CW: Woefully Rated 'Nikita' Is Likely To Be Renewed; Wait, WHAT??!!

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.37
Gossip Girl final season 0.49
90210 :| :| :| 0.62
Emily Owens, M.D. :| :| :| 0.62
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.74
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 1.17
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.79

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Nikita premiered with a "look away" bad 0.3 adults 18-49 rating for its third season. However, when the CW renewed the already poorly rated Nikita for a third season last spring, co-owner Warner Brothers (that produces Nikita) put a stake in the ground that should get it a fourth season to reach 88 episodes for stripped syndication. The other co-owner of the CW, CBS, has done this before with their low rated dramas (most recently, The Good Wife), and I predict will do it again (Blue Bloods, Hawaii Five-0).

I'm not going to guarantee Nikita will air during the broadcast season, perhaps the CW will do with it as they have America's Next Top Model and push it off to a mostly or all summer schedule, but those 88 episodes are going to get made, last spring's renewal all but guarantees it.

Emily Owens, MD premiere ratings were woeful too, and it'll probably be in the headline next week.

Because the folks at the CW seem to like short final seasons for their veteran shows, I assume 90210 will be renewed for a 13 episode final season next year, even with its terrible ratings. They could certainly change their tune and cancel it though if schedule time next season gets tight.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Sid

    “Yawn always a troll if you say something you dont wanna hear”

    Ditto!

  • Ultima

    @agnes
    Arrow retained all of its audience.

    Doesn’t effect the index.

    Arrow also reached a higher number for total viewers.

    REALLY doesn’t effect the index.

    They both scored 1.3 for the 2nd week.

    Yes. However, the first week’s ratings are also counted, which is why TVD’s index is higher than Arrow’s.

  • Christina

    … I hope there’s hope for The L.A. COMPLEX!

  • agnes

    @hammard

    Every season both CBS and WB have equal amount of TV shows.
    Most of the time WB shows get picked up more, so CBS would just co-produce it.
    This year 90210, BATB and ANTM are CBS.
    Arrow, Carrie Diaries and Supernatural are WB.
    The rest of them are being co-produced by both studios, but WB has all the international rights, except for MD which goes to CBS

  • Michael

    At least, CW has three shows above the 1.0 mark. Since 2009, Vampire Diaries was the only show that went above a 1.0 continuously. A step in the right direction, Mark Pedowitz!

  • agnes

    @anonymous

    Are you a jealous marvel fanboy?
    Please grow up.

  • ivan

    cw is cw it can renew dumb cheap reality shows with a .2 and .3 but nikita is far from cheap i think so i dont know what exacly they will win with that cyndication when spending so much on another 22 episodes and this 22 episodes i think they will even lose

  • agnes

    @ivan

    Nikita is a huge international seller. HUGE.

  • Kyle

    @ Bill Gorman
    You’re annoying and somwehat rude at times

  • Alexis

    My ideal CW schedule for the second half of the season:

    Monday
    8pm – Nikita
    9pm – Cult

    Tuesday
    8pm – Hart of Dixie
    9pm – The Carrie Diaries

    Wednesday
    8pm – Arrow
    9pm – Supernatural

    Thursday
    8pm – The Vampire Diaries
    9pm – Beauty and the Beast

    Friday
    8pm – 90210
    9pm – Emily Owens, M.D.

    Explanation:
    – Nikita is deader than a doornail on Fridays, so moving it can’t hurt. Pairing it with Cult makes sense – two edgy, dark shows, and Cult is another show likely to skew more male (and older) than the typical CW audience. I put Nikita at 8 and Cult at 9 rather than vice versa because Cult looks quite creepy and disturbing.
    – With EMOD getting a 0.5 on its SERIES PREMIERE, which is god-awful by any standard, it looks DOA. Granted, its series premiere was up against the debates, but it’s still unlikely to rise significantly, so it might as well be moved to Fridays to die there. 90210 is also on its last legs, with two 0.4?s in the first three episodes. It’s not even guaranteed the shortened final season that One Tree Hill and Gossip Girl got if it doesn’t improve. Both shows skew female, so they’re a reasonably good pairing, and I put EMOD at 9 because it seems to skew older (its overall ratings weren’t bad, the demo was).
    – I’d premiere The Carrie Diaries on Tuesday since I moved 90210 off Monday, so they can’t be paired. HoD/Carrie Diaries seems like a good pairing to me – two cutesy, fluffy, female-skewing shows typical for the network.

    *** I realize there’s not even the slightest chance of this actually happening, so please don’t rip my head off. This is just for fun – how I’d shuffle the schedule around if it were up to me. ***

  • THE OLD MAN

    Not much dispute w/ Bill’s logic here, so agree with entire post

    Nikita does pull in the comments, I must say

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “… I hope there’s hope for The L.A. COMPLEX!”

    I won’t be predicting its fate in these posts, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it back next summer.

    Cheap Canadian dramas for the summer have been the new black for a couple seasons.

  • Jared

    Hart of Dixie seems to be a solid steady performer for the CW. I’m not sure the CW would give up this series so easily. If Emily Owens fails..which is very likely at this point the CW should use HoD as a lead in for The Carrie Diaries.

  • Michael

    “Nikita is a huge international seller. HUGE.”

    Please provide legit sources. This was the problem Bondoel had, he would make claims and could never back it up.

  • leo

    i really hope so, nikita it’s a great show!

  • Michael

    I think the CW should invest in producing a post-discussion show with Vampire Diaries cast as the panelist, discussing the episode. Just like what MTV does with some of their popular shows. This will guarantee TVD fans sticking around for an extra hour.

  • herpderp

    @Michael

    The fact that it’s been renewed despite poor ratings proves it. I’ve been skeptical in the past, but syndication economics all but guarantees it.

  • hammard

    @Agnes

    Ah good to know (although isn’t Cult pure WB as well?). I was wondering if it will make a difference to the renew-cancel as well. If B&TB continues to fall (and Carrie Diaries and Cult are fine) will the CW be forced to keep one of 90210 or B&TB even if they are lower than other shows or will they have more shows picked up next year?
    Also with the moving off of ANTM to summer, will CBS want more programming in the fall-mid season?
    It may be interesting to see how it plays out…

  • Ray

    1. Is there any link between a show’s ratings and the price it can attract in a syndication deal?
    2. If so, isn’t there a rating number below which it no longer makes sense to produce a fourth season? Can producers and writers really be assured that 44=88?

    This is a bit of a straw man, but what if Nikita’s ratings drop further from the premiere’s .3/950K, to something like .1/300K? Or let’s say by the last episode it’s basically friends and family of the cast and crew tuning in.

    Maybe there has been so much bad television the last five years that the syndication pickings are so slim any show which makes it past two seasons is considered a gem.

  • tv#1

    Possible CW mid-season schedule…

    Mon:
    90210
    The Carrie Diaries

    Tue:
    Hart of Dixie
    Emily Owens MD

    Wed:
    Arrow
    Supernatural

    Thur:
    The Vampire Diaries
    Cult

    Fri:
    Beauty and the Beast
    Nikita

    Next Top Model can be saved for the summer or late spring.

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