CW: Woefully Rated 'Nikita' Is Likely To Be Renewed; Wait, WHAT??!!

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.37
Gossip Girl final season 0.49
90210 :| :| :| 0.62
Emily Owens, M.D. :| :| :| 0.62
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.74
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 1.17
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.79

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Nikita premiered with a "look away" bad 0.3 adults 18-49 rating for its third season. However, when the CW renewed the already poorly rated Nikita for a third season last spring, co-owner Warner Brothers (that produces Nikita) put a stake in the ground that should get it a fourth season to reach 88 episodes for stripped syndication. The other co-owner of the CW, CBS, has done this before with their low rated dramas (most recently, The Good Wife), and I predict will do it again (Blue Bloods, Hawaii Five-0).

I'm not going to guarantee Nikita will air during the broadcast season, perhaps the CW will do with it as they have America's Next Top Model and push it off to a mostly or all summer schedule, but those 88 episodes are going to get made, last spring's renewal all but guarantees it.

Emily Owens, MD premiere ratings were woeful too, and it'll probably be in the headline next week.

Because the folks at the CW seem to like short final seasons for their veteran shows, I assume 90210 will be renewed for a 13 episode final season next year, even with its terrible ratings. They could certainly change their tune and cancel it though if schedule time next season gets tight.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Vance

    I maintain that Nikita will be cancelled after season 3.

  • Riff Rafferty

    Congratulations, The CW, on your new ‘hit’ series, “Arrow.” Finally! At last! Just what Hollowood has been waiting for! A show that has the balls to take on the 1%!

    As opposed to “90210,” “Gossip Girl,” “Hart of Dixie,” “Emily Owens, M.D.,” “Supernatural,” “Beauty and the Beast,” “America’s Next Top Model,” “Nikita,” “Oh Sit,” “Breaking Pointe,” “The Catalina” and “The Next” — which are watched by 1%.

  • suzie

    Will Nikita still get renewed if it pulls consistent 0.1s or 0.2s?

    I bet Nikita’s woeful rating are annoying TSC fans, I know I would be slightly pissed.

  • Xymena

    Nikita likely to be renewed?
    It’s cool :)
    And people… SHOULD WATCH THIS SHOW!!!

  • Kelvin

    Here’s what I’d like to see for mid-season

    MONDAY
    Cult
    Nikita

    TUESDAY
    Hart of Dixie
    The Carrie Diaries

    WEDNESDAY
    Arrow
    Supernatural

    THURSDAY
    The Vampire Diaries
    Beauty and the Beast

    FRIDAYS
    90210 – moved from Mondays, the series ends here
    Arrow (R)

    * Emily Owens MD off the schedule
    * Have Mondays go from female-skewing to male-skewing. The current 90210/GG lin-up no longer works. Having Cult as a lead in for Nikita might work. It’s worth a shot. Worst case scenario? Nikita remains at <0.4. It's probably going to get another season anyway for syndication.
    * 90210 is no Smallville or One Tree Hill or Gossip Girl, just end it this season.

  • tv log

    Wonder Woman type of Smallville background coming next fall! Wait CW! Phoebe Tonkin is Australian! She has guest starred Diaries this season! Last season she co starred on Secret Circle, I don’t understand why that show was not renew! NBC tried Bionic Woman reboot with British actress Michelle Ryan! It failed reach second half of full season! CW Best luck!

  • omabin

    Yeah I am not worried about hart of dixie either, I agree. Last year was far harder for the show. It amazed me the whole year. It debuted as the networks’ step-child when compared to the ringer or secret circle. Everyone thought it would be dead soon. After a while, it became clear that only one between him and Ringer would survive. It beat Ringer, which at the beggining looked impossible. Then it moved on to beat the secret circle, which was in a far better timeslot (for the record, i really enjoyed the secret circle in the second half of the season and was deeply sad about its cancelation). But Hart is a fighter show, i think it will be fine

  • thesnowleopard

    I suppose it’s possible they could just cut their losses on Nikita and cancel the season early, run it until Christmas or burn off the rest of the episodes next summer if things get too bad. That would solve the “We’re almost to syndication” problem. It depends on what’s in the contract between the network and the studio and how many episodes they’ve already produced. Yeah, the show would be at 66 episodes by the end of the season, uncomfortably close to syndication. But it’s only at 46 now, which is barely over halfway there. And it’s already tanking to epic depths.

    The usual industry wisdom about syndication is all very well, but networks get unpredictable when a show tanks like this. And they’ve still got three shows to run in the spring.

  • Tom

    @ Suzie “I bet Nikita’s woeful rating are annoying TSC fans, I know I would be slightly pissed.”

    Darn right. Fortunately, Grimm is getting better all the time, so I simply stopped watching Nikita. Furthermore, putting a pathetic show like B&B in TSC’s former time slot, green lighting trash like Emily Owens and leaving an equally lousy show like Hart on the schedule also represent pretty good reasons to abandon the CW. It’s like Pedowitz is deliberately trying to drive viewers away.

  • pal

    Eh. I watched tsc, ringer, and nikita last season and I would agree with the network’s cancel decisions. I loved charmed and really wanted to love tsc. But it just never became the show I wanted to watch. The writing is horrible with too much poorly acted teen sex scenes. I did stay for the 22 episodes but honestly there wasn’t much story at the end…at all.

    As people have pointed out, Nikita is a better show but landed on the wrong network. Spy/action shows skew male but gets landed after a model show at Friday 9pm…

  • david

    I am pretty sure Nikita will get a four season for sindication. I like that the network is going more into Scifi and fantasy shows. Arrow and TVD and for that matter Super Natural prove that it works for them. I am thinking the Selection will start next fall. I think they should give 90210 a short season and end it.

  • Tom

    @ TV Log NBC tried Bionic Woman reboot with British actress Michelle Ryan! It failed reach second half of full season!

    I had to smile when I read your comment because NBC really shot itself in the foot by mishandling the Bionic Woman. The reboot was clearly a bad idea, but what accelerated its decline was the decision to cast Katee Sackhoff as the tortured “defective” predecessor of Ryan’s bionic woman. As was evident from Battlestar Galactica, no one portrays a tormented and bitter soul better than Sackhoff. So, based on her over-the-top portrayal, she ended up pushing Ryan aside and effectively becoming the lead actress. Of course, Sackhoff’s ultimate departure left a huge gap in the storyline that Ryan didn’t have a prayer of filling. I’m not sure if the show would have lasted too much longer anyway, but I’m still curious about what might have happened if Katee Sackhoff had been given the lead instead of Michelle Ryan.

  • Wesley

    Is Nikita really going to be a valuable syndication deal?? I’m trying to imagine who would even pick it up, other than maybe some sort of Netflix / Hulu deal if it’s doing well there. If not, wont it just end up being some low-rated show on a no-name cable network? Best case scenario, maybe Syfy picks it up for syndication?

  • Mark Wood

    Instead of saying it would feel right at home on USa, you might actually put it might. One is a statement of fact, which you nor I can make, the other states a possibility, which you and I can state.

    But one key difference between Nikita and the USA network and thats age. WHile Nikita used to have an older audience (it hasn’t for a while now as its 18-34, 18-49 and 25-54 has been fairly stable for almost 3/4 of a full season counting the two episode to date this season. Most of the USA shows skew much older and thats generally reflected in things like cast. Nikita being made for the CW cast young (for the most part).

    USA also usually (though not always pulls from its own parent companies licenses,a s they generally get those at a reduced rate. THat would also be a barrier that might hurt Nikita’s chance on that specific network. Its also one of the strongest cable network’s. Would they really bother with Nikita? No de service to the quality of Nikita, but even at its best ratings, those ratings have been vastly lower then the general syndicated far that is broadcast on USA.

  • Frank

    @Riff Rafferty
    Supernatural is on season 8, and it has take on the 1% before you! So I don’t know what you are talking about….DICK

  • Frank

    @Riff Rafferty
    Supernatural is on season 8, and it has take on the 1% before! So I don’t know what you are talking about….DICK

  • POI

    i say cancel everything and just keep TVD, ARROW, SUPERNATURAL, air nikita and 90210 final seasons in the summer and if B&B preforms well renew it if u want, one other thing is that if Cult does well u should renew it i know they havent aired it yet but i think im gonna be a fan of that show it looks awesome and should be paired with TVD it may be the only show that can survive there. This way they can bring scifi and action shows for next fall and the network might be saved they might even have many hits at once and built the network up then the cw wont be a flop and people will watch the network. The reason they dont watch the network now because they think its a teen, girl network and that is all Dawns fault and i hope that Mark (correct me if im wrong) will save the network and repair the damage that dawn did . There is a way to prove this theory and it is with arrow as soon as they heard there is a action show on the cw more people than usual checked it out and its a hit for them and it is the only show rite now that can crack over 3 million viewer even TVD fell below the 3 million last season and had only 1 episode ove 3 million this season.

  • david

    The CW has two exclusive web series now. One is called Prom Queen. It’s a drama. Each episode of the show is 15 minutes long. Here is more on that at:
    http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/489950-CW_Licenses_Prom_Queen_Web_Series_for_CWD.php

  • MikeyG

    renewed – SPN, TVD, Arrow
    Likely to be renewed – Hart of Dixie, Nikita, B&B
    Cancelled – Emily Ownens MD, 90210(i had enough of this show)

    i think Nikita should be aired on summer.

  • Bizarro

    Nikita will probably be moved to the summer with ANTM since its ratings are terrible. People aren’t even DVRing the show anymore like last season, unlike Hart, 90210, GG which is showing the CW that people are still watching these shows. M.D. may not make it to January if the CW can find something to replace it with. So they have Cult and Carrie Diaries arriving in January, maybe the CW will show reruns on friday till March comes along with a series. So it looks like their may be a lot of switching going around when the shows return from their winter hiatus.

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