thinking and saying the same thing.If people really wanted to watch Nikita,they would, no matter what show it’s paired up with.People seem to be tuning out of Nikita like crazy since season two.

  • Jason50

    Thanks for the update Brandy. I also found REIGN and WRECKING BALL which are also in development. Reign I think is also a young adult female show but it might also be supernatural. I didn’t read too much into it, trying finish work to going home.

  • Moe

    Well, Supernatural’s ratings may have gone down this week, but it looks like it’s still the #3 show for the week for the CW! And I am really keeping my fingers crossed it goes back up next week. Looks like a great ep coming up, focus on the Purgatory storyline (which is awesome), no World Series and NO SHAKY CAM story with focus on three teens most viewers could care less about! So hopefully, we will see an increase back to our 1.0!

  • mr.awesome

    Arrow is the only show I care about that must get a renewal I’m happy it’s looking good.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures